LongBeachSurfFreak
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About LongBeachSurfFreak
- Birthday 04/13/1982
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80s…
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Droughts tend to be self regulating, as in the extremely low soil moisture disallows moisture transport into the clouds. We need a major storm (tropical) or a nor’easter to draw in moisture off the ocean. Unfortunately that’s not going to happen this current high.
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Or 11/12. Hate to say it because snow removal is part of my income… we need things to change big time and fast.
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Likely very similar to what was reportedly experienced in northern New England after the hurricane of 38. Different storm and setup but terrain, PRE, rapid speed (even faster in 38) net a similar result.
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I just have this Irma North of the islands, at 180mph with that massive 60nm eye IR pic stuck in my head. That exact storm going into south Florida is the true national disaster multi generational storm that will one day happen. Hopefully later rather then sooner because it’s going to bankrupt the insurance industry and affect the entire country… (never mind the local suffering)
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Yeah Andrew further north is obviously a disaster of epic proportions, sky scrapers down to the steal beams. But even that isn’t the worst case scenario as Andrew was small and in that case it’s just Miami. The real killer would be an Irma at peak intensity that crushes the entire corridor to Palm Beach.
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That gust has always been suspect to me. Granted it was in the perfect location to maximize exposure and wind funneling through the harbor on a south east wind. I don’t think it’s representative of what the rest of the city experienced or that storm would have produced prolific tree damage above and beyond any other storm, which from same basic research it did not.
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Excellent post. The luxury factor is a big part of why I think the hurricane of 38 should be higher up the list. The hamptons has some of the most expensive real estate on the planet and was literally ground zero. While there were some estates even in 38 the vast majority of the area was farms and sleepy fishing villages. Miami speaks for itself. That’s the big “yet” I can certainly think of a much worse case then 26. Think Dorian at peak intensity landfalling right in south beach.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
It’s not an exact science, but they use observations of storm size and strength. Mostly ship reports. I’m sure some seasons are under reported as a mid ocean hurricane could have missed ships. -
Tropical cyclone Tracy 1974 the smallest landfalling major in history had a peak surge of 13’. And tropical storm force winds only extened out 30 miles. So yes is is very important but so is intensity.
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Some surprisingly strong winds gusts this afternoon on the uws, we often get enhancement being up in morningside heights right on the Hudson. Some small branches down, so around 40 I would think.
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Yeah it’s bad enough now, luckily most plants are just going to go straight into hibernation. Had it been summer they would have just died. In the 10 years I have been in charge of horticulture for Columbia/Barnard this is the driest stretch I have seen. Usually it’s a couple weeks this time it’s been months.
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In NE PA, rollling thunder and 43 degrees. At least they are getting some drought relief. All the creeks and streams were down to basically a trickle.
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
LongBeachSurfFreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
The good thing is, the Caribbean specifically in the basin between Jamaica and Central America has year round water temps above 26 historically. And it’s doesn’t always produce storms after November, due to other factors mainly shear. The WPAC does however… -
Can barely see a tinge in lynbrook. I’ll be in Pa near the ny state border tomorrow night. Will try again
