SluggerWx

Last two runs of the HRRR show some crazy UH tracks from Laughlin to San Antonio overnight tonight. Anyone else seeing the same thing? Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

SPC AC 240600 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART OF MISSISSIPPI...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A potential outbreak of severe storms including several long track strong tornadoes, large hail and damaging wind will exist Thursday into Thursday evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States. ...Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast States... Shortwave trough currently over the Southwest States will move from southern TX early Thursday through the lower MS Valley during the day and into the OH Valley overnight. Thursday morning a cold front will extend from the Great Lakes southwest to a weak surface low in northeast TX, then south into the western Gulf. In response to the ejecting negative-tilt shortwave trough, the cyclone is forecast by some models to undergo significant deepening as it develops northeast during the day. As this occurs, a cold front will accelerate through the lower MS Valley into the Southeast States, while a warm front initially from northeast TX into northern LA, central MS and southwest AL develops northward into the TN Valley. Some model differences do exist with the NAM being slightly less amplified and more progressive with resulting weaker cyclogenesis. It still appears likely that elevated storms will be in progress at the start of the period within the warm advection regime across northern MS, AL and TN. This activity is expected to continue lifting northward, allowing for destabilization from the south with time. Rich low-level moisture with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will advect northward through warm sector contributing to moderate instability with up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Discrete storms are expected to develop over the lower MS Valley as the surface layer destabilizes during the afternoon. The low-level jet will strengthen to 60+ kt over the lower MS and TN Valleys in response to forcing within exit region of the migratory mid-upper jet accompanying the shortwave trough. Vertical wind profiles with very strong shear and large 0-1 km hodographs (0-1 km helicity from 300-400 m2/s2) will support supercells with low-level mesocyclones capable of producing strong tornadoes and large hail. Some bowing structures are also likely. Activity will spread northeast through the lower MS and TN valleys during the day and into the evening. Additional storms may also develop along the cold front with linear structures capable of damaging wind. A secondary area of thunderstorm development might occur in vicinity of the ejecting vorticity maximum and near and just south of the surface low track from northern AR into southern MO. All hazards will be possible in this region, but threat is more conditional at this time given uncertainty regarding how much destabilization can occur. Will maintain this region in a SLGT for now, but continue to monitor for upgrade to higher probabilities in later updates. ...OH Valley... Widespread rain and thunderstorms will occur over a large part of this region during the day. However, some destabilization should occur, especially during the evening fostered by a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Potential will exist for a forced line of storms to develop along the cold front, near and south of the surface low as it tracks northeast through this region during the evening and overnight. The primary threats will be damaging wind and possibly some QLCS tornadoes. ..Dial.. 03/24/2021

Cullman and Selma cells are really intense - some of the strongest rotation we've seen today. Could be the distance from the RADAR, but they're intensifying. Edit: Cullman had a good 10 minute window but weakened - no longer warned. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

The three cells near Meridian, MS are going to be big trouble. I think we're heading into the potential long-tracker phase of this event. One of them is already warned. Almost pinpoint to the 45 hatched area on the High Outlook from SPC, too. It's kind of interesting how much tornadic activity that has already occurred - it's like the HRRR nailed the storms but lowballed UH swaths by 50%+. We could be heading for a nightmare scenario in Dixie. Heroes at NWS/SPC are going to save many lives tonight as well. Super thankful for those that chase into nightfall and the lives they may help save, too. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

That is amazing footage. Drone footage is a game changer for the Southeast will all the tall pines we have. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

Cell in far SW MS looks pretty intense. Wilkinson County, MS. Jackson livestream here: https://www.wlbt.com/2021/03/17/tornado-watch-issued-across-central-east-miss/

So much has already happened today when I didn't think we'd be discussing debris signatures until dark/after dark. It's scary to think about all this being a precursor to a stronger event within the next few hours...

There's quite a large UH swath that shows up on the HRRR after dark tonight (OK/TX border near Woodward) and tracks almost due E the whole night.

The Madill tornado continues to just mesmerize me - looking at damage today is pretty crazy. It looks like it just exploded in intensity within about 5-10 seconds.

Cloud tops near AL/MS border have been halted at around 32,000 feet the last couple hours. Within the last 15 minutes, cloud tops finally breaking through up to 39,000 ft. Edit: And now SVR warned.

Hard to tell, but latest GOES-16 may be showing some overshooting tops near the border of MS/AL near Philadelphia, MS. Edit: And...they hit a wall.

SVR Warned Cell north of Altus has the 'Flying Eagle' look that always seems to show up with isolated TOR cells. Will be interested in seeing how it evolves.

We've got sisters. Sorry, watched Twister with the kids today. But, that's what it looks like to me.

New cluster of surfaced based supercells have exploded on the SW border of MS in the last 30 minutes.

Hattiesburg could be under the gun in a couple hours. That cell on the MS/LA border looks potent. If you look at GOES-16, three storm cells on the SW border of MS and LA show pretty explosive over the last 30 minutes.

That's pretty crazy... starting on 4/27 there are like 5-6 days in a row. Of course it's la la land range, like you said, but maybe it indicates at least a potential upward trend in plains activity towards the end of April.

It was really interesting to watch the QLCS in South Carolina this morning. Have friends in Greenville so was pinging them in advance of TOR warnings letting them know. At or immediately after Seneca, storm motions were 75mph! I've rarely ever seen an EF-3 tornado moving that fast. Greenville On-Air Mets were having a tough time keeping up. Corellation Coefficient probably saved a lot of lives last night... I just can't remember ever seeing so many clear debris signatures on radar besides 4/27/11. Normally you get some light greens/yellows and maybe a little blue for a scan. We saw so many wide blue dots... It just didn't stop. Here in Woodstock, GA, the QLCS actually didn't churn out a Tornado. Most of North Metro ATL was really spared, and that's one uplifting thing we can take from this very interesting, but tragic event. One side note, I do think they issued the larger TOR watch for Georgia too late. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

I really wish metro ATL and more of the northern ATL suburbs would have been placed under a Tornado Watch prior to the 11PM news cycle. Folks are going to go to bed tonight not even knowing about the Tornado Watch that's likely inbound. Hopefully they've been paying attention, but I wish they would have pulled the trigger by now.

Cell tops in SW MS are now > 40,000 feet.

Didn't expect to see a complete break in the clouds in extreme SW MS in just a couple frames on GOES-16, but there it is. Looks like overshooting tops on visible surround this little clear blob. Wonder if the CAP eroded.

Huge Day 3 MOD posted by SPC https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

I just watched a massively violent tornado rip across the highway in Jonesboro on the Arkansas DOT traffic cams.

PDS Tornado Warning on the Abilene cell, velocity couplet is maxed out across a couple different radar tilts. This is bad news. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

TOR now issued near Muskogee, OK. Tighter rotation on radar, too. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

The cell on the WI/IL border could probably use a TOR warning. Hard to tell with distance to radar. Also, a couple cells south of LaCrosse look interesting. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk