jayyy

Pretty wild to see how different the parent is from the 3k/12k.

That’s reflected in their AFD and the warnings / advisories. They upped totals up north, including Baltimore out to you due to the north trend in short term guidance over the past 18 or so hours. A bit shocked to see a warning here. Not sure that pans out but we’ll see.

Oh, snap. Didn’t even realize LWX put a warning up for my county. temp: 36 cloudy

I actually think you’re in an even better position being in west EC as far as thermals are concerned. I do like the northern and eastern half of HoCo for this, but as you said.... things can go very wrong, very quickly with a tiny shift in any direction. Going to be a tight rope to walk.

Exactly. Think your area is a giant crap shoot over the next few days, but with big upside. I’m sure you’ve noticed that a majority of guidance has that second sweet spot in QPF that slices through the middle of HoCo and points east toward the bay. The GFS, which has been insanely persistent about that precip VA precip hole, has also been very consistent about this QPF jack as well. Think it may be onto something. We shall find out by tomorrow.

Wow. I can’t say I’m totally shocked, but damn I was legitimately rooting for you guys in the big cities. Can’t catch a damn break. Think folks north of 32ish will be fine column wise. I actually like @WxUSAF area for this one. Should be a good spot for QPF but remain cold enough for 90+% snow. Baltimore will be a close call but is definitely in a better spot for wave 1 than dc.

HRDPS, euro and a few other models show that secondary QPF jack from Baltimore metro on east with QPF. Interesting.

We have 4 winter weather events to track in the next 6 days. In a niña winter. That alone is incredible. If we can get a solid 3-6” round 1, a good ice storm this weekend, followed by more snow next week - all as the coldest airmass of the season arrives... woof. one thing is dead certain... the next 7 days will both be and look quite wintry around these parts. Been a long time since we’ve been able to say that.

Models can barely agree on or figure out part 1... let’s worry about part 2 at 0z tomorrow. edit — really nice to see euro go north tonight for round 1. Puts the BWI area in the bullseye

So. Much. Wintry. weather. Here is LWX’s take. High pressure will remain situated off to the north to northwest of our region on Wednesday as a warm front builds near our region. Dry conditions ahead of the warm front building into our region will be dry with light and northerly winds. The warm front is expected to start impacting our region late Wednesday afternoon as overrunning precipitation combines with reinforcing cold air from the north to start the long duration winter event. Precipitation is forecast to impact our region after 18Z Wednesday with main winter impacts beginning after 00Z Thursday. A brief warm up ahead of the precip is expected up into the low 40s on Wednesday but then the high pressure to the north is expected to wedge in cold near to below freezing temps south through the majority of our region.When the winter precipitation begins, some areas in central Virginia will likely experience periods of rain/snow/sleet mix especially down near Charlottesville during the 21Z to 6Z period. Cold air is then expected to filter in for all of our region by Thursday morning leading to a transition to an all snow event. Two rounds of wintry precipitation are likely with this long duration with the first round coming with the overruning precipitation from the warm front located near our region which will mainly be through 15Z Thursday. Mixing of snow and sleet will likely prevent higher snow totals through the first round of precipitation but areas along our Allegheny front zones in western MD, eastern WV and Highland VA could see local amounts upwards of 8 inches. I don`t really have confidence to go further east with higher snow totals for the majority of our region reaching Advisory level snow at the most for the first event. A second round of wintry precipitation is expected as the surface low moves off to our south Thursday afternoon into Friday. This second round will likely be the heaviest snow of the event as cold air will be entrenched throughout the thermal layer and some of the heaviest precipitation is expected to move through our region during this period. Generally the second round of snow is expected to be focused more south of the DC metro and I-66 corridor with the highest totals expected down into central Virginia at this time. There has been a general trend southward with guidance which leads to keep the heaviest snow further south in central Virginia. Some localized enhancing of snow totals further north will be possible due to a low level jet forming Thursday evening and i`m not confident enough to rule out heavier snow reaching further north at this time with the second round. Generally through the full long duration event which is expected to be almost a 48 hour period, the majority our region may see 5 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts possible in central Virginia and along the Allegheny front. After 00Z Wednesday, temperatures at the surface are expected to remain mostly below freeing throughout the event. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... On Friday morning, a trailing shortwave will traverse the stalled frontal zone set up to the south. The band of overrunning snowfall should continue through much of the morning before high pressure builds in for the second half of the day. This may produce another 1 to 3 inches of snow on top of what will have fallen in the previous 36 hours. Mostly cloudy conditions should prevail in the wake which will keep temperatures at, or below the freezing mark in spots aside from central Virginia and southern Maryland. Abundant cloud cover sticks around overnight with low temperatures in the low/mid 20s, teens in the mountains. A rather potent upper low originating from the polar regions is forecast to drop southward from Manitoba and move across the Great Lakes over the weekend. Within the southern stream, another impulse begins to move through the southeastern U.S. and eventually offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. A coastal wave forms with these height falls on Saturday which may introduce additional snowfall to the region. The best chance for accumulations will be west of I-95 given more supportive boundary layer temperatures. Given uncertainty in the timing and position of this system, the rain/snow line will need to be ironed out in future model cycles. Precipitation may linger into Sunday as an Arctic cold front races toward the Eastern Seaboard. It is difficult to say how much snowfall would occur along this advancing boundary with the 12Z GFS being the most robust. The modified Arctic air arrives in earnest by Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. Sunday night`s low temperatures likely drop into the teens east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains with single digits possible elsewhere. For early next week, tranquil conditions are expected for Monday in the wake of the weekend system. A sprawling 1048-mb ridge centered over the Middle Mississippi Valley will extend modified Arctic air into the central/eastern U.S. Monday`s high temperatures should stay at, or below the freezing mark in most locations with teens over the higher mountain peaks. Yet another system is continuing to be monitored with arrival early next Tuesday. Quite a bit of spread exists in the guidance but it continues to bear watching.

I listen to you like gospel, my friend. You’re one of the few folks who are extremely well versed in understanding potential reality v. Verbatim model depictions via your deep knowledge of setups, climo, past analogs, etc. I agree 100%. Anybody within 50-75 miles of the depicted snow Max should definitely not be writing this off. Especially folks in areas such as MoCo, HoCo, NoVA, over toward Baltimore city. How many times do we need to see storms shift in real time before we stop getting burned by kuchera snow maps

Some QPF love for PSUland! The new name for our beloved Carroll county

My guess? A mix of leaning toward the GFS/UKMET side of the envelope and throwing in a bit of “seasonal trend” and “climo” consideration on top. Idc what the setup is.... there’s something to be said about model depiction v. The result. 90+% of threats end up going further north than depicted in the final hours. yes, it’s a different setup... but I’d almost bet the house that Baltimore ends up with 0.5”+ of QPF

There it is.... don’t you scare me like that

Looks like we may do worse with wave 1 but much better with wave 2 on the Gfs. Should pretty much balance out as far as overall QPF versus 12z

It’s like the snow gods purposely bring l storms back north just so Ji can watch everyone around him do better than he does.

Agree. Think things actually look a bit better overall for our immediate area despite the painful verbatim depiction of the sharp cutoff seen on OP runs. Just give me a better look - and let climo and seasonal trends take care of the rest GFS/Ukmet/Para/GEFS/ICON/Rgem/RDPS all bring 0.5”+ QPF to our area. That’s a solid event for us with temps in the upper 20s

I think it’s the cold bias. For example, it’ll depict 0.6” of QPF as all snow with decent ratios, when in reality it’s more like 0.4” of 10:1 ratio or less snow and some potential mixing. It doesn’t do very well depicting mid levels

Hoping to see the GFS / UKMET both come in the same as 12z on their next runs. They’ve been the most consistent.

Because those cutoffs ever verify as depicted. No worries - it’ll be 30 miles north at least. It always is.

Thanks bud!

ICON and RDPS definitely shine a light on what I think is the biggest question mark. Central MD. Just the slightest difference brings much more significant precip to their doorstep. Going to be real close.

Have an image? I’m stuck working in the midst of the organized chaos that is the Apple store! Thx in advance!

This is what I’m saying. Central MD between DC/BAL is still a huge unknown IMO. Models vary from 0.3” to 0.8” in QPF. HUGE difference. 0z should hopefully bring a bit more clarify with some better sampling

Since when is Winchester well south of Baltimore. It’s almost the same exact latitude as Columbia