jayyy

GFS!!!! Ice fest for this weekend and quite snowy for Tuesday with a deepening storm off the coast. Going to be a wild 3-5 days.

6z GFS at 24 hr... so close.

It’s a damn shame we won’t get hit by thi.... the radar is still LIT up.

You must have passed right by me on 70 going in the other direction!

For sure! I was shocked to see snow lighten up as I got up to mount Saint Mary’s around 930. Better snow pack, but less new snow . It seemed like MSM was JUST too far north to get in on the heavier banding... that or the area was being robbed of some lift due to subsidence because of the very heavy snow falling right to the south. Once I left the mount and went down 15 toward 70, the roads / snow got noticeably worse in Thurmont and again when I got to 70 near Frederick. The left lane of 70 was completely covered with snow near Monrovia and Frederick and I saw multiple car crashes happen. Quite the drive.

Is it just my sleepy weenie eyes, or does the moisture in WV look like it’s headed directly our way?

Precip still appears to be moving almost due west to east. I assume the boundary is forecasted to drop south at some point and force precip south with it? Just don’t see how that other precip misses us otherwise. Precip up near Charlestown and toward the MD/WV border appears to coming right at us?

Yup. Cooling aloft taking place. Cold is sinking south slowly

I was up in Emmitsburg and Thurmont earlier to get my son around 9-10pm and it was snowing pretty good for sure. I will say... rates and accumulation were notably better closer to where 15 meets 70 (Frederick) than it was at mount Saint Mary’s. Mount airy is where I saw the craziest snow. There were Numerous accidents, including a flipped over car on 70

You’re damn right there is! Look at the precip train. It appears to be oriented pretty much exactly how it’s been all evening. I would have been shocked to see short term guidance not bring round 2 further north. Sucks the SLP isn’t able to track further north though. Looks like we’ll still swing and miss despite the improvement. However, there’s been enough of a swing in guidance and OBS on the ground to cancel the watch in Charlottesville and Richmond and have it replaced by an advisory for 2” of snow and some slop. Looks like LWX isn’t very enthused about round 2.

Man! Sorry to hear that. Dover over to Chestertown MD and points N reported SN+ for a while. Looks like that E/W line was the battleground over in your neck of the woods. A bit surprised to hear 850s won out for the duration, but as you said, if heaviest precip went north, it definitely didn’t help the column overcome that slight warm nose off the water. That initial slug of precip from earlier on in the evening appeared to be key for central Maryland. Got evap cooling going early on which helped temps drop 5-7 degrees before the main batch of precip arrived.

“Round 2” precip appear to be blossoming further north to anybody?! Or is the radar playing tricks on my sleepy weenie eyes? PS - Watches dropped for VA - replaced with WWA’s. Forecast for 5+ inches of snow / Mixed precip appears to be a thing of the past. DT is going to bust SO badly.

Dang! Was hoping to hear that you cashed in over there. Seems like cold air had an easier time making it’s way into north / central Maryland than it did along the coast or in NoVA. Quite the interesting setup.

Hope that moisture in WV makes its way up here

Sounds like you may need to come join the dark side in the northern tier if you want to stop experiencing so much heartbreak in marginal setups. Marginal just doesn’t cut it in DC as of late Hope you all can cash in on round 2

I’d say a week out, p type is highly unknown. Highly doubt we get a rain storm though. Bring on the ice.

LWX’s newest warnings / advisories state we could see up to 2” more in some parts of MD from 345 on.

NCEP D6-7 QPF forecast. Wooof

Lighter gray quite clearly shows the area that got rocked under those bands these last few hours. Extreme southern Frederick Co - Northern MoCo - HoCo - AA County - Catonsville - Baltimore city crew stand up

What a great radar look for the Baltimore metro area. 31 degrees heavy snow

Downtown BAL right along the bay I guess may not hit 6”, but I’d be pretty shocked if places just outside didn’t. Idk. Radar looks real juicy still. Maybe I’m misreading it, but I don’t see the stream of heavy banding ravaging central MD shutting down any time soon.

Most in this area should verify warning totals. Looks like ellicott city into Catonsville is getting pummeled PS - that heavy precip train coming from WVA / KY is showing little sign of relenting. This reminds me of boundary setups in the summer that often give us thunderstorms and 1+“ of QPF. @Bob Chill nailed this one

Saw some great cam footage from Columbia a bit earlier. Rooting for y’all down that way.

Super curious to know how @clskinsfan is doing! Winchester has not been able to shake that sleet all night long, but martinsburg has been all snow for hours. Hope you’re cashing in man.