jayyy

6” IMBY in Union bridge 5” - my brothers house in Ellicott city 6.5” - my parents house in Rockland NY 8” - my brothers house in Rye NY 12”- my buddy in Dorchester MA Rather large area of 5-12” from VA to MA. Successful storm, no doubt.

Yep. HRRR outside of 1-2 hours is pretty useless IMHO. You can gather much more info from looking at surface obs, SPC Meso analysis, WV loop, radar, etc when it comes to determining whether or not your BY will boom or bust. Nowcasting is always the best tool in marginal / timing setups

Howard county schools closed

Widespread reports of 6-7” from my area to yours. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if you had 7-8”

Crazy part is that 2.6” likely fell in 2 hours max.

Approached 25:1 at the height of things. Was the fluffiest snow I’ve seen since leaving buffalo. Unreal, honestly.

We going to talk about the major improvements on the GFS? Been money so far this season. The fact that it did so well with a storm like this involving WAA, energy transfer to the coast, etc - is pretty dang impressive. Especially for a global suite. Did the best with Monday’s storm too. Do we have a new king in town?

Yeah man, you missed some crazy weather from 1-4am

Think the mega band that made its way from the Shen valley to Baltimore has weakened enough to where you won’t see those 2”+/hr rates, but I suspect you’ll pick up another few inches on the backend. It comes through like a bat out of hell. Ratios were over 20:1 under that band earlier.

By 00z next Wednesday, I have a feeling we’re going to be talking about a potential D5 MECS around these parts.

Have all of the beer ready

Yep! Looks like cold, broken by being on the warm side of the Sunday storm, into some days of normal temps in the 40’s before the pattern/cold reloads late next weekend as the MLK day storm forms. The 17th-30th has the potential to be an incredible period if the chips fall correctly. 00z Gfs was one of the weeniest runs I’ve ever seen. EPS mean looks tasty as well. Going to be a fun few weeks of tracking

Off to bed my friends. It’s been a pleasure. Looks like we’ll (hopefully) be back here around D10 doing it all over again

Long Island is a very tricky place to forecast. I’d argue one of the most difficult in the northeast. South shore and east end (forks) versus the north shore in Nassau county. I remember several storms where the north shore managed to stay all snow, while the Hampton got cold rain and sleet. When Long Island manages to stay all snow, they get pummeled. It is ideally placed for bands off the Atlantic from benchmark lows. You can see it with this storm. Those deep greens and yellows off the shoreline heading due north for the island. Incredible. Hell, I moved only 25 mins north of my old house here in Maryland and the difference is night and day. DC is a crazy phenomenon of its own. So, so unlucky with dry air.

Looking like 6” is going to be the final tally as things wrap up NWS Taunton / Boston upped their totals to 8-12”. No surprise there. The storm looks awfully impressive now that the coastal has taken over. Heavy snow spanning from Boston to Baltimore

That’s true. However, I was typically far enough northwest to see frozen precipitation during marginal events. Snow to ice was relatively common in those setups. 287/87 is typically the battle zone in that area. There were multiple events each winter where nyc and LI would be rain as it snowed 6+ in my neck of the woods. Elevation really takes off once you get 40+ miles away from NYC. New England usually did fair better 8/10 winters however. It’s crazy how much 10-20-30 miles means down here in Maryland / DC. Ellicott city versus DC versus Manchester in such a small geographic radius. It can be frustrating for sure, but at least it’s fun to track!

It’s too bad we didn’t have a big ole HP stationed off the coast of Maine to slow things down or anything to capture the low off the coast. This would have been absolutely epic if it were a longer duration event. Extremely satisfied, however. No complaints. Warning level snowfall verified with great rates. Been a long time since we’ve seen 2 warning level snow events within 5 days in these parts. Crazy part? The pattern looks even juicier from MLK day on.

Absolutely. Downstate New Yorker born and raised here. I’m from a town called Stony Point, NY. Lived there from childhood through college, when I went off to Buffalo (it was a snowy and cold state school and far away from my hometown) Saw some absolutely incredible nor’easters over the years living in the NW NYC suburbs. PD 1 and 2, 96, Boxing Day, the infamous Christmas storm that featured heavy rain to over a foot of snow within roughly 6 hours… the list is long. I miss the snowier winters up there, but the snow was almost a given. The chase from living down here is part of the fun!

It truly is an incredible phenomenon. 1-2 feet of snow in a given area - drive 15 mins in a given direction, and you’d find bare ground. Wild. The tools they use at NWS to pinpoint their location and intensity are amazing and vastly different than analyzing snowfall from a low pressure system. I freakin’ love reading their forecast discussions up there .

I remember there being roughly 48 hours of local media frenzy in buffalo before it hit. It wasn’t last second, but it wasn’t a ton of a notice either.

It’s still absolutely ripping out there in central MD. Band has weakened ever so slightly as it moves east and the coastal continues to crank offshore, taking the best energy with it, but man, it’s still quite impressive out there. All hail, king revamped GFS

I remember that 07 winter quite well. Insane… absolutely insane LES that year. I’ll never forget it. I went to visit my girlfriend at Oswego State and got stuck there for a week because it snowed a solid 1-2 feet everyday for 4-5 days straight. My car vanished under snow in the school lot.

I witnessed some doozies - the October storm, among others. Lake effect events there are always the best (2-3” per hour rates and 1+ foot of snow within mere hours) but we also saw a fair share of solid synoptic snowfalls during the winters of 06-11 from inland runners. Amazing winters up there. I don’t miss those bitter cold Canadian winds though.

That’s a MocoHoco death band if i’ve ever seen one

As somebody who lived in Buffalo for 5+ years, I can confirm this is the exact type of snow / accumulation seen with Lake Effect. 2” per hour of the fluffiest snow you’ll ever see stemming from a near picture perfect atmosphere for dendrite growth. Pretty rare we see these types of flakes down here. Amazing.