jayyy

500mb is south. As is h5.

It’s coming my friend

Give me the 0z ICONs 500mb setup with a SW somewhere along the coast and I’ll happily roll the dice in my neck of the woods

Yep. Let’s get the trend started tonight with 0z with a slow but steady trend E over the next few days. Still plenty of ensemble members with great tracks and even some misses to the SE. Plenty of time for a consensus track in the middle to arise

Would really like to see a clear trend east begin by 12z tomorrow or 0z

Euro has similar temps. Don’t think it’s off base here. That southern Alabama low is intriguing

Whoever is JUST west of the mix / snow line come storm day is going to be quite happy. This has great banding written all over it and the moisture feed is going to be profound upstairs. Some models printing 1-2” qpf. Just a matter of where that fall line sets up I’d honestly take a nice 4-6” thump before a dry slot or sleet bomb in a heart beat, but I’m certainly rooting for more.

All we can really ask for 5 days out. I know many love to see those pretty pink colors on snow maps over our backyards - even on 5+ day out model runs - but I’d actually be more concerned if models were showing an area wide jack at this point because we know things will very likely shift between now and storm time.

Agreed. Anybody also thinking it has more of a Miller A look to it up top than what we’ve been seeing? Interested to see how that evolves over subsequent runs

Especially 50-60-100 mile adjustments. We’re talking about numerous features at play, in which a small difference in strength / location of one or multiple of those features could make the difference between a 3-6” type storm and a 6-12” type storm - especially for the 95 corridor. We’ve seen this song and dance before. No guarantee of course this plays out exactly how we want, but I’d bet pretty solid money that the end result is different than what’s being depicted right now. 3-6” thump before a changeover in the major cities with 6+ NW and 6+ for all are both still very much on the table.

So far this winter, it’s been pretty solid in the short, medium, and long range. Not many models you can say that about, if any. Still early on in its existence of course, but the results have been impressive to date. It sniffed out the last 2 storms as well.

Bingo. Said this earlier in the other thread. It’s far too early - especially with so many pieces at play and such a dynamic setup - to be worrying about a particular runs surface look on day 6; worrying about p-type and clown maps is ill advised. Ensembles, h5, 500mb - my day 6 starter pack for model watching For me… what I took out of today is that a clear trend has been set for a significant coastal storm, instead of a far southern slider. Now we let the storm get into the euro and king (new) gfs’s wheelhouse and iron out things like spacing / location of features, storm track, strength of storm, over the next 2 or so days before we get too excited / worried. When have we ever wanted to be in the jackpot day 5/6 anyhow!? Thank you for your calming words and of course, all of the knowledge you share here. You, PSU, Bob Chill, and several others here are invaluable to this forum.

Yep

Us? Invested in a potential D6 MECS? never.

Plus, the SE forum jinxed themselves long before we did. They’ve had a thread up for days. This sucker is ours.

Just a wee bit

Unless it’s Paul Kocin

Far too many pieces at play here to be TOO concerned about exact track and P-type 6 days out. It looks like the trend has started to get a monster nor’easter up the coastline. Let’s wait until at least Thursday before we begin to worry too much about minute details. I have a good feeling about this one.

We went from a suppressed Georgia and Carolina’s snowstorm to worrying about the strong SE flow wrecking the mid levels within 12 hours. Oh. Weather. You never disappoint.

I wouldn’t worry about temps too much here. Plenty of cold air around

*runs to look*

lmao! Fair enough.

I apologize for my sins.

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb

6.5” - union bridge 12” - Ellicott city