jayyy

If this storm somehow defies every single model and goes east, this will be dubbed the WinterWxLuvr storm no doubt 18/1 — 1029 mbar — Union bridge WSW up for 2-4” before ice. Right along the lines of what I’m expecting but hoping for more

It’s alright guys, at 18z DT will release a new snow map, claiming the models will pick up on the effects of the volcanic eruption flaring tsunami advisories along the west coast, shifting our storm hundreds of miles east downstream. Stay focused. **sarcasm**

Imagine it comes in 150-200 miles SE of last run and we get rocked. #PlotTwist

Come oooon 00z, don’t do us dirty

NAVGAP still offshore?

I know NAM gets trashed, which is usually pretty spot on when we’re talking about 60-84 hours, but if the 12k and 3K are showing a major ice storm at the 24-48 hour mark, we need to be paying attention, as the NAM is better at picking up mid level warming in these setups than the GFS.

Just as we have suspected for days now - many in the subwill need to rely on the WAA thump for snow outside of far NW zones. 1-3/2-4” before the changeover is a reasonable forecast for dc and Baltimore with higher amounts as you head WNW of the 95 corridor. The euro is indeed trending the way we need it to as PSU pointed out, but it’s trending too slowly. Going to need to see the trend continue in Ernest at 12z and beyond or else we simply don’t have enough time to get to where we need to be by the time Sunday rolls around

Knew when I woke up and there were only 4 more pages of content that 00z and 6z weren’t that great. Still 48 hours away. Let’s see if we’ve got any last minute magic in us

Hate how on the cusp my area is for this one. 4-8” before a flip seems like a solid consensus

That comes in a week or two when the pattern has settled in

Warm nose has spoken about the warm nose. It’s a lock.

Let’s get that good 00z juju going up in here. #JebRuns

Yeah, I’ll take 70-90% and run

Believe so. 18z Gfs gives them that 5”

Very true. One thing is for sure, ill be up through the 00z euro run tonight as we enter it’s wheelhouse. Feeling very good about our chances of a warning event

THERE HE IS! Dude. We need your persistent optimism. Worked wonders last week.

Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry.

Not sure if this is still the case versus how it used to work, but we should have a bunch of new data to work with at 00z. CRUCIAL series of runs. If 00z Gfs and company come in snowier than 18z, we’re still very much in business being 60+ hours out. But we really do need that trend to start and be pronounced tonight. Wouldn’t be the first or last time we scored a coup within 48-72 hours. Might be wishful thinking - especially for the 95 crew, but I do think there are many locations in NoVA and C MD that are still very much in the game. Time is running thin though. As far as my general area over to highway 15 and out to Winchester and points W, we are still very much in the game for a significant snowfall.

Duuuuude, we get pummeled

The NAM is undervalued at 84 hr with numerous upper air features and phasing at play? How, exactly?

Very little change besides that. Not sure how much that will matter when the issue is how early we’re phasing

Those highs wont save us. If that massive storm is still spinning out in the Atlantic, there’s no room for our storm to track off the coast.

Yup. Thank you.

If it gets captured early as depicted on models, sadly. We’ve seen many storms like this over the years where the evolution in the south / southeast is nearly perfect, but the trough axis isn’t or we have energy capturing our low and pulling it NW. It’s going to be tough to see a low near the Carolina coastline with snow breaking out as far south as SC, just to see it get yanked NW and the mid levels get destroyed by an easterly fetch. Really hope models aren’t handling the NS correctly, but it’s hard to bank on that when every single OP run has a similar outcome. Hopefully more data by 00z tonight will help start a new and clear trend SE

That L is literally 5-10 mins southwest of my house