jayyy

And at that point we’re using the HRRR / RAP and Nowcasting anyway

Exactly. It’s not like we’re seeing the Euro GFS GEFS Ukie NAM and company with near identical 500mb/h5 setups and just slight differences in end result from something like the trough axis. There are still HUGE differences in the evolution of the pattern / storm leading into this event on almost every model. We are going to need to wait until the proverbial players on the field before we start seeing models come around to a consensus. It is completely normal for that to happen within 72-84 hours of an event. Those claiming they are certain that things will happen one way or the other are making predictions based on gut feelings / hopium - nothing more.

You’re not dreaming. Still well within range to see enough of shift north to see advisory / low end warning snowfall in the metro corridor and points ESE. Some models already showing it, although it would be nice to see an appreciable trend begin at 18z or 0z tonight Writing the storm off this early when models are still all over the place with the 500mb setup is silly Give me a bob chill 3-6 type event with temps in the upper teens and 20s and I’m happy as can be. This is just after the mid point in January in the mid Atlantic and we’re talking about events #4 and 5 hitting by the end of this week. People Complaining about that is ridiculous, I’m sorry The need for some to see a MECS or HECS potential with every coastal is honestly pretty annoying.

PM me the strains you “partake” with. I need me some of those.

Womp

GFS, GEFS, Ukie all move toward Euro and not the other way around. The misses are to the south. Can’t say I hate where we’re sitting right now. If we want one model to show a hit at day 5, it’s the Euro OP

We’re seriously discounting this storm because the GFS doesn’t have it 5-6 days out? Icon RGEM and cmc are all more similar to the Euro than the GFS at 500 & H5. Also, the GFS’s 5 day verification score hasn’t actually been that good as of late. The storm we scored 2 Monday’s ago was a nothing burger until about 48-60 hours out. Anything is still possible. Buffalo wasn’t seeing 1-2 feet of snow from yesterdays system until about 72 hours out. I get that we have different climo, but the point remains the same regarding track and evolution of systems. This can’t be as black and white as “one model has this nailed down perfectly and the other is completely wrong” this far out. Both could very well be incorrect and the solution lies somewhere in the middle or… something entirely different plays out altogether. We need yesterdays system out of the picture and the prospective players on the field before we can start discounting models entirely. Hoping one is right because it shows snow or saying the GFS is right because it’s done OK lately is not a legit way to go about It. We all know It is going to take near perfect timing for this to pan out, but discounting it entirely this far out is just silly.

Ehh.. euro gives us 4-8” or so. Not exactly locked in given the spread between models and the differences in 500mb evolution

My buddy outside of buffalo said they have snowflakes the size of golf balls falling right now with 3-4” per hour rates. Nearly 10” fell within just a few hours. Will easily surpass 20” up that way. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 24+“ report between buffalo and Niagara Falls by the afternoon

What a storm! Warning level snow to very heavy sleet and then heavy ZR. LOVE it.

Man… that line moved like a bat out of hell over the past hour

Nah. Lol. Mix line is barely to your SE. you’ll be sleet in under 30 min

Yessir! We’re still hangin’ on for now. 8 pm is my guess for our latitude for a changeover. Been a great last 3 hours though

Temp gradient is insane on each side of the BR

Will have to check that out!

Not too shabby! Where are you at versus climo?

Still seeing heavy snow up this way but if you’re mixing in Urbana, I expect pingers by 8 pm by me

My brother said it’s about 50-50 snow/sleet in OEC. Sleet in Columbia. Pingers imminent for sure. 70 acts as a bit of a barrier with increased elevation north of it, but Expecting snow until about 8 here before we flip as well.

That’s how forecasting typically goes for our CWA my friend. They upgrade / downgrade totals mid storm during almost every storm. Makes sense given how on the cusp we typically are. I do agree though - where they cut off the eastern London line is a bit silly

When it begins pounding with giant flakes, the mix line isn’t far behind sadly. Same thing occurred further south. I expect another hour of snow up your way

Incorrect. 2-4” with up to 6” lollies which is spot on

I mean.. your advisory is for 2-4” and then mixed precip. Looks like it verified unless you flip back to snow.

Couple miles off then. Mix line is pretty close to leesburg on that radar - and it was snapped about 10 min ago

This Radar looks spot on as far as the mix line is concerned. Rapidly moving north but also getting stonewalled east of the BR

#HoldingStrong