jayyy

35.5F with rain Come on temps, fall faster.

Changeover happening as we speak in higher elevations up highway 15 near Thurmont and smithsburg, as well as in NoVA. Rain/snow line appears to be right along I-81 currently. Heavy precip along the front and streaming in from the SW as this unfolds. All comes to how much QPF remains once we flip over. If there’s another 0.25” of liquid left in the tank, we still have a shot at 2”. Can definitely see how the GFS (with its known biases) was seeing 3-4” in the metro corridor yesterday. Should still see a decent amount of QPF as precip is coming in like a wall, but the GFS is likely going to be slightly off when it comes to changeover time, which makes all the difference in a marginal event. When we fall short in these setups, this is almost always exactly why. Models bring in cold air just too soon and overestimate remaining precip once the flip occurs. We should know by 7-8a whether or not this will dud. NWS sticking with their guns (renewed the WWA @ 3:40 AM — 2” with 3-4” lollies from 6a-1pm) Let’s see if they’re right.

The pattern is done? What? Why? Don’t worry so much about vanishing fantasy storms in the 168-384 hr range on individual OP runs. Use the OPs loosely to get an idea of the overall potential ahead (will we have a source of cold air? are models sniffing out a ridge out west? Any potential storms forming? NS / SS interaction? Etc) Worrying about smaller details such as storm track, rain v. snow is pretty much irrelevant this far out. Next run could very well show 3 crippling snowstorms, which we should also take with a grain of salt. We look to the long range for an overall framework of the pattern ahead, use the medium range to begin sniffing out individual threats, and the short range brings us details / clarity on those specific threats.

Have a good friend from my college days who lives out in Lexington KY reporting heavy snow - big flakes with 1” per hour rates. Said temps crashed like a rock once the main batch of precip arrived and it’s sticking with ease. Heavy snow in WV and KY with a moisture train trailing back to the TX / LA border with strong thunderstorms popping up on the tail end. Not sure how much of that precip is supposed to make it up this way, but if we can drop to freezing by 6-7am, we should be money for 2-3” of paste. Just had a heavy rain shower come through. Temps falling slowly. 38*F

So. Close. But so far.

Latest HRRR shows more snow in NJ and into NYC / LI than our area GFS may be turning us over too quickly - almost all other models are less snowy this AM. Radar is definitely juicy to the west and temps are down to 37 here, so let’s see how this all unfolds.

Sure.

What about this radar screams “dud” to you?

WWA verbiage upgraded to say isolated 3-4” lollies. Let the games begin

Elaborate!

Def not a Winchester area jack type event. Best lift well SE and temps aren’t enough to “even” things out. Definitely thinking about going down to Howard county tonight to stay at my broski’s house to catch the fun

Yessir! I’m supposed to work tomorrow in Columbia - thinking about staying down at my brothers tonight in Ellicott city. HoCo may be in a prime spot in terms of Temps / precip

Haven’t seen it but within 24 hours? I don’t really care to look at it

GFS, NAMs, HRRR and RAP all show 2-4” with 5” lollies for the corridor. Hard to ignore the trend.

I mean… it nailed the last storm 24 hours out

GFS / NAM blend for MBY is around 3”. I’ll take that in a heartbeat

I think Columbia will end up in the 2-3” range. So perhaps a tie

Gotta love how the “stat padder” now looks like its may end up producing more snow than the last storm for the 95 crew lol. Gotta love weather

We get SO close (on a few different occasions) to seeing a big snowstorm in our area….. details to be ironed out later of course…. but man, if we can manage a few 3-6/4-8” type events over the next 2-3 weeks, that certainly wouldn’t be a fail either. We’d see the major terminals over climo and many of us would be well above where we should be by end of January. Of course, getting a big KU would satisfy the weenie craving during such a tasty pattern, but you won’t find me complaining if we manage to pile up between 1-2 feet of snow over the next few weeks with multiple advisory / low end warning snowfalls one after the other. Especially with the advertised cold, as snowpack would largely remain in tact throughout the period. Lots of fun tracking ahead of us! Can’t wait to do it with you knuckleheads.

Let’s goooooo! 4”? Yes please.

72 hours out with a storm SE of us and a ton of cold air. We’ve certainly been in worse positions before a storm. 00z trended better at h5/500mb. Not counting out the metro corridor and points SE until at least 0z tomorrow or 12z thurs

I don’t see a worsening trend here whatsoever. If anything, things look better at 500mb than previous runs. Plenty of room for this to change - the issue is, there’s also plenty of room for this to track further SE as well. Too much time left to assume an outcome in either direction with the looming large differences at h5/500 The window is closing for places in far W and NW portions of the CWA, but 95 and east? Still PLENTY of time.

It’s fine guys - we created a thread - so now the NW trend, by weenie law, must commence at 0z tonight

It’s definitely dead for them. We are close enough to the event where I’d say the DC - Baltimore and MAYBE Philly metro are still very much in the game for appreciable snow - but almost zero shot NYC or Boston sees anything significant from this. Nothing to capture the storm or drive it north up the coast.

The hi res NAM - which is supposed to be good at deciphering setups like we saw with the last storm / had places NW of Winchester seeing 2-3” the day before the storm. That model is completely out to lunch. They should just revert back for the ETA and call it a day