jayyy

Well… that’s an odd way to phrase it

Plenty of time left to see a 20-30 mile shift west as well

If we can manage a 2-4” region wide snowfall with 6” lollies, that’s a win in my book for sure. advisory for 2-4 with 6” lollies for Carroll and points west advisory for 2-4 with 5” lollies for central MD

Bingo. The smallest change in evolution and shortwave interaction has a major impact on the result in these setups. Let’s see what the Ukie Canadian and other models have to say. Euro was definitely meh but hey, at least it snows. Interested to see if meso models pick up on any sort of trend as we get within 48 hours

If this winter is going to continue to be dominated by a progressive flow without much ridging and southern sliders, we may need to start getting used to this feeling - at least for this season. These types of winters are bound to happen by sheer odds. Climo and our latitude helps us 95% of the time…. unless the primary storm track for the winter season is a suppressed one. Then it’s fairly useless. I remember a couple of winters when I still lived up in New York where coastal NJ, NYC, LI and coastal New England kept seeing 6-8-12+ snowfalls and my location (roughly 50 miles NW of NYC - a location that averages FEET more than NYC / LI / NJ each winter with a ton more elevation ) kept getting fringed. There was a storm that winter where places on Long Island saw nearly 2 feet of snow and we got 3” max in northern Rockland county. The very next storm had a similar outcome, just with lower totals. The “southern slider” winter as we called it on the old Tristateweather forum. I believe it was also a niña winter. Storm after storm kept moving quickly and sliding underneath and off the MD / DE / southern jersey coast and tracking just close enough to hit the coast with big snows, but no dice for us inland as the ULL never got captured and we weren’t seeing much in the way of digging in the trough axis. It was flat, snowless, and frustrating as all hell. We kept saying “it’ll be our turn next time” and we waited nearly a year for our next big snowfall. Not saying that’s guaranteed to happen to us this winter by any means…. But it does appear like we’re in for a more frustrating winter than average and that I-95 may finally be rewarded after several consecutive dud winters. I am definitely rooting for a region-wide warning level snow from the coast to the mountains, but those seem hard to come by nowadays. I will also gladly take a region-wide 3-6” type storm as well

It “isn’t a warning level snowfall” is typically the issue for the usual suspects. Not sure why that’s become the bar for so many. A nice 4-6” event far inland with 2-4” closer to 95 is still a nice snowfall we should very much be welcoming - especially in a setup that typically goes wrong for our area

Exactly. Let us see that 12z gfs.

12k nam brings a nice 6-8” snowfall into western areas though

That’s cause it knows it’s gonna spit out some longer range NAM nonsense

Yep. Within 60 hours now. Time to pay attention to detail

Absolutely. These storms that involve good timing and phasing aren’t typically our specialty around these parts, but anything’s possible! We have time on our side here, seeing as the storm is only roughly 60 hours out and we have some decent agreement on the models. Still plenty of time for things to change but not much.

12z should be out shortly. Shellacking incoming?

Thursday Night Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Now, let us get that 6Z GFS RGEM depiction and we’re cash money!

Think that’s his point.

NEMD and points NE type storm

This storm has increase totals as we get closer to the event written all over it. Have a feeling we’ll be looking at a warning event by the time 00z Thursday rolls around.

Congrats!!

The cutoff seemed to slice Howard county in two. Roughly 3” in central and west-central HoCo with 1” in the extreme western and northern portions and a solid 4-6” in eastern hoco

6” - extreme southeastern OEC at my brothers place - officially in the books. It looks absolutely incredible out there. Maybe 0.5” in my backyard in union bridge Congrats to the rt 50 and surrounding area crew on cashing in big (8-14” reports) GREAT way to kick off winter. Let’s do it all again early Friday, shall we?

I’m still in awe at the sharp cutoff along 29 and 40 Local reports indicating nearly double the snowfall fell in OEC / Oella / Catonsville and East Columbia than west EC / Columbia / Clarksville / Woodstock

The western flank is now moving east fairly rapidly again. Expecting CAPE to be able to hold on to heavy snow for another few hours at least and surpass 12”

A solid 4-8” snowfall (lollipops above 10”) for many around the 95 metros with temps under freezing in early January. A day after being 60 degrees. Cannot complain. Over a foot in some places in just over 6 hours! Incredible. Yes, many in the northern crew received 1” or less (my oldest brother lives in Urbana near Frederick and has seen nothing more than a dusting - pretty sure my house in union bridge saw less than an inch as well) We didn’t ALL cash in, but I know the northern crew is happy for the 95ers and know their time will come down the road. My middle brother (who’s house I’m at in OEC) hasn’t seen snow like this in a few years and is happier than a pig in sh*t jebwalking through the neighborhood. Happy for all you lowland snow weenies! Really nice way to kick off the season and we’ve got another threat to track after this storm departs. Little more iffy of a situation, but the potential is there for some significant wintry precip if things fall into place

12:30 pm future radar. Looks like one last hoorah band for Rockville to Columbia and points east before we wrap up. GREAT storm so far. Gotta love it.

What a storm. Good news: we have another threat coming in a few days

Yes please!!