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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    Didnt you say it was over last night?
  2. jayyy
    We were never out of it. As @MillvilleWx explained so well, most snowstorms in our area don’t get sniffed out outside 4 days. We are never out of the game until the fat lady sings. 6 days out isn’t that time.
  3. jayyy
    Much rather be missing wide right and cold / dry, than be in the bullseye 6 days out. Every, single, time.
  4. jayyy
    Wonder what models Dark Sky utilizes for their forecasts. Has 1-3 for next Saturday and 5-9 on Sunday. Ballsy
  5. jayyy
    It’s awesome that you got a nice storm last night. We hope you enjoyed it man. But you’re only proving his point by being so hyped about it. A 7” storm is a walk in the park in the upper Shenandoah valley and the fact that you are so amped up over it only proves that it is indeed a rarity for your area. The last time your area got 5+ inches was 2018, before last night. Meanwhile, Clskinsfan probably saw more snow January 2016 than you saw in the entire last decade combined…. to give you some much needed perspective. Let’s stick to talking about upcoming threats, shall we?
  6. jayyy
    “We need it to show a big storm by tomorrow or we’re in deep sh**” What? It’s almost a week away. That’s nonsense.
  7. jayyy
    It’s a more progressive pattern. Instead of large ridges out west and troughs out east, you see the boundary / northern jet push south and storms track along it underneath us, keeping us on the cold side of storms. Overrunning events pan out best in these types of patterns. It’s never fun to be south of that boundary. You tend to see the northern tier of the country cold from coast to coast, with warmer air in the south instead of seeing the west warm as the east is cold. It’s not a great pattern, but they can still pan out nicely when things line up just right.
  8. jayyy
    Ask psu what winter was better. Ask Winchester people I saw over 40” of snow last year, as did a lot of the corridor between Manchester, Thurmont, and Winchester. However, more of the forum is at climo this year than last year. Depends on who you ask, of course. We saw a much more active January this winter than last. So far, it’s been a more exciting winter than last for the area. PSU has simply been unlucky so far. I have little doubt that PSU will still see more snow than dc or Baltimore this winter and will likely surpass climo by winters end. Once February and march roll around, that’s when it’s our latitudes turn to shine.
  9. jayyy
    Cold and wet - good combo.
  10. jayyy
    We get heavy snow, Boston gets rain as the low drives through New England. Upstate NY gets rocked on the backside of a 973mb slp
  11. jayyy
  12. jayyy
    Mmmmhmm
  13. jayyy
    Doesn’t get much better than this
  14. jayyy
    Right on queue.
  15. jayyy
    00z GFS was wide right but still wasn’t too far away from hitting us with some snow on the 30th. NYC / LI into SNE get ROCKED with 6-12 hours of very heavy snow . All I really take away from these runs this far out (198 hours) is the possibility of a gulf low making the turn up the coast and bombing out (gets to sub 980) Details, such as needing a track 150 miles further west, aren’t all that important yet. The 6z run coming up could easily show a foot for us with relatively minute changes upstairs. For me… overall trends and keeping the potential alive for seeing a gulf low bomb out somewhere along the coast is more important than exact details until we get inside 120 (D5) when models will have far more data to work with.
  16. jayyy
    My reply was for Ji. Not sure why it tagged your reply.
  17. jayyy
    This is why you dont want the op to show a huge storm 8 days out. No where to go but down....down deep into the black pit of digital snow loss An op run showing a big snowstorm 8 days out is irrelevant as to whether or not it happens. You’re talking as if these are curses - like opening a storm thread. We’ve seen plenty of storms over the years get modeled 8-10 days out and come to fruition. Exactly as depicted? Of course not. We’ve seen storms get sniffed out early, lost, only to come back again. We have seen storms get sniffed out early and remain on models throughout. Pretty sure one of those dropped like 3 feet of snow in your house in Jan of 2016? We’ve also seen storms materialize in under 48 hours before. You can’t live and die by each run. You know that. Big differences between 12z to 0z when you’re 7+ days away is absolutely meaningless.
  18. jayyy
    Welp… one thing is for sure…. Well have plenty of tracking to do over the next 2-3 weeks. I have little doubt we see a 6”+ type storm between now and feb 7th
  19. jayyy
    I’ll take 6-12+ with some sleet at the height as the storm passes underneath before we get deathbanded. In a hot damn heartbeat.
  20. jayyy
    Wow at the GFS / GGEM. Of course, all we should be taking away from this is the overall potential for a bomb off the east coast in the 7-10 day timeframe, but DAAAAYUM, nonetheless. 30” in Augusta Also appears we should not be writing off a potential for a quick 1-2” type clipper for Sunday PM or the Tuesday threat either at this juncture. Spacing looks better for Tuesday. A few more days with improvements at 500 and we are certainly in the game.
  21. jayyy
    I can never tell if you’re being serious. Why are you so concerned about verbatim surface maps and timing of phases in the long range? You know things will change 500x between now and then.
  22. jayyy
    It’s also not in New England if I’m not mistaken. It’s in the “northeast”
  23. jayyy
    HRW and HRW-2 both inching closer as well as far as precip totals are concerned. Let’s see what the varsity models have to say.
  24. jayyy
    SREF gets close, but no cigar. A few more ticks NW though and who knows? Gets the 2-3” line awfully close to CAPEtown Let’s see how 18z unfolds
  25. jayyy
    I mean…. We’ve got what? 4 or so major suites (18z, 0z, 6z, 12z, and so on) left between now and storm time? I’m definitely not discounting I-95 east from seeing some snow if this bad boy keeps trending NW and better at 500. Cape may end up with 2-4”+ by the time this sucker hits at this rate
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