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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    If this isn’t going to improve at all, i’d take the 2-3” the Gfs shows with a nyc and PHL miss and call it a day.
  2. jayyy
    The same 18z euro that gave us an inch of snow? They weren’t insinuating it was a big hit coming. Just stating facts.
  3. jayyy
    Yep. We have to rely entirely on hoping for an amped up / perfectly placed ridge out west, enough digging of the SW, the trough to go negative enough and at the right time, and a perfectly placed coastal low when it pops. Blocking allows us to not need a royal flush at h5 / 500mb to see a nice snowstorm from a coastal low. Without it, it’s easy for storms to fall apart for our area. Hard to get a perfect upper air setup when there’s so many different variables to consider.
  4. jayyy
    Ji is MECS/HECS or bust. We all know this.
  5. jayyy
    Hopefully it’s just 18z nonsense and we see something more tangible with more data at 0z. fugly run, indeed. This thing probably misses SNE too on the 18z Gfs
  6. jayyy
    Like the buffalo bills in the early 90s…. Wide right.
  7. jayyy
    Looks like the GFS is catching up a bit at h5. Initialization looks more accurate than 12z
  8. jayyy
    Give that good JiJi (juju)
  9. jayyy
    Won’t take much to get some decent totals back west of the bay. Just a few more days of this trend and we’re in ok shape
  10. jayyy
    To me, a 6+ Snowfall hasn’t been ruled out for the Baltimore metro - moreso than DC being that it’s further NE and better positioned in this setup. 12+ definitely ain’t happening though.
  11. jayyy
    Slow and steady trend west. Exactly what we want to see at this juncture
  12. jayyy
    I think it’s more of a hybrid than a pure miller B, but I may be wrong. ————— Models appear to not be amped enough with the ridge out west at initialization, which is no doubt helping push the storm too Far East downstream. Still plenty of time for the W trend to continue and to see an advisory to low level warning event (of cold smoke) for I-95 and points east. (Upslope out west will provide more snow than the coastal) Side note: The moment some folks stop obsessing over our area needing to jackpot or outsnow the PHL - NYC - BOS corridor, the sooner they’ll come to peace with what we do end up getting. Get this insane notion out of your heads that we will outsnow NYC / LI to Boston with a hybrid Miller b setup. It ain’t happening. Also, not every snowfall needs to be a MECS/HECS. Folks are living in the wrong area if they expect those type of results.
  13. jayyy
    You gotta love to see it. Few more ticks west and it’d be game on. Overall trend is clear as day tonight.
  14. jayyy
    If we fail, we likely fail either far out to sea or the typical Miller b screw job with too late of a bomb out and nyc to Boston gets smacked. Far too progressive of a flow to see an apps cutter
  15. jayyy
    Gives us some room for a consensus hit down the middle over the next several days. Not mad about it.
  16. jayyy
    Certainly a nice trend tonight
  17. jayyy
  18. jayyy
  19. jayyy
    If you lived on the tughill, then your expectations would be reasonable. You live in the wrong area if you expect big snow simply bc it’s cold.
  20. jayyy
    Here, fishy fishy
  21. jayyy
    On my way to black flag brewing for happy hour. Trying to drink this storm back into existence
  22. jayyy
    Anyone have the icon? I’m mobile
  23. jayyy
    Long Island FTW
  24. jayyy
    No i said see you at 6z and we are quickly running out of time No, we aren’t. Models didn’t pick up January 3rd until New Year’s Eve. Stop man.
  25. jayyy
    Stop saying its 6 days out. The storm is fully mature at 6 days. Look at 3 days out What are you talking about? The storm is 6 days out. 29th. There is a ton of evolution that takes place between the 26th and 29th. Stop talking nonsense.
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