jayyy

Trend has been our friend today. Let’s see it continue at 18z and beyond. Tired of this 2 steps forward, one step back nonsense.

Waiting for “RSC” to come in with another “the low tracking further west won’t help” comment after these runs. Sure as sh** helped.

Unless this showed 30” in your backyard - then you wouldn’t stop talking about it and you’d be back to pretending like you see more snow than Winchester.

I’d argue that majority of people in here care

@cape would probably sell their left nut for this outcome lol

January 3rd was pretty much a nothing burger until New Year’s Eve into New Year’s Day. Im not sure if better sampling caused the necessary changes we needed to see a sizable shift in the outcome leading in, but we don’t really need “wholesale” changes for this to be a respectable event for many is my point. A sizable shift in outcome (snow totals) doesn’t always equate to major changes at h5 / 500mb. Getting those 6-10” totals from the eastern shore to Baltimore wouldn't really require massive changes. A bit better ridging, a sharper trough, more digging, a slightly earlier phase, etc goes a long way when you’re talking 100-150 miles No one’s expecting a KU or MECS here. I’m talking about a low end warning event for 95 east.

True. However, if we were bullseyed 4+ days out, we’d all be worried about the inevitable shift west. We’ve certainly been in worse positions 4 days out.

Was just going to say this. Why do Mets frequently mention this in forecast discussions then? Including a recent one. Unless they’re all mistaken on the models they read for a living.

Complex or not, where this low forms and tracks offshore absolutely matters.

Big time. 00z tonight will be our first full data suite with the wave on land for sampling. Big runs coming up in the coming 24 hours

4 days left - let us get a measly 25 mile shift west each run and we’re golden

00z euro tonight will have heavy snow in the metro corridor. I can feel it

Euro totals. CAPE gets a foot. 8” line back to Baltimore. NYC to Boston get slammed. 28” jack in east NJ I’m off all weekend — debating going to visit my parents just outside NYC if models converge on this solution.

Not bad, but not as good as the EPS

Trending the right way, no doubt. Let’s keep it going!

The 0z euro came closer than I originally thought. The storm absolutely blows up on its journey from the Carolina’s to east of Long Island. 1008 to 968 in 12 hours. A bit too east and late, but it was close. More than enough time left to see the changes necessary to bring us some appreciable snow out of this. 00z tonight is when I really want to see models begin to hone in on what’s going on out west. By that time, the energy diving south from Western Canada should have far better sampling for models. So long as we are trending better in that regard, our hopes remain alive.

Definitely see what you’re talking about. Subtle, but noticeable.

100%. The need for some to see a SECS MECS or HECS in the MA region every storm is frustrating to say the least. 2-4” out of a storm that was tracking to Bermuda a few days back is a win in my book. If we can get more, even better, but I’d be happy with a solid advisory event. IF current trends continue over the next few days, I could see a 2-4” in the metros with 3-6” out your way type deal unfolding.

I know 00z was a step back after we trended in the right direction most of the day yesterday, but overall, the trend is still our friend and it’s becoming clear this thing will likely trend west, not east, as we get closer.

Historically, the Gfs does tend to be too progressive / flat and underestimate ridging, resulting in a SE bias, but that may no longer be the case since it was upgraded

You are still very much in the game for sure. Id say anyone from 95 east still is, but especially areas east of the bay. I’d like to see models further west right now of course, but we’ve certainly been in worse positions at D4

Perfectly put. I like this sentence here “However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.”

Despite the low spawn out by the Bahamas, we still almost get brushed and SNE gets hit hard (E LI to Boston and downeast Maine) If the low spans along the gulf coast instead, we are very much in the game

Models really have no clue how to handle the energy in the SW. Still so many different looks at h5 across the board. We won’t have a consensus for Saturday’s storm until models get a better handle on what’s going on out west (how much energy is left behind, if any, and the amplitude / positioning of the ridge) Until that occurs, I'm not all in on a given solution at this juncture. 6z rgem vs NAM vs ICON is the perfect example. One leaves most of the energy behind, while another kicks it all the way out, resulting in vastly different outcomes.

It’s almost euro wheelhouse time (whatever that’s worth anymore) let’s see how 0z looks.