jayyy

They won’t because they shouldn’t.

The NWS forecast has called for rain / snow mix prior to going all snow in the afternoon for days now in the lowlands because that’s exactly what most models showed going in. Nothing has really changed at this juncture except maybe for 50/66 south. The fact that it’s 10am and many places to the west are changing over or all snow is a good sign. Radar looks exactly like we’d expect - maybe a tad ahead of schedule with precip blossoming. Not sure why there’s so much freaking out going on. Anyway… 33F mod snow, fatty flakes as the transition occurs

You took the words right out of my mouth. I feel like when we’re under a WSW, we either bust low or barely hit the lower range. When they go conservative, we get a pleasant surprise. Maybe those occurrences are just the ones that stick out in my mind [emoji23] but I’m still going with it!!

3-6” is a reasonable forecast I’d say

Obviously still anyone’s guess where these bands ultimately setup and our area’s climo comes into play.. but it’s certainly interesting to see 3-4 models tonight with a similar output (having the max near 95) Wonder if they’re onto something.

Certainly odd that you’re 5 degrees warmer than lowland Howard county. Weather is weird

A lot of factors go into localized temps. It’s currently colder in Ellicott city (31) than the NYC suburbs (36) Weird for sure but nonetheless…

Euro and RGEM with the 95 band via the coastal. Gfs about 15-20 miles further west with the goods but still gives 95 corridor borderline warning snowfall *May*have to raise that 2-4” forecast for areas just west of 95 if this keeps up

Indeed. However still 5+ along 95

I’m too lazy to look. Lay it on us Randy

Already down to freezing in the Ellicott city area per obs. Thinking you’re right. And if the euro / rgem has the right idea of a near 95 qpf max, places like Columbia, EC, owings mills could see 5”

lol where are you located sourpuss

Dc Baltimore jack during a marginal event. What could go wrong [emoji28]

Thermals?

Temp drop continues. 34 and cloudy

36 and mostly cloudy

Looks like a batch of mixed (or snow depending on location) is moving NE through the area. Suspect it’ll mainly be snow from Columbia N

Man, that model has truly been rock solid for DAYS. .45-.55 area wide with the maxima from my hood to Mt PSU

Beat me to it. Let’s goooo NAM gfs euro combo say nearby suburbs west of 95 should also probably have one

Wondering if we see watches expanded in the AM for the rest of MoCo/ HoCo / Baltimore

Georgetown.. cause it’ll be raining

Came here to say this. Their January forecast was for above normal temps in late December lol

11” up by my parents house in Orange County, NY. wowza I’d certainly take 5-8” down this way. Probably best we cut these totals in half for now though unless other models come around to loftier totals.

Yay for winter storm watches!

Sounds like we should just take the compromise and call it a flush hit [emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]