jayyy

Unless it’s Paul Kocin

Far too many pieces at play here to be TOO concerned about exact track and P-type 6 days out. It looks like the trend has started to get a monster nor’easter up the coastline. Let’s wait until at least Thursday before we begin to worry too much about minute details. I have a good feeling about this one.

We went from a suppressed Georgia and Carolina’s snowstorm to worrying about the strong SE flow wrecking the mid levels within 12 hours. Oh. Weather. You never disappoint.

I wouldn’t worry about temps too much here. Plenty of cold air around

*runs to look*

lmao! Fair enough.

I apologize for my sins.

So many reference the “bust of the century” Boxing Day storm and I was wondering why I couldn’t remember such an epic fail occur. But then I looked up the date and realized why I was associating Boxing Day with an epic storm in my noggin. I lived in SENY at the time - circled in white. 23” was our storm total. Makes way more sense now. I feel dumb

6.5” - union bridge 12” - Ellicott city

6” IMBY in Union bridge 5” - my brothers house in Ellicott city 6.5” - my parents house in Rockland NY 8” - my brothers house in Rye NY 12”- my buddy in Dorchester MA Rather large area of 5-12” from VA to MA. Successful storm, no doubt.

Yep. HRRR outside of 1-2 hours is pretty useless IMHO. You can gather much more info from looking at surface obs, SPC Meso analysis, WV loop, radar, etc when it comes to determining whether or not your BY will boom or bust. Nowcasting is always the best tool in marginal / timing setups

Howard county schools closed

Widespread reports of 6-7” from my area to yours. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if you had 7-8”

Crazy part is that 2.6” likely fell in 2 hours max.

Approached 25:1 at the height of things. Was the fluffiest snow I’ve seen since leaving buffalo. Unreal, honestly.

We going to talk about the major improvements on the GFS? Been money so far this season. The fact that it did so well with a storm like this involving WAA, energy transfer to the coast, etc - is pretty dang impressive. Especially for a global suite. Did the best with Monday’s storm too. Do we have a new king in town?

Yeah man, you missed some crazy weather from 1-4am

Think the mega band that made its way from the Shen valley to Baltimore has weakened enough to where you won’t see those 2”+/hr rates, but I suspect you’ll pick up another few inches on the backend. It comes through like a bat out of hell. Ratios were over 20:1 under that band earlier.

By 00z next Wednesday, I have a feeling we’re going to be talking about a potential D5 MECS around these parts.

Have all of the beer ready

Yep! Looks like cold, broken by being on the warm side of the Sunday storm, into some days of normal temps in the 40’s before the pattern/cold reloads late next weekend as the MLK day storm forms. The 17th-30th has the potential to be an incredible period if the chips fall correctly. 00z Gfs was one of the weeniest runs I’ve ever seen. EPS mean looks tasty as well. Going to be a fun few weeks of tracking

Off to bed my friends. It’s been a pleasure. Looks like we’ll (hopefully) be back here around D10 doing it all over again

Long Island is a very tricky place to forecast. I’d argue one of the most difficult in the northeast. South shore and east end (forks) versus the north shore in Nassau county. I remember several storms where the north shore managed to stay all snow, while the Hampton got cold rain and sleet. When Long Island manages to stay all snow, they get pummeled. It is ideally placed for bands off the Atlantic from benchmark lows. You can see it with this storm. Those deep greens and yellows off the shoreline heading due north for the island. Incredible. Hell, I moved only 25 mins north of my old house here in Maryland and the difference is night and day. DC is a crazy phenomenon of its own. So, so unlucky with dry air.

Looking like 6” is going to be the final tally as things wrap up NWS Taunton / Boston upped their totals to 8-12”. No surprise there. The storm looks awfully impressive now that the coastal has taken over. Heavy snow spanning from Boston to Baltimore

That’s true. However, I was typically far enough northwest to see frozen precipitation during marginal events. Snow to ice was relatively common in those setups. 287/87 is typically the battle zone in that area. There were multiple events each winter where nyc and LI would be rain as it snowed 6+ in my neck of the woods. Elevation really takes off once you get 40+ miles away from NYC. New England usually did fair better 8/10 winters however. It’s crazy how much 10-20-30 miles means down here in Maryland / DC. Ellicott city versus DC versus Manchester in such a small geographic radius. It can be frustrating for sure, but at least it’s fun to track!