jayyy

Actually think he’s going to end up being fairly correct. I still think we end up with a storm that hugs the coast. Not the perfect area-wide MECS+ setup / track, especially for the cities, but much better than what we’re seeing on the GFS right now. This setup reminds me of several storms we saw in the early to mid 2000s which rode the immediate coastline. Snow to mix along 95 with a change to rain east of the bay, and 80+% snow for NW zones before a sleetfest

See you at 00z Friday

Good news is we have 4 full days between now and the storm to iron some of the details out. We should have much better data to sample by 00z Friday

Awful. I jinxed the sh*t out of that run

Welp, that was deflating. We are about to enter the Euro’s 3-5 day mid range wheelhouse. Let’s see if it trends even better at 0z or if this far west track trend is legit

This p type map LOL

Oof. Wow. This thing drives NW.

There will be no SWVA to DC low on this run

Mmmhmm

500mb is south. As is h5.

It’s coming my friend

Give me the 0z ICONs 500mb setup with a SW somewhere along the coast and I’ll happily roll the dice in my neck of the woods

Yep. Let’s get the trend started tonight with 0z with a slow but steady trend E over the next few days. Still plenty of ensemble members with great tracks and even some misses to the SE. Plenty of time for a consensus track in the middle to arise

Would really like to see a clear trend east begin by 12z tomorrow or 0z

Euro has similar temps. Don’t think it’s off base here. That southern Alabama low is intriguing

Whoever is JUST west of the mix / snow line come storm day is going to be quite happy. This has great banding written all over it and the moisture feed is going to be profound upstairs. Some models printing 1-2” qpf. Just a matter of where that fall line sets up I’d honestly take a nice 4-6” thump before a dry slot or sleet bomb in a heart beat, but I’m certainly rooting for more.

All we can really ask for 5 days out. I know many love to see those pretty pink colors on snow maps over our backyards - even on 5+ day out model runs - but I’d actually be more concerned if models were showing an area wide jack at this point because we know things will very likely shift between now and storm time.

Agreed. Anybody also thinking it has more of a Miller A look to it up top than what we’ve been seeing? Interested to see how that evolves over subsequent runs

Especially 50-60-100 mile adjustments. We’re talking about numerous features at play, in which a small difference in strength / location of one or multiple of those features could make the difference between a 3-6” type storm and a 6-12” type storm - especially for the 95 corridor. We’ve seen this song and dance before. No guarantee of course this plays out exactly how we want, but I’d bet pretty solid money that the end result is different than what’s being depicted right now. 3-6” thump before a changeover in the major cities with 6+ NW and 6+ for all are both still very much on the table.

So far this winter, it’s been pretty solid in the short, medium, and long range. Not many models you can say that about, if any. Still early on in its existence of course, but the results have been impressive to date. It sniffed out the last 2 storms as well.

Bingo. Said this earlier in the other thread. It’s far too early - especially with so many pieces at play and such a dynamic setup - to be worrying about a particular runs surface look on day 6; worrying about p-type and clown maps is ill advised. Ensembles, h5, 500mb - my day 6 starter pack for model watching For me… what I took out of today is that a clear trend has been set for a significant coastal storm, instead of a far southern slider. Now we let the storm get into the euro and king (new) gfs’s wheelhouse and iron out things like spacing / location of features, storm track, strength of storm, over the next 2 or so days before we get too excited / worried. When have we ever wanted to be in the jackpot day 5/6 anyhow!? Thank you for your calming words and of course, all of the knowledge you share here. You, PSU, Bob Chill, and several others here are invaluable to this forum.

Yep

Us? Invested in a potential D6 MECS? never.

Plus, the SE forum jinxed themselves long before we did. They’ve had a thread up for days. This sucker is ours.

Just a wee bit