jayyy

Agreed. Think we’ve been on the same page all long. I tend to do well when you and @clskinsfan do well. I think our corridor is very much in the game here. You guys even more so than me due to being further west. Worst case, I think we see a solid thump before a sleet bomb, but I’m not discounting a 90+% snow event either. There is far too much time left and too many players on the proverbial field to give up hope at this point - especially when 50-100 mile shifts ESE could significantly up our totals. long way to go. If 00z trends in the wrong direction again, that’s when I’ll begin to worry.

Not sure if this is still the case versus how it used to work, but we should have a bunch of new data to work with at 00z. CRUCIAL series of runs. If 00z Gfs and company come in snowier than 18z, we’re still very much in business being 60+ hours out. But we really do need that trend to start and be pronounced tonight. Wouldn’t be the first or last time we scored a coup within 48-72 hours. Might be wishful thinking - especially for the 95 crew, but I do think there are many locations in NoVA and C MD that are still very much in the game. Time is running thin though. As far as my general area over to highway 15 and out to Winchester and points W, we are still very much in the game for a significant snowfall.

Duuuuude, we get pummeled

The NAM is undervalued at 84 hr with numerous upper air features and phasing at play? How, exactly?

Very little change besides that. Not sure how much that will matter when the issue is how early we’re phasing

Those highs wont save us. If that massive storm is still spinning out in the Atlantic, there’s no room for our storm to track off the coast.

Yup. Thank you.

If it gets captured early as depicted on models, sadly. We’ve seen many storms like this over the years where the evolution in the south / southeast is nearly perfect, but the trough axis isn’t or we have energy capturing our low and pulling it NW. It’s going to be tough to see a low near the Carolina coastline with snow breaking out as far south as SC, just to see it get yanked NW and the mid levels get destroyed by an easterly fetch. Really hope models aren’t handling the NS correctly, but it’s hard to bank on that when every single OP run has a similar outcome. Hopefully more data by 00z tonight will help start a new and clear trend SE

That L is literally 5-10 mins southwest of my house

Anybody able to post a quick image showing the euros trends from 12z yesterday through today? Definitely seems to be moving in the right direction. I guess the question is, is there enough time to push this sucker east enough. One thing I’m fairly confident of - Winchester over to 15 and up to 81 are going to get smoked. Less confident about my area, as it seems to be a battle zone, and I-95 of course.

Hoping we see a sub 60 hour steal like last Monday, but the windows rapidly closing.

100%. I said this last night. If we were jackpotting at this juncture, it would ultimately not turn out that way. The problem is, there’s no trend east really occurring.

Precisely. I meant more in the way of the outcome (snowfall totals) than timing

It’s not really going to be about latitude here. Our issue is how far west this storm comes, allowing an easterly wind to torch upper levels. You can be at the PA/MD border north of Baltimore or up in Philly or New York City and still see the same result as places further south than you along the same longitude. There is going to be an east to west snow gradient. Not the typical “as long as you’re further north” deal we have around these parts. Could very well see places like Manchester get 2-4” before a slopfest occurs as Emmitsburg or Hancock gets 6-12+, despite having a similar latitude. Could also see DC with more snow than Baltimore because of this. If this low indeed tracks over Baltimore or west, York & Lancaster PA will meet a similar fate as Baltimore.

If it’s the coldest and snowiest, then of course

We’re about to get NAM’d aren’t we

That 977 low well offshore would be SWEET

Agreed. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that models are beginning to shift east a bit at 500mb / H5 as upper air features begin to make their way onto the CONUS for better sampling. We need to see 12z take a meaningful step in our direction so that we can say this the start of a trend, and not just fine tuning a bit

The westward trend has stopped. If anything, we’ve seen a slight improvement at 500mb and a resulting tick east. Of course, a low running over the bay and to PHL still isn’t great, but it’s better than a low tracking over Hagerstown to Harrisburg. We need to see 12z and 0z tonight take a meaningful step east to keep the hope alive for a mainly snow event along the 95 corridor

GFS Ens Mean is awfully snowy for W NC into SW VA

Mmmhm

Random chaos, in other words.

Solid.

Maps or it didn’t happen!

If the models still look like this 00z Friday when the storm is onshore and we have a ton more data to sample, I’ll be much more concerned than I am now.