jayyy

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Dig baby, dig!

is all of that heavy precip just off the coast of Wilmington, NC from the initial NS wave? Or is that the beginnings of our coastal? Reason I ask is because that precip is moving NE

Asbury park NJ

That’s what she said?

Yep. Been peeping in at my cam during my drive, and snow has continued in some way shape or form since about 5 AM at my place. Stickage should improve drastically as we head into the 6-7 o’clock hour and the radar lights up a bit. Been pretty to look at though

What? No, “is that an early phase on the wv loop” post yet?! I’m disappointed made it to my destination… now we wait.

Looks like it’ll reach you

12k nam last night had the radar filling in as the day progresses into a nice swath of snow over the mid Atlantic. Let’s see if that verifies or if it remains spotty

Mike really said 6-10” surprise possible for Baltimore on air? Ballsy. Wonder what he’s seeing lol

Not sure I’d be using the euro at this juncture, but yeah, not great

Look off the Wilmington NC coast. Convection beginning? Some thunderstorms popping up

lol, of course the NYC to Hartford area is seeing legit snow this early. Why wouldn’t they

Alrighty, I’m off to asbury park. Besides some snow showers along the way, should be a relatively painless drive. Good luck everyone! Hoping for a bust to the upside for the entire sub

Relax there chief. It was never supposed to accumulate at 11 am in Delaware. You’ll see plenty of snow. Your fun is the coastal.

Radar filling in again nearby 31* Snow - 0.5”, maybe a bit more since earlier this AM

I haven’t checked whether or not it’s reaching the ground here yet, but I suspect it is. Some Steadier returns over Fredrick and west Carroll county currently.

Down to 26 here. Man, that UHI is no joke huh? EDIT: it’s actually snowing up this way. Radar confirms snow shower activity in N MD and some pockets of light to moderate snow in PA near highway 22

Nice to see short term / meso models all nudging West as we get closer to game time. Gfs as well, although not as pronounced. It has definitely been interesting to see so many changes from run to run - especially with no current low pressure center to track. Typically there is some semblance of a storm formed 24 hours out for models to track. A typical Miller b would at least have a primary wave to track across the country before the secondary coastal low forms and takes over. This time around, each model is trying to analyze the environment in which a coastal low will form off the Atlantic and the h5 setup leading up to that moment - resulting in a decent amount of variation among models when it comes to surface output despite being < 24 hours out from game time. Interested to watch this all unfold in real time, no matter how it shakes out.

Blizzard warnings issued from coastal DE to NE NJ over to Nantucket and Boston

At least what were rooting for — a slightly further west track than what’s being modeled - is a fairly common occurrence. Better digging out west, a slightly earlier phase, the trough a bit sharper, etc. in order to keep the storm relatively close to the coast despite a lack of blocking. The problem is the setup. The lack of any semblance of blocking is the thing leaving me pretty skeptical, but I guess we’ll see if there’s any surprises in store come tonight.

Too bad the 32k and 3k nam don’t agree. They are still further E

6z, yes. It’s the 12K run.

2.5” qpf for Nantucket. 2” from ocean city all the way up the coastline to LI. Obviously overdone, but dayum.

Total QPF. Sadly, it’s the NAM