jayyy

Thump of snow coming for the Columbia area based on radar Great start up in Union bridge so far. Temp down 2.5 degrees since we started.

So odd to see snow sticking to roads before the grass. Not often we see that around here. Lovely out there. Feels like a major snowstorm is coming — damn you inland track. Although, if my WSW for 4-7” verifies, I’ll be MORE than happy

WSW upped from 2-4” then ice to 4-7” then ice for my location. Let’s see

Hey! Another UB member! Howdy neighbor.

I’d much rather see a storm slide south of us 5/6 days out on the models than be in the bullseye. We’ve seen this song and dance too many times before.

18F / 5 @ mi casa Models are definitely busting high on surface temps at this juncture, but unless the h5 and surface lows magically shift hundreds of miles east, the general area will meet the same fate as we’ve been expecting for a few days now. Guess there’s a shot at a few extra hours of wintry weather, but we’ve seen this setup before (low driving over or west of us) — we always comment on temps being lower than expected leading up to it, and the mid levels get torched all the same. If my house gets 3-4” of snow into a sleet fest and/or dryslot, I’d consider that a win in this setup. He is absolutely wishcasting

So long as we don’t make a thread for it 4+ days out We had a feeling the second storm could be the “one” as it would be forming with the pattern fully settled in. The threat is real, let’s see if she materializes.

From my experience living up in that area, it’s One of the worst places off Lake Erie for both synoptic and lake effect snow.

Nope. Any news

If this storm somehow defies every single model and goes east, this will be dubbed the WinterWxLuvr storm no doubt 18/1 — 1029 mbar — Union bridge WSW up for 2-4” before ice. Right along the lines of what I’m expecting but hoping for more

It’s alright guys, at 18z DT will release a new snow map, claiming the models will pick up on the effects of the volcanic eruption flaring tsunami advisories along the west coast, shifting our storm hundreds of miles east downstream. Stay focused. **sarcasm**

Imagine it comes in 150-200 miles SE of last run and we get rocked. #PlotTwist

Come oooon 00z, don’t do us dirty

NAVGAP still offshore?

I know NAM gets trashed, which is usually pretty spot on when we’re talking about 60-84 hours, but if the 12k and 3K are showing a major ice storm at the 24-48 hour mark, we need to be paying attention, as the NAM is better at picking up mid level warming in these setups than the GFS.

Just as we have suspected for days now - many in the subwill need to rely on the WAA thump for snow outside of far NW zones. 1-3/2-4” before the changeover is a reasonable forecast for dc and Baltimore with higher amounts as you head WNW of the 95 corridor. The euro is indeed trending the way we need it to as PSU pointed out, but it’s trending too slowly. Going to need to see the trend continue in Ernest at 12z and beyond or else we simply don’t have enough time to get to where we need to be by the time Sunday rolls around

Knew when I woke up and there were only 4 more pages of content that 00z and 6z weren’t that great. Still 48 hours away. Let’s see if we’ve got any last minute magic in us

Hate how on the cusp my area is for this one. 4-8” before a flip seems like a solid consensus

That comes in a week or two when the pattern has settled in

Warm nose has spoken about the warm nose. It’s a lock.

Let’s get that good 00z juju going up in here. #JebRuns

Yeah, I’ll take 70-90% and run

Believe so. 18z Gfs gives them that 5”

Very true. One thing is for sure, ill be up through the 00z euro run tonight as we enter it’s wheelhouse. Feeling very good about our chances of a warning event

THERE HE IS! Dude. We need your persistent optimism. Worked wonders last week.