jayyy

I think Columbia will end up in the 2-3” range. So perhaps a tie

Gotta love how the “stat padder” now looks like its may end up producing more snow than the last storm for the 95 crew lol. Gotta love weather

We get SO close (on a few different occasions) to seeing a big snowstorm in our area….. details to be ironed out later of course…. but man, if we can manage a few 3-6/4-8” type events over the next 2-3 weeks, that certainly wouldn’t be a fail either. We’d see the major terminals over climo and many of us would be well above where we should be by end of January. Of course, getting a big KU would satisfy the weenie craving during such a tasty pattern, but you won’t find me complaining if we manage to pile up between 1-2 feet of snow over the next few weeks with multiple advisory / low end warning snowfalls one after the other. Especially with the advertised cold, as snowpack would largely remain in tact throughout the period. Lots of fun tracking ahead of us! Can’t wait to do it with you knuckleheads.

Let’s goooooo! 4”? Yes please.

72 hours out with a storm SE of us and a ton of cold air. We’ve certainly been in worse positions before a storm. 00z trended better at h5/500mb. Not counting out the metro corridor and points SE until at least 0z tomorrow or 12z thurs

I don’t see a worsening trend here whatsoever. If anything, things look better at 500mb than previous runs. Plenty of room for this to change - the issue is, there’s also plenty of room for this to track further SE as well. Too much time left to assume an outcome in either direction with the looming large differences at h5/500 The window is closing for places in far W and NW portions of the CWA, but 95 and east? Still PLENTY of time.

It’s fine guys - we created a thread - so now the NW trend, by weenie law, must commence at 0z tonight

It’s definitely dead for them. We are close enough to the event where I’d say the DC - Baltimore and MAYBE Philly metro are still very much in the game for appreciable snow - but almost zero shot NYC or Boston sees anything significant from this. Nothing to capture the storm or drive it north up the coast.

The hi res NAM - which is supposed to be good at deciphering setups like we saw with the last storm / had places NW of Winchester seeing 2-3” the day before the storm. That model is completely out to lunch. They should just revert back for the ETA and call it a day

And at that point we’re using the HRRR / RAP and Nowcasting anyway

Exactly. It’s not like we’re seeing the Euro GFS GEFS Ukie NAM and company with near identical 500mb/h5 setups and just slight differences in end result from something like the trough axis. There are still HUGE differences in the evolution of the pattern / storm leading into this event on almost every model. We are going to need to wait until the proverbial players on the field before we start seeing models come around to a consensus. It is completely normal for that to happen within 72-84 hours of an event. Those claiming they are certain that things will happen one way or the other are making predictions based on gut feelings / hopium - nothing more.

You’re not dreaming. Still well within range to see enough of shift north to see advisory / low end warning snowfall in the metro corridor and points ESE. Some models already showing it, although it would be nice to see an appreciable trend begin at 18z or 0z tonight Writing the storm off this early when models are still all over the place with the 500mb setup is silly Give me a bob chill 3-6 type event with temps in the upper teens and 20s and I’m happy as can be. This is just after the mid point in January in the mid Atlantic and we’re talking about events #4 and 5 hitting by the end of this week. People Complaining about that is ridiculous, I’m sorry The need for some to see a MECS or HECS potential with every coastal is honestly pretty annoying.

PM me the strains you “partake” with. I need me some of those.

Womp

GFS, GEFS, Ukie all move toward Euro and not the other way around. The misses are to the south. Can’t say I hate where we’re sitting right now. If we want one model to show a hit at day 5, it’s the Euro OP

We’re seriously discounting this storm because the GFS doesn’t have it 5-6 days out? Icon RGEM and cmc are all more similar to the Euro than the GFS at 500 & H5. Also, the GFS’s 5 day verification score hasn’t actually been that good as of late. The storm we scored 2 Monday’s ago was a nothing burger until about 48-60 hours out. Anything is still possible. Buffalo wasn’t seeing 1-2 feet of snow from yesterdays system until about 72 hours out. I get that we have different climo, but the point remains the same regarding track and evolution of systems. This can’t be as black and white as “one model has this nailed down perfectly and the other is completely wrong” this far out. Both could very well be incorrect and the solution lies somewhere in the middle or… something entirely different plays out altogether. We need yesterdays system out of the picture and the prospective players on the field before we can start discounting models entirely. Hoping one is right because it shows snow or saying the GFS is right because it’s done OK lately is not a legit way to go about It. We all know It is going to take near perfect timing for this to pan out, but discounting it entirely this far out is just silly.

Ehh.. euro gives us 4-8” or so. Not exactly locked in given the spread between models and the differences in 500mb evolution

My buddy outside of buffalo said they have snowflakes the size of golf balls falling right now with 3-4” per hour rates. Nearly 10” fell within just a few hours. Will easily surpass 20” up that way. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 24+“ report between buffalo and Niagara Falls by the afternoon

What a storm! Warning level snow to very heavy sleet and then heavy ZR. LOVE it.

Man… that line moved like a bat out of hell over the past hour

Nah. Lol. Mix line is barely to your SE. you’ll be sleet in under 30 min

Yessir! We’re still hangin’ on for now. 8 pm is my guess for our latitude for a changeover. Been a great last 3 hours though

Temp gradient is insane on each side of the BR

Will have to check that out!

Not too shabby! Where are you at versus climo?