jayyy

When they start off on the low side, you tend to see them uptick at game time. It’s when they start off bullish that you’re like shit, things can only go south from here. Since we’re into thread and forecast superstitions these days [emoji1787]

I would be too after they died on their 1-2” hill last storm.

They should just eliminate hours 42-84 and make it a short range model. It’s certainly better than the FV3 at this point. Did pretty well with the last storm once we were within 36 hours or so. Pretty shitty outside 36 hours but that’s fine. Use it for its strengths.

Euro and NAM both painting 4-5” around these parts. Come on GFS!

You heard Roger… there’s 18” of snow near the Idaho panhandle. We got this.

I’ll take a GFS Euro blend for $1, Alex. 2-3” seems reasonable as a boom scenario for now.

He even drew you a weenie back into Leesburg. .

Idk, guess it’s location dependent, but I’m 36% of the way to climo (99% of us don’t average 50” per year) with feb and mar still to go. That’s not an F in my eyes. I’m not an easy pleaser either. I grew up in an area that averages over double the annual snowfall my current location averages. 1996-2015 up there was an absolutely epic 20 year period, so I’m no stranger to incredible seasons. F grade is a bit harsh considering where we actually live. Versus expectation after multiple dud years? Disappointing no doubt, but an F? Nah.

I’d take the 3-3.5” this depicts IMBY in a heartbeat

What in the actual fack is the IBM Model?

You’ve never heard of Dover, Charlottesville, Atlantic City, etc? lol .

It has nothing to do with the merits of your winter grade. Calling it a grade A winter is equally as irrelevant to the Friday threat. That’s all I’m saying. And tbh, every single post as of late from you = Deb city. I know it’s hard not to be given what we’ve dealt with the past few years, but there’s a place for it. That’s all. Your assessment of the winter so far is pretty accurate I’d say. I’d probably go with a D grade but that’s just me. F is the worst possible grade and nothing about this winter is worse than last year.

Nothing like a 1104 hour ensemble control snow map… Why even post this? It shows 20”+ of snow in the Atlantic Ocean at the same latitude lol. It has 9.4” to our south but 2” over cape. This map is completely useless and will change every single day between now and hour 1104.

We have different threads for a reason.

Panic. Room. .

Now all we need is the 2nd thread after the cancel and a 3rd to bring it back.

it’s loading up the NAMing code as we speak.

HRRR was awful with the last storm, even in the immediate term. It was already snowing outside and it had the storm essentially missing us to the North with 4-6+ amounts in SW PA. Using the HRRR 24+ hours out is a fools errand.

So do the pbp yourself.. ya weenie

Scott alluded to that earlier as well. Certainly not impossible that the storm ends up being a bit more dynamic as the vort passes. If models are dry by even 0.2 qpf, that’s the difference between 1-3 and 3-5

Evening time is the best time to moisten up… so I hear @ravensrule .

Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear

You weren’t here last storm? Yeah imma need you to stay put dawg

All models show between 1-4” of snow for most of us. While what we need to improve differs from last storm, we are in a similar position in that it appears very likely it will snow and that the path to a bit of a boom scenario (3-5 instead of 1-3) isn’t THAT far off. 00z tomorrow will be pretty telling as to whether or not this system will be a bit more juiced than models show currently. Setup doesn’t exactly favor this outcome but you never know.

Not necessarily opposed to the jet being shunted south if we don’t also have an overwhelming block to shove storms out to sea. Leaves room for us to get a bit lucky and have a storm track up from the south off the NC VA coastline. +PNA helps when we don’t have an omega 2 or 3 block in place. Room to score, even if unconventional.