jayyy

100%. The need for some to see a SECS MECS or HECS in the MA region every storm is frustrating to say the least. 2-4” out of a storm that was tracking to Bermuda a few days back is a win in my book. If we can get more, even better, but I’d be happy with a solid advisory event. IF current trends continue over the next few days, I could see a 2-4” in the metros with 3-6” out your way type deal unfolding.

I know 00z was a step back after we trended in the right direction most of the day yesterday, but overall, the trend is still our friend and it’s becoming clear this thing will likely trend west, not east, as we get closer.

Historically, the Gfs does tend to be too progressive / flat and underestimate ridging, resulting in a SE bias, but that may no longer be the case since it was upgraded

You are still very much in the game for sure. Id say anyone from 95 east still is, but especially areas east of the bay. I’d like to see models further west right now of course, but we’ve certainly been in worse positions at D4

Perfectly put. I like this sentence here “However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.”

Despite the low spawn out by the Bahamas, we still almost get brushed and SNE gets hit hard (E LI to Boston and downeast Maine) If the low spans along the gulf coast instead, we are very much in the game

Models really have no clue how to handle the energy in the SW. Still so many different looks at h5 across the board. We won’t have a consensus for Saturday’s storm until models get a better handle on what’s going on out west (how much energy is left behind, if any, and the amplitude / positioning of the ridge) Until that occurs, I'm not all in on a given solution at this juncture. 6z rgem vs NAM vs ICON is the perfect example. One leaves most of the energy behind, while another kicks it all the way out, resulting in vastly different outcomes.

It’s almost euro wheelhouse time (whatever that’s worth anymore) let’s see how 0z looks.

If this isn’t going to improve at all, i’d take the 2-3” the Gfs shows with a nyc and PHL miss and call it a day.

The same 18z euro that gave us an inch of snow? They weren’t insinuating it was a big hit coming. Just stating facts.

Yep. We have to rely entirely on hoping for an amped up / perfectly placed ridge out west, enough digging of the SW, the trough to go negative enough and at the right time, and a perfectly placed coastal low when it pops. Blocking allows us to not need a royal flush at h5 / 500mb to see a nice snowstorm from a coastal low. Without it, it’s easy for storms to fall apart for our area. Hard to get a perfect upper air setup when there’s so many different variables to consider.

Ji is MECS/HECS or bust. We all know this.

Hopefully it’s just 18z nonsense and we see something more tangible with more data at 0z. fugly run, indeed. This thing probably misses SNE too on the 18z Gfs

Like the buffalo bills in the early 90s…. Wide right.

Looks like the GFS is catching up a bit at h5. Initialization looks more accurate than 12z

Give that good JiJi (juju)

Won’t take much to get some decent totals back west of the bay. Just a few more days of this trend and we’re in ok shape

To me, a 6+ Snowfall hasn’t been ruled out for the Baltimore metro - moreso than DC being that it’s further NE and better positioned in this setup. 12+ definitely ain’t happening though.

Slow and steady trend west. Exactly what we want to see at this juncture

I think it’s more of a hybrid than a pure miller B, but I may be wrong. ————— Models appear to not be amped enough with the ridge out west at initialization, which is no doubt helping push the storm too Far East downstream. Still plenty of time for the W trend to continue and to see an advisory to low level warning event (of cold smoke) for I-95 and points east. (Upslope out west will provide more snow than the coastal) Side note: The moment some folks stop obsessing over our area needing to jackpot or outsnow the PHL - NYC - BOS corridor, the sooner they’ll come to peace with what we do end up getting. Get this insane notion out of your heads that we will outsnow NYC / LI to Boston with a hybrid Miller b setup. It ain’t happening. Also, not every snowfall needs to be a MECS/HECS. Folks are living in the wrong area if they expect those type of results.

You gotta love to see it. Few more ticks west and it’d be game on. Overall trend is clear as day tonight.

If we fail, we likely fail either far out to sea or the typical Miller b screw job with too late of a bomb out and nyc to Boston gets smacked. Far too progressive of a flow to see an apps cutter

Gives us some room for a consensus hit down the middle over the next several days. Not mad about it.

Certainly a nice trend tonight