jayyy

HRRR NAM Euro RGEM - all on board. Probably the combination we want on our side at this juncture (sub 24 hours). Only “hold out” of importance is the GFS, which still paints a few inches over the entire sub forum tomorrow. Barring some wild swing back in the other direction at 18z and 00z, I’m definitely liking our chances here. NW folks should be getting excited, no doubt.

If I manage to get 4-6” of snow in 6ish hours with rapidly crashing temps and 30-40+mph winds out of this storm… a storm that looked dead 48 hours out… in march nonetheless.. that’d be a GREAT way to send winter off, no doubt.

Looking like a consensus around a solid 2-4” advisory event for the metros is building. Would like to see 12z and especially 18z continue this trend and it’s game on there IMO. Highly depends on rates once the transition occurs. For my area over to emmitsburg, Winchester, and on east to PSUland — this is shaping into a money march setup. Warnings looking likely for our tier by tonight.

HRRR RGEM NAM blend is a solid 6”+ storm here. I taketh. NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold.

3k nam 6Z - several hours of snow after the changeover

6z 12K NAM. Heavy snow in the bal dc metro corridor as it’s pouring rain in NYC and BOS. ps - where was this low positioning during the late January blizzard

HRR / Euro / RAP / CMC blend for $500 please honestly though… when do we begin to take this backend snow possibility seriously? I’d be elated at a backend 2-3” up this way.

It is indeed. You can see the warm pocket fairly rapidly making its way up into the Harrisburg metro. Appears folks near the MD PA border are seeing a burst of heavy snow before a quick switchover (makes sense with most intense precip usually near the rain/snow line) Emmitsburg just flipped back to rain and Gettysburg’s in the process of doing so now. My folks up in the nyc suburbs are all snow and have a SWS in place for 1-2” on grassy surfaces.

It’s changing back to mix / rain in northern MD as we speak. My son just reported heavy snow with rain mixing back in rapidly. Radar confirms

My sons reporting heavy snow just outside emmitsburg, but that it’s mixing back with rain again

Color me interested.

Nah. -2-4” of Snow in march doesn’t = 93 redux lol

Actually… 19 degrees in 6 hours is really not a huge deal. March, April, July. Doesn’t matter. It happens and happens pretty often. Especially up this way.

Curious to see if the NAMs hold suit at 00z and more importantly, @ 12z and 0z tomorrow. It is waaay more aggressive for Wednesday than other guidance

I think most guidance will ultimately trend colder over the next several days, but I’m still very skeptical we get much, if any, snow out of the advertised look at H5. Chaotic and progressive in nature, and it’s March. Color me skeptical for sure. Would love to be wrong but I’m going to keep my expectations very low and hopefully I receive a nice surprise come Saturday.

This comment deserves way more than one like. Nicely done. As it stands right now, I have no interest in the Wednesday event. Precip chasing marginal cold air after multiple days in the 70s? Non starter for me. Even up here in “snowy” Carroll county. Gonna need to head to buffalo for that one if you want to catch a few sloppy inches at best. The storm, if you can even call it that at this point, has continued to trend weaker. The QPF and precip intensity being advertised won’t get it done Saturday? That’s a bit of a different story. My interest is low to medium level for that timeframe. Doesn’t help that the GFS is the only model that is REALLY advertising such a quick advance of cold air (hmm.. where have we heard that before?) ahead of the storm and near perfect timing at h5. With the development of a coastal low and snow almost being entirely dependent on timing, phasing, etc… it’s not very comforting to only have the GFS honking. Good news is we are still a long way out so this is by no means set in stone. It’s hard to imagine us being able to pull this off in mid-March, when we couldn’t do it all winter long, but crazier things have certainly happened. Let’s see the euro and Canadian move toward the GFS in the coming days and then I’m in for the tracking

That’s the #2 ranked model right there!! Lock it in

It’s forecasted to be 78-80 in dc on Monday depending on the model lol

This is the time of season where you can easily tell where posters live. I am of the same mindset as @losetoa6 calm, cool and collected, knowing more snows likely coming by the end of the month. Perhaps multiple. Ji? Well… you know he’s from wherever warmchaserchuck’s from in his mind - which is prob. eastern loudon county. Feeling decent about our chances of seeing a paste bomb in the 3/10-3/14 timeframe - especially for the north of 70 crew up, into psuland and clskinsfanland… which is the time period when we appear to have the best combination of having cold air around and having an active jet stream. Love these extreme boundary patterns where you have 10s and 20s in the north and 80s and 90s in the south. It is currently 1 degree in Caribou ME and in the 80s in the south. This is how we get moisture-laden storms that ring out into cold air domes. March sucks for snow climo wise, but boy, when it works out, it often works out well. As big chill stated on the previous page, these setups, like all others, obviously don’t often pan out — especially with it being March in the mid Atlantic — but when they do, you can see a situation unfold where a slow moving 1005mb low off the coast can dump a foot of goop on us. You don’t need all of the synoptic magic we saw back in January when the coast got slammed with that blizzard. The temp gradient and propensity for more intense, slower moving storms does a lot of the work for us. Climo becomes even more important as we head closer to official spring, as the type of pattern were entering is conducive of the types of snowstorms that can dump 6-12” up north and nothing but white rain near the UHI. I know some of you out there made moves further north toward mappyland USA and the snow capital of central Maryland Carroll county this winter… and while this winter as a whole has been subpar… there’s a decent chance you will soon find out why your move was a good one with multiple marginal events ahead of us

Radar is indeed juicy

Local Forecasters up where I am this weekend are calling for between 1” and 6” lmao. Hoping to see 2-3” of some paste. Kinda sucks to see forecasts of 8-12” just north of here

This is our time to shine. Late feb into mid March.

Current observations Back at home in Union bridge MD - 32F with on and off spotty drizzle for the past hour. Currently dry. DP is 24. Under a WWA for mixed precip - up to an inch of snow and 1/10” of ice Current location: new city, NY - my parents have a nifty weather station. 31F / 15F mostly cloudy - Visibility 10mi - 4MPH ENE wind - Under a WWA for 3-5” of Snow / sleet. Hoping this doesn’t cancel the surprise 50th anniversary party me and my brothers are throwing for our folks tomorrow evening. Thankfully snow removal up here is way more efficient than back at home

Ahh, that’s my neck of the woods! You playing over at Francis Scott key?

Luck of the draw on this storm. Up at my folks house to celebrate their 50th anniversary in Rockland county. Their expecting 3-6” here by 1 pm tomorrow