jayyy

Thinking the same. A high end advisory to low end warning snowfall areawide would be a win. We truly need things to go just right to score big in these setups

Does it matter what we think? Not you, Ji.

What do you think? 00z Euro steps back toward the GFS? Or moves toward the NAM?

Omg awful. Guess I’m staying up for the euro. Going to need to see more models (other than the NAM and Euro) to show a warning event for 95 to make this official, otherwise it’s likely going to whiff just east. PSU is spot on about the NAM & Euro’s tendency to overdo the western edge of a coastal. Tomorrow is only Wednesday, and we are certainly looking FAR better than we did two days ago, but let’s get the Gfs and Canadian on board before we get too excited. Really anxious to see what the NAM looks like at 12z tomorrow

Upon further inspection - the 00z NAM has snow starting from the NS at hour 63-66 and it’s snowing at 84 with several hours left of snow to go. Low ends up going just east of our sweet spot but it’s a solid ass event

I’m intrigued

JMA @ 72

Pics or it didn’t happen

For sure. When have they ever verified outside 48 hours

Really need to start utilizing this feature.

NAM. Is. So. Slow.

Let’s bring her home

Thank you.

One of the better h5 setups we’ve seen through 39 thus far

NAM’ing inbound?

Side note after digging into the specifics a bit. The 850 MB low on the 18z euro is significantly deeper than on the 12Z ECMWF run and in the same position. Just an observation.

Solid setup coming

Correct. It’s fine to have differing opinions on things - no need to be condescending in the process. I get that a given model isn’t necessarily “trending”, but when models are collecting more recent data, and that data results in a systematic shift in a particular direction 2 days in a row, one could consider that an overall trend. If all models are moving west, to say we are seeing a west trend with the outcome is a reasonable thing to say. At least in my eyes. We’re parsing words here honestly. Pretty stupid argument lol. What else would you call it?

I haven’t said a word since I made one comment about hoping for an average of a 25 mile shift west with each run. Which, is completely plausible. Coming from someone who uttered the words “the storm being further west won’t help us”, you should probably get off your high horse on this one. No one cares about your definition of the word trend. Carry on. By the way - it’s called the rock and sock connection.

Great. If you’re looking at it from the perspective of things slowly shifting in a direction over a period of time, it’s a trend. How’s Philly

It’s fine. It’s not great if you want a MECS or HECS to occur, yes, but a track offshore with proper phasing and a mature moisture field can still lay down 3-6” in your area - even with the low not tucked. Of course, the OCMD tuck is the perfect scenario, but it’s unlikely to happen given the setup. If people have reasonable expectations for a complex Miller B in a niña, we’ll likely end up doing just fine

This is great and all, except for the fact that there are absolutely trends on models

I’m on lunch at work. Time for some happy hour drinks to bring in the good juju

It matters when we’re talking about trends. JMA euro and NAM on their own island is an issue. However, having the ICON CMC RGEM and GFS also see a nice west trend, it brings legitimacy to the possibility.

As @psuhoffman has said a few times, we need to be cautious here. Only having the NAM / Euro showing such a west solution is a bit of a warning sign given their know biases to overdo the western flank of storms. We need to see other models continue the trend west