jayyy

I’ll be here through the euro. Last EC run I really care about. Inside 72 it’s not so useful (not like it’s been great in the mid range this winter either) - What I really want to see from the euro is the look at 500 /h5 versus the Canadian, nam, and Gfs. Less concerned about surface output since thats still all over the place across most models. (Would seriously hate to be a met along the east coast right now)

Holy hell. What did I miss

I may still head to see my family up north depending on how this all shakes out at 0z Its pretty wild how differently each model is still handling the energy in the SW at this range.

My apologies. So… one model (with a known bias to overdo phasing and the western flank of coastals) as the rest lost 1-2 feet of digital snow. Not much better :/

Stage 5 meltdown in progress in the NE forum. Oof. NAM GFS ICON and RGEM all crumbled after showing 1-3 feet for days. That’s rough.

It wasn’t what you said. It was how you said it friend.

Just popped in to give my condolences for the 30” of digital snow porn the NAM Euro ICON and RGEM just took away. But hey, at least you’re not in the mid Atlantic.

I’m honestly interested in the PRE that LWX mentions in their AFD. Pete Mullinax also refers to this in his twitter thread; the possibility of enhanced snowfall / banding in our area from the NS wave. It appears the NS wave overperforming is many of our best shot to see appreciable snowfall at this point, except for CAPE’s area.

Unless we see some drastic changes at 00z, I’m likely heading up north to “see family” for this one

Not necessarily. If places manage 2-3” from the NS and 1-2” from the coastal (95 east) and a bit less further west, it’s doable. But I agree that the trend isn’t being our friend right now. Another few runs like this, and yeah, even these totals are too high. But it’s early. They have time to fine tune.

I’d sign up in a heartbeat

Yep. 6z icon is a whiff too. Even further east than the GFS and Nam

6z Nam/Gfs 00z euro and 3z SREF already pretty damn similar with low position — all too Far East. SNE gets the brunt. Even NYC is too far west for the goodies. Not a good start to the day. Suspect the ICON, 6z euro and the rest will follow suit.

No one but cape cod and extreme SE NE really gets in on the very heavy stuff. Gets going too late. Hopefully it’s a progressive bias, but without blocking, we cannot rule this likelihood out. We need an earlier phase and the trough to go negative earlier. If this continues, 00z tonight is when I likely throw up the white flag for the metro corridor

Trough didn’t go negative in time - 6z Gfs There is certainly time / room for improvements — however, the windows closing on us fast. We need to see better hits by 00z tonight or we’re in trouble.

Not a great sign to see the snowiest solutions (euro and nam) trend flatter as we get closer. We need them to hold suit and others to move toward them, not vice Versa. Thankfully it’s still only Wednesday. I’ll wait until 00z Thursday night before throwing in the towel for 95 & points east. Windows closing quickly for western areas without seeing meaningful changes in the upcoming runs, no doubt.

Definitely not a great start to the 6z suite

Surface low appears further east

So. Slow. On TT

Ridge out west continues to look good

Fell asleep, just for my body to wake me up at 3 am on the dot. Shocker. 6z nam out to 27

It’s so tempting

You say that if it’s a bad thing! how mad can we be at 4-8” in the Baltimore area with such a setup? Sure, a good 6-12”+ MECS would be great, but I’d take 4-8” in a heartbeat if I could lock it in now. 2-4/3-6 is my expectation unless we see better runs at 12z and Beyond

Can’t argue with the fact that the Gfs tends to be a bit too flat / progressive outside of 72 hours and that it typically trends west as we approach game time. Man…. what id do to have ANY semblance of blocking to the NE heading into this storm.

Yep. I lived just outside of NYC for 26 years growing up. Seen this type of setup enough times to know that E NJ NYC / LI into coastal New England are almost guaranteed to get hit hard by this. My parents house in the lower Hudson valley about 30 miles NNW of nyc is a bit more hit or miss in these setups. Evolutions like the 00z NAM would absolutely crush them with 12-18” under intense CCB bands streaming off the Atlantic. More easterly tracking storms would fringe their area with 2-4” while LI to cape cod saw 12-24”. There was a winter in the early 2000s where we saw numerous east tracking Miller B storms and LI saw 50+“ for the winter while we only saw 20” or so. It was rough. My hope for down here is a solid advisory level event (3-5”) combining the initial NS snow and a brush from the coastal with a potential low end warning boom (6-8) for 95 on east if the stars align.