jayyy

It’ll be awesome to watch this all unfold at h5/500mb and to nowcast this sucker

Would be great to see 2-3” out of the initial ish

Good f-ing lord, that 18z euro lmao Models showing a cool 30”+ spread in SNE only 24 hours out. Taunton must be having fun with this one

So close. Yet so far.

Lmao, someone forecast gif hours 24-48 on the GFS 500 & MSLP maps. The progression the low goes through is absurd

Based on NWS’s expected snowfall map, a WAA isn’t going to be issued for anyone west of the bay

JMA has the trough far too broad for our liking. Goes Well east

Oof

How much for Philly?

MPP has an ice rink!?

3K looks pretty decent with the initial batch. Give me respectable precip and temps near 32-33 degrees as the sun is going down and I’ll take my chances

That’s my line of thinking. Now, I’m not talking hundreds of miles or anything. Not enough of a difference to give places west of Baltimore and DC a bunch of snow magically. but I am talking about enough of a difference to potentially place the 95 corridor and places just east firmly inside the western flank of the main precip shield. I may be completely off base here. So red / met green tags feel free to interject. But how the low behaves on the 12k NAM off Hatterus seems a bit sus to me.

We still love ya all the same.

This is exactly what I mean. How can this be correct? It looks like it attempts to correct itself, despite no mechanism present to push the storm WNW like that. That’s an odd track, no doubt. Looking at 500 and 700, it seems like the storm (and associated precip shield) should be further west when it gets going initially off the NC coastline.

Is it possible that models are popping the coastal a bit too east versus where they should be? While it’s hard for me to believe all models are making the same mistake, something seems off. Normally you’d look at 500 and 700 to get a good idea of where the MSLP should pop. The coastal should generally form and track along the baroclinic zone, not on top of convection. NAM isn’t the only model to do it either honestly, the only reason I mention this is because I read through some research on the “baroclinic zone and its affect on east coast winter cyclones” over the last few days after seeing a few METS use the term on twitter. guess we’ll find out soon enough https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249620653_The_Effect_of_Gulf_Stream-induced_Baroclinicity_on_US_East_Coast_Winter_Cyclones

Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend.

You’re likely correct. However… it wouldn’t be the first storm this year to end up more amped / west of what was modeled 36 hours out. Flip side, it is also a more complex and different setup than the previous storms were, so there’s no guarantee things shift NW either (no blocking) IDK man. When I see a rapidly deepening coastal low and plenty of cold air around with models flirting 8/9/12” snows just east of the bay 36 hours out… knowing the tendency for models to shift NW slowly but steadily until game time, my hopes aren’t dead for the 95 crew. Frederick, Winchester and WV? Yeah. Way too far west for coastal surprises. But DCA and especially BWI are still in the game. Windows closing very quickly though.

50 or so miles further west and the 12K NAM and would have dumped 8+ along 95 instead of 3. Likely 6+ on the Canadian as well. To say we know for sure what’s coming just isn’t accurate. Yeah, Baltimore and dc aren’t seeing a foot, but when VERY minor changes are the difference between 2-3” and 8-9”, that’s uncertainty. Sure, it’s much more likely than not we get either fringed or whiff, but it’s not a certainty at this point with so much volatility happening run to run; with the heavy stuff sliding JUST east of the bay. Especially not with 36 hours left before game time. Bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, down 3… will we win? Doubtful... but it sure as sh*t still happens from time to time when the stars align just right.

Wouldn’t be the first time we saw big changes inside 48 hours this winter. January 3rd looked fairly lost until 48hr out. The storm after that looked good for us pretty much all week long, went way west in the final 48hr and still ended up tracking west of what was progged hours before the storm hit. This storm could also end up even worse than what’s being modeled (energy’s left behind, late / weak phase, etc) Def. not expecting some magical massive shift that gives us all a foot, but I also wont completely rule out a 3-6” storm along 95 either given the clear lack of consensus among models in such a complex setup. Long shot or not.

Agree 100%. Good forecast given the spread on models and I like the honesty in the uncertainty of the forecast. We may have a shot at a few game-time surprises if the storm ends up being just a bit more amped / west of what’s being modeled currently. As you said earlier, very small shifts in any of the numerous variables at play could end up shaking things up (for the better or worse) It’s not out of the realm of possibility that we won’t know it’s coming until it occurs in real time (earlier phase, sharper trough, better banding to the NW, etc) . Wouldn’t be the first time a storm ended up tracking further west than models showed just before game time (the storm 1-2 weeks ago ended up further inland than we expected) We certainly won’t see the storm magically shift 150 west, but even 50-75 miles could make a sizable difference for places like DC and BAL

Today I think

2/5 - 2/11 - big window of interest. GFS depicts an active jet with numerous shortwaves - 1 or 2 try to blow up off the coast. Shows the possibility for winter weather on the 5th, 9th, and 11th.

Could be worse

OKX is expecting a sharp cutoff and they are way further north and east of us. Lived in the NYC suburbs for 25+ years. Love the Mets over at OKX. They typically do a great job forecasting these types of setups. Discussed this the other day a bit. With Miller b’s, my folks area typically sees either: 1) 3-6” (east tracking Miller b w/ little to no blocking) while LI to cape cod get 12+ 2) 6-12”+ and Long Island gets 4-8+ with mixing or rain in the Hamptons (coastal hugger with blocking. Can see 12-24+ in a slow mover) They are going with option 1 for obvious reasons. Fujny enough, the 5.5” shown on the map for the town new city (NW of NYC) is my hometown. One thing is for sure, I’m not going to chase 5.5”. I suspect we’ll begin to see models converge in the coming few runs as they get a handle on what’s going on out west in real time. Still a good amount of differences among models.

Eastern shore lost a solid 0.4+ of qpf on this run. Gonna be tough watching heavy snow on the radar east of the bay, whether it’s 6” or 12+ Think I’ve made my decision on where I’ll be staying for this one