jayyy

Down to 26 here. Man, that UHI is no joke huh? EDIT: it’s actually snowing up this way. Radar confirms snow shower activity in N MD and some pockets of light to moderate snow in PA near highway 22

Nice to see short term / meso models all nudging West as we get closer to game time. Gfs as well, although not as pronounced. It has definitely been interesting to see so many changes from run to run - especially with no current low pressure center to track. Typically there is some semblance of a storm formed 24 hours out for models to track. A typical Miller b would at least have a primary wave to track across the country before the secondary coastal low forms and takes over. This time around, each model is trying to analyze the environment in which a coastal low will form off the Atlantic and the h5 setup leading up to that moment - resulting in a decent amount of variation among models when it comes to surface output despite being < 24 hours out from game time. Interested to watch this all unfold in real time, no matter how it shakes out.

Blizzard warnings issued from coastal DE to NE NJ over to Nantucket and Boston

At least what were rooting for — a slightly further west track than what’s being modeled - is a fairly common occurrence. Better digging out west, a slightly earlier phase, the trough a bit sharper, etc. in order to keep the storm relatively close to the coast despite a lack of blocking. The problem is the setup. The lack of any semblance of blocking is the thing leaving me pretty skeptical, but I guess we’ll see if there’s any surprises in store come tonight.

Too bad the 32k and 3k nam don’t agree. They are still further E

6z, yes. It’s the 12K run.

2.5” qpf for Nantucket. 2” from ocean city all the way up the coastline to LI. Obviously overdone, but dayum.

Total QPF. Sadly, it’s the NAM

12k nam has snow from hr 16 through 33 for Baltimore Man, if this thing tracks just a hair further NW than the NAM depicts, 6” certainly isn’t out of the question for the bal metro

trough out west looks pretty good

Wanted to see how things shook out yesterday before making my decision. I finally found my landing spot for this one. Appears that my folks are going to be just a bit too far NW in the lower Hudson valley to truly get the goods. Models drop a respectable 5-10+” in their area. There’s a watch up from OKX for 5-7” (totals increase rapidly as you head east) My cousin Ellen lives right next to Deal Lake in north Asbury Park. Just got the OK to crash there until Sunday morning Would have definitely preferred a trip to her brother’s house in Suffolk county (Long Island), but E NJ should suffice! I hope this mofo of a storm defies the odds and overperforms here in the DMV (especially near 95. In particular Baltimore where I think there’s a slightly better shot of seeing upside from the coastal than DC. Part 1 has certainly trended better over the past 24 hours as well) but this weenie is definitely road trippin’ for this one! First time I’ve done so in several years.

Purples continue to slowly creep west 10–20-30 miles with each passing run. Short term models like the ARW, Herpdederpte, and sref have all trended a touch wetter as we go along

Yep! A ton of new euro stuff, new maps, etc. Love the upgrades so far

December 2000 started as an Alberta clipper. Laid down a swath of 3-6” from the dakotas through Minnesota and the Midwest. It weakened as it hit the Ohio valley before transferring its energy to a new low off the coast of NC. 10-20” totals were common in E NJ and the immediate NYC metro with a 20-30” jackpot zone from NE NJ through the Hudson valley and into the Catskills. Boston only saw 4”. Dry air ate up their storm as the low sat just south of LI There was a very sharp cutoff. 10-20” In central NJ, 4-8” in Philly and Delaware, 0” in Baltimore

Last global run I’ll be checking. From here on out it’s Meso models, WV, pressure maps, and then radar for me.

If models weren’t showing LI over to SNE seeing multiple feet from this, we’d probably be talking about the actual storm lol 2-4” for many with a chance - albeit small - at more near the metros (with no mixing issues) is still pretty solid. Especially considering it’s January in a niña winter — a month many were writing off throughout most of December. We’ve tracked a solid 5/6 events, most of which produced at least some snow. Could have been an epic month had a few things gone our way, but it certainly beat expectations. Models have another few threats for us to track between now and Valentine’s Day too

The Bullet train over Japan is pretty dope

Need that trough to diggity, and back that coastal up!

2/25/10, 12/26/10, 1/26/11: 20” a piece Those are the biggies that come to mind from the 2010s. Of course Jan 2016 was epic there too (27.5) Just not 40”+ epic

Agree. Amazing sight. Grew up 30mi NW of NYC. I was downtown at my aunt’s apartment during the blizzard of 06. Seeing over 2 feet of snow in Central Park is something I’ll never forget.

Yeeep. My cousins live by stony brook. North shore. They are going to get smiggidy-smoked

Wish my cousins out on Long Island were home. I’d absolutely crash there this weekend if I could

It sounds so easy when you say it like that lol

Just a few small changes right? haha

Think I’m going to make the trip up tomorrow AM