jayyy

We take! And would you look at that, it all spawns from a simpler setup than we had in December too. Never fails. .

Most of the events we see come from workable looks and not epic looks, tbh. Epic setups at 500 (PNA NAO AO EPO, etc) leaves NYC buried more often than us. Our area seems to like setups that produce sneaky events - overperforming on WAA, clippers that slow down and bomb out, etc. Give me a sneaky low riding along a cold front that just passed south of us a day or two earlier over trying to thread the needle on a Miller B or having to bank on enough ridging out west to allow a storm to bomb out in the right spot. Idk why, but we seem to do best when we least expect it. Our latitude likes simple. Give me some help in the pacific and a high up north and I’ll gladly roll the dice.

Jeez, this thread went down the shitter. Let’s move the back and forth about average snowfall and global warming elsewhere please. There is a banter and panic room thread. Please use it if you’re going to going into defcon mode 7 days into winter. There is zero evidence that the days of seeing solid winters in the MA is over. The mid Atlantic to northeast had a pretty epic run from the mid 90s into the early 2000s and again from 2010-2015, minus a handful of truly crummy winters. To all of a sudden say the “long term trends are alarming” isn’t a sincere analysis based on fact. It’s mainly based on feelings about a lackluster past 6ish years. And even that depends on location. Northern MD has actually fared pretty well during some of those winters. Does it suck that DC didn’t get in on the fun? Of course it does. But that’s the nature of living in a marginal climate where your average snowfall for any given season is roughly 20”. Sometimes you’re going to have an extended period of bad luck / outcomes when a degree or two and 50 miles makes all of the difference. Meanwhile, Buffalo is at 100” for the winter and it’s December 27th. The weather is unpredictable like that. Where I’m from in the lower Hudson valley had an awesome stretch of above average seasons (snowfall) from 2000-2015, minus a few duds, with a good number of the past century’s top KUs occurring in that timeframe. We can’t honestly look at the past 20 or so winters and say “welp, guess we’re screwed forever”. That’s nonsense. Can’t wait to flip back to +ENSO state and to get our mod. Niño so this crapola about it never snowing again can finally stop.

Before the #reload ?! [emoji23][emoji23] .

Shoutout to @Cape for all of the mid to long term ensemble analysis! If we do get snow by the 10th, it’s because this gent willed it into existence. .

Would have been a bad place to stay for sure. When there are SW winds forecasted, staying in between downtown Buffalo and the airport is the best place to be. WNW winds aloft is more ideal for orchard park / west Seneca areas. That’s the norm, so they tend to see more LES throughout the winter over areas NE of the lake (downtown up to Niagara falls) but when the SW fetch DOES line up, downtown Buffalo and 15-20 miles north gets crushed due to an elongated fetch over Erie. SW winds happen less often, but they produce the heaviest rates. I lived up there during the “October storm”. Very similar setup. Unreal event to witness.

Not a huge ask. But we honestly don’t even need all of that to see a solid snowfall or to have an above average winter. The problem for us the past few years is that pretty much every single setup has been a wild game of chess which requires threading the needle— phases, TPV splits, perfect ridging, Miller B’s, etc. The MidAtlantic doesn’t do complicated well. How many fails do we need to experience for folks to understand this? If ONE piece of the puzzle doesn’t evolve exactly as needed, it’s over for 90+% of the CWA. Storms either cut west or come together too late for our latitude, and weenies are left heartbroken because a few runs 7-10 days out showed flush hits. All we really need in these parts is the Bob Chill setup: An entrenched cold dome with energy sliding W to E (even NW to SE) underneath us. Some of our best wintry periods in the past 10-20 years have come from simple setups during peak climo (late Jan thru late feb) Give us a nice cold dome (preferably bleeding down from north of here — Quebec for instance - not the Midwest) and an active jet that brings energy from the west coast to the Delmarva, and let’s roll the dice. Snowmaggedon in feb 2010 is an easy example. It evolved from a pretty simple pattern. Pt 1 evolved from energy that moved from Baja CA to Delmarva which overran a fresh cold airmass, and part 2 evolved from a clipper that intensified off the coast. All made possible by an entrenched cold air mass and a jet that pushed storms just south of here. I’d take the simple BCP (bob chill pattern) over the pattern we just had any day of the week. We just had what many would call the “ideal setup” -NAO/AO, +PNA, -EPO and it resulted in nothing more than snow tv for a few hours for most of the sub. Too many moving parts - so we need a near perfect evolution at 500/H5 for areawide snowfalls to materialize. That setup is typically great for NYC to BOS, not DC to PHL. It’s pretty clear that marginal events go our way less often nowadays - whether its a result of GW or not is anyone’s guess. Because of this, we don’t really want complicated. Complicated typically means marginal. Keep it simple, and snow will come in due time. I’d rather rack up several easy 3-6/4-8” type storms from a simple pattern to reach or exceed climo than try to bank on seeing a KU to save winter because we’re attempting to thread the needle for 3 straight months. There’s a reason we do well and over-perform during simple overrunning (WAA) events and fail most of the time when we expect a big storm to evolve from a ton of moving pieces — our latitude prefers simple.

I’d take P27 at this point honestly if it meant something would materialize for majority of folks! A few inches would make anyone happy after a big dry spell (insert joke here)

Exactly! I lived through a few blizzard warnings in the lower Hudson valley that called for 1-3 feet PLUS the strong winds (typically in the 35-40mph range) from some of the epic nor’easters of the 90s and early 2000s, but certainly never 4-5 feet and 70 mph wind gusts. Down here in the MA, we tend to get either WSW’s for heavy snow accumulations, or blizzard warnings for the wind but rarely do we see BWs for both the winds AND heavy snow accumulation - and def. nowhere near that magnitude of either.

4 degrees with a -16 real feel. Unreal. .

My buddy has lived there his entire life and said to me quote, I have never seen it snow this hard in 42 years. Their blizzard warning has been upped to 4-5 feet for downtown and the immediate suburbs .

Traced! At least it’s not 0.0” [emoji41] .

Unreal lake effect coming off Erie right now with lake shore flooding. What a scene. My buddy just sent me a video from his house in Cheektowaga NY. Can’t see at all out his windows. 3” per hour rates with winds near 50mph. 2-3 feet of snow PLUS this bitter cold and wind is as wintry as it gets. .

My friend near Saratoga springs NY, north of Albany, was at 54 less than an hour ago while it’s 10 here in union bridge. What a weird front .

Couldn’t disagree more considering it’s an airmass that’s coming in before Christmas. Not in late January. It’s unimpressive in terms of the airmass sticking around, but the temp drop and winds are legit. DCA could set a Christmas low record. That’s noteworthy in its own right. The fact that it’s 22 here and 45 where my parents live in the lower Hudson valley in NY is pretty rad. .

My power just went out for about 10 minutes. The winds are whipping up this way!

Gotta love HCPSS closing tomorrow! .

Show us young Jedi .

I’d take 2” from a short duration pummeling and be happy. #ThingsSheDidntSay .

Wouldn’t be the mid Atlantic without having a flood watch hoisted as the rest of the country is under a winter weather alert of some kind. Hoping to squeeze out an inch or two up this way before we head into the freezer for 36 hours. Sucks that that is “best case” scenario, but it is December in the mid Atlantic. Snow is allergic to the Delmarva in December. .

Ahh, yes, the day after tomorrow analog. Never fails [emoji23] .

Probably the model I’m looking at least at this range when trying to analyze something as specific as timing of a cold front / changeover. Can’t discount it entirely of course, but this is where high res models *should* have a better grasp on details versus the euro. .

#FROPA’D [emoji23] .

Not really. We rarely see December snow anymore, especially significant snow. It’s not about the amount of daylight. It’s about the cold air masses and being in the heart of winter. Late January into February is our climo wheelhouse. Especially for a MECS/SECS/HECS

This is what “I don’t know what the fuck is going to happen” looks like in a visual representation. That low pressure spread is ridonculous!