jayyy

Ensemble mean* and the first threat is in the D5 window, Señor Deb. Really hope you get some snow soon man. You need it. .

Very much so. Not typically one for clown maps, but it shows a foot plus for my area and points WNW - which I’ll round down to a solid 4-8” threat if I’m being responsibly conservative. The window is just opening, so there’s plenty of room to get places like Western HOCO, western MOCO and northern Baltimore county in on the action with continued improvements. I’d be lying if I said I see wave 1 trending to a mostly snow solution for the 95 metro corridor. It’d have to take a helluva track, and even then, we’re talking about a pretty shitty airmass preceding it - temps in the mid 40s all week - and not much cold air to draw in from the north with a lack of snowpack anywhere within a 200+ mile radius of here. If this exact storm evolution occurred with a potential wave 2 (after an initial wave dragged the boundary south and laid down snow cover to the NW) I could see the pathway for the immediate metros. Certainly a long way away from a final solution, but you can’t fully discount the euro at D5. My interest = on the rise. My skepticism remains fairly high, however. Especially with this first wave. There’s a lot of timing that needs to go right here. Amplify / phase too early and our levels get scorched by a strong southerly component. Amplify too late and it’s a strung out mess. However… we’re due and all that, so maybe we can thread that needle as far as the NS and SS are concerned. Certainly seen crazier things happen. .

P21 would be a shutter-upper. .

Very curious to see what some of the OP runs show at 00z tonight, mainly the euro. We are beginning to enter the OP euro’s wheelhouse (D5ish) for Monday. Going to be the hardest wave to cash in on, but there’s a chance the northern crew finally sees a respectable event if current trends toward a coastal solution hold. As PSU said, the following 2 waves have a much better shot at producing snow - especially for the metros and nearby suburbs - as the airmass gets better with each passing wave. There is a *chance* that the northern crew could cash in on all 3 waves in some way shape or form. I feel pretty decent about our chances to get something out of 2 out of the 3. If the move toward a coastal for wave 1 continues over the next 48 hours, my interest in it will certainly increase. I’m definitely most intrigued by waves 2 and 3. Besides having more cold air to tap into and there being snowpack to the NW from wave 1, they also have the best shot at slowing down and blowing up along the coast. If wave 1 ends up being a coastal wave like many ensembles are now trending toward and blows up to our NE, that has implications in dragging the boundary further south - which gives us a much better shot for the subsequent 2 waves. Proper spacing between waves and a good eventual track for wave 1 - even if it’s a slop fest as it rolls through here, could provide us the Atlantic side help we’ve so desperately needed. If wave 1 ends up blowing up somewhere near SE Canada, wave 2 and 3 could be cash ins. If wave 1 acts as a mechanism to slow things down a bit and not allow the cold air to scour out so quickly, we’re in business. Still a long way to go, but it feels good to at least be tracking the 5+ day window and not the 10-14+ day window. .

Storm #2 was the bigger storm for my area being up near NYC. Def one of my favorite storms from my time up in NY, alongside the 96 blizzard and PD 1&2. We all remember the 2/5 and 2/9 back to back storms, but many forget that we actually got hit by 3 nor’easters within a 15 day window and 4 for the season. EPIC winter. 2000-2010 was an incredible decade for the DC - BOS corridor. .

Gotta love seeing all of that flattening and confluence in New England popping up on ensembles the last few days. Seen a pretty epic shift in our direction over the past 48 hours. As PSU said, show me that same look at 0z Friday (Thursday night’s runs) and my interest will skyrocket. .

Not actually true. 2/9/10 (storm #2 of snowmaggedon) was an Alberta clipper which reintensified off the NJ coast. But who’s counting [emoji23] I very much miss the days of Alberta clippers. We used to get a solid amount of snow each year from them in the lower Hudson valley in NY. Each season, you’d usually see one or two blow up off the jersey / LI coast. Many would jackpot eastern Long Island to cape cod, but every so often we’d get a solid 4-8” jack just north of NYC if it bombed out in time.

Which clown cares more about digital snow than real snow? [emoji23] or gets completely deflated by a clown map printed by an OP model 9 days out? We REALLY need some snow out of this next window to bring the sanity back to this forum. It’s depressing AF in here. Glad to see models converging on the idea of a Bob Chill setup for the final week of January. Been saying this all winter long - it’s our best hope to see snow. Overrunning patterns are going to work out more often than banking on 8 variables to break our way. Cold air dome + an active jet out of the SW riding waves underneath us = key to success. If we can get some blocking to slow things down, perhaps we see one of these storms blow up along the coast.

I’m actually pretty intrigued by the 23rd potential for my latitude. I know the 95 and metro crew isn’t going to be thrilled, but the northern crew definitely has a shot at some snow during that appetizer storm. .

Perfect spot to be 9 days out honestly? .

Been saying this all winter long. We’re not going to win out 9/10 times with complicated setups. There’s just been so much working against us in the longwave pattern. We need a window where the PAC chills out (our advertised -EPO) which would in turn relax the constant W-E flow which keeps eroding every cold air mass we get. This would in turn allow the boundary to get pulled south and for us to score a win or two with an active jet. Models seem to be converging on the idea of us seeing a period where we have a relaxed PAC, a cold air source, and an active southern jet. If these all line up, we could see a few light to moderate events from storms riding the boundary south of us. IF we can also get a -NAO, as CAPE pointed out, that’s how we potentially get a more significant snowstorm out of this. .

Decent amount of agreement among models regarding there being snow chances in the window from the 23rd thru end of the month. Nice to see the potential within 7 days, instead of 10-14+ Could see a scenario where wave 1 (mostly rain) drags the boundary south, creating snow cover to our NW, with a possible second wave tracking shortly behind it with a fresh airmass to tap into. Especially if wave 1 acts as a quasi-50/50 to slow things down with proper spacing between waves. The expected -EPO and resulting relaxation of the hostile PAC could be the key ingredient we need to finally see a legit chance at snow as we’d finally get a small break from the very progressive flow we’ve dealt with all winter. I’m also not entirely sold on this idea of a wall to wall torch in February either. I’m fairly positive we see a warm up early on, as the PAC has ultimately won out all season long, but you can also see how we could get a “reload” of the pattern if a few things were to break our way. It’d be an uphill battle though and the chance of failure would certainly be pretty high leading in, as we’d have to bank on a mixture of good timing and some luck to make it work. This winter has been ROUGH, but a decent second half would go a long way toward bringing some sanity back to this board.

The ICON tries to make something happen with wave #2. Boundary doesn’t push far enough south on this run for most of us verbatim (mainly an interior special) but minute details this far out are pretty irrelevant. The chance is definitely there, but we’ll need a lot to go right to cash in.

??? .

Don’t think that’s true actually. .

Pics or it didn’t happen .

I’d take a giant ass trough parked over the EC for all of March with winter / spring air masses battling it out nearby. We’d likely get snow out of that. April is probably what you’re referring to, which is when we’ll be 10 degrees below average with above average rainfall. [emoji23] .

The pronouncement of the SER is going to waffle more than Ji over the next week and change on guidance. .

Agreed. Sure, it’s the worst period ever, but a given period has to hold that title. The fact that it’s happening now sucks, but that doesn’t mean that we’re stuck in this rut forever. It took 50 years for the worst period of all time to change from the 70s to the current period. To me, that has zero bearing on whether or not 2023-2040 will be a good or bad period from a historical standpoint and it doesn’t give us the WHY. If it was true that a historically bad period means we’re doomed forever, then 2000-2015 wouldn’t have been as epic as it was. I don’t see a cause and effect there. We won’t have a hostile pac, or AMO, or some of these other factors in place forever. We can’t make blanket predictions about the future based on what we’re seeing right now. The longwave pattern has been trash for the better part of 6 years. Sure, we’ve had periods of relief from a hostile PAC and some of these other shitty factors (NAO, AO, SER) but they’ve been short lived. A week or two of relief at a time isn’t going to cut it when we’re talking about SO MANY factors working against us. We need a prolonged period of change, otherwise we’re left needing to see everything go right to MAYBE squeeze an event or two out a favorable 500mb setup. When a -EPO, -NAO, +PNA forms, we don’t see an immediate effect. It doesn’t get cold and snowy the next day. It takes some time for these patterns to affect us downstream, and by the time it does, things are already beginning to falling apart. When it doesn’t pan out, we’re left waiting for another period of “relief” That’s no way to achieve a sustained change back toward the norm. Here’s to hoping this our last historically shitty winter for a while. This board needs an epic winter. .

Winter quite literally ends during the 3rd week of march, so yeah, it’s a winter month. Living in the lower Hudson valley in NY most of my life, we had plenty of late march into early April snows. Some of which stuck around for multiple days. When I was in Buffalo for college, I experienced a 18”snowfall during the last week of APRIL and it was just as wonderful as December snow. I guess it’s a mindset thing, but for me - snow is snow. Fuck rooting against it because of the date it falls on. .

Woke up to a beautiful scene during my travels for work here in upstate NY. WWA up for 3-5” locally I almost forgot what snow looked like for a moment. .

Keep the faith ladies. Have a pretty good feeling that we’ll be able to eek a win or two out of this upcoming pattern. My main concern is the duration of said pattern change. How long do we get the -EPO and some relief from the PAC onslaught? Do we get a couple of weeks? A few days? That’s my main concern. Any relief we’ve gotten from the PAC as of late has been very short lived. Hoping we can get at least 2-3 workable setups out of this. Nice to see the GEFS move toward the EPS / GEPS over the last couple of days and not the other way around. .

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I actually like the 25th. Storm #2 after #1 (likely) cuts west and (hopefully) provides us with a temporary 50/50 to push the boundary south. Another domino effect type storm, but that seems to be the best we can hope for right now with this threat. .

I actually don’t mind W/E overrunning type events. We tend to do well and even overperform with these types of setups. Give me a cold dome & some solid CAD with a trailing SLP coming from the Tennessee valley and I’ll gladly roll the dice. I cringe more when I hear the words phasing, redevelopment, ridge / trough axis, etc. That’s when you know we need things to be near perfect (particularly with a hostile PAC) The problem is that the PAC is not allowing any cold air to remain entrenched. There’s also virtually 0 snowpack to our N/NW to draw any cold air into the NW flank of storms that are otherwise taking nice tracks but still giving us cold rain. Generally speaking though, I don’t mind boundary setups. I just don’t like that being the only way we can score. .