jayyy
-
Posts
4,065 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by jayyy
-
384 hour clown map maaaay belong in the long range thread haha
-
CMC/Euro say 3-6” type storm GFS/Ukie say 8-12” type storm (both waves) Set my expectations at a 6” max accordingly
-
Ukie with the metros jackpot. Should pan out
-
Up in NY for my cousins wedding this weekend 34F and a watch up for 4-7”. Precisely why winter weddings are madness lol
-
Just messin’ with ya WF!
-
Isn’t 43 hours less than 2 days? lol I’m lost
-
The changes from run 1 to run 2 on that trend is wild. Seems like the gfs has arrived at a solution between those 2 extremes. Still 5 days out though
-
DC area lives in that realm of uncertainty for 90% of storms.
-
AKA moving toward the more realistic outcome. We all knew the gfs wouldn’t win a game of chicken with the euro. Hope you’d still be happy with 11” of snow lol
-
Love to see us on the northern edge of the pinks with heavy snow down to RIC. Too bad it’s the GFS. Would love to see the Euro get on board with the heavier totals too but I imagine it’ll come in with another 6” event (not that that’s bad)
-
10” would be meh for you between now and the 15th with the best chance for a big dog being the following week and beyond? 10” would be a fantastic appetizer for most leading into a more favorable pattern for a MECS+ afterward. The bar is crazy in here lol
-
This thread is a true emotional rollercoaster lol. If we manage a 3-6+ type storm in the LEAD UP to our better pattern from the 20th onward, that’s a huge win. People see one fantasy run with 35” on clown maps 200-300 hours out and for some reason set that as their bar. I’m just as excited for deep winter to return as the next weenie, but let’s be realistic. If we can manage two moderate events before things get truly favorable for a big dog, we should all be elated.
-
Given the lack of blocking at this point, I’d rather it be south of us 8 days out.
-
Feb 15 to march 15 we have a legit chance to see multiple biggies. If we strike out in that period, we can revisit the shoulda woulda coulda convo.
-
No it’s not. Cold ensos tend to be dry around these parts. To PSUs point, if we get a cold pattern in a Modoki niño with an active southern jet and barely hit climo, that’s a fail. If we can manage climo or above with a primarily northern stream driven pattern all winter, that’s certainly a win. Especially in our new base state. We lucked out big time twice in a niña pattern over the past nearly 3 decades. So the notion that we *should* see 14-15 level snowfall defies the overwhelming norm.
-
Who cares. These threats are 1-2 weeks away [emoji23] Are we actually living and dying by each run THIS far out?
-
Ensemble means look wild this far out. Two strong signals around the 12th and 16th. Let’s go!!!
-
On 1000 hour clown maps. May nudge a hair id say [emoji23]
-
Normally I’d say throw it out but.. it kinda nailed the last storm
-
Only 40 runs to go!
-
Obviously amounts are 100% irrelevant at range, but it’s nice to see major snow chances being depicted well to our south instead of models having us JUST north of the boundary. Gives us much more wiggle room.
-
I was being sarcastic for sure. Long way to go but there’s a clear trend on most ensembles
-
Yep. I lived in Lancaster county in the winter of 09. Just outside Manheim. Saw about 8.5” of snow in roughly 2 hours via thunder snow
-
Now we just have to see it hold for two weeks. Gonna be tough with that gnarly +NAO and -PNA correlation though…
-
Feb 15th to March 15th is gonna… as the youngens say… cook
