jayyy

Winter quite literally ends during the 3rd week of march, so yeah, it’s a winter month. Living in the lower Hudson valley in NY most of my life, we had plenty of late march into early April snows. Some of which stuck around for multiple days. When I was in Buffalo for college, I experienced a 18”snowfall during the last week of APRIL and it was just as wonderful as December snow. I guess it’s a mindset thing, but for me - snow is snow. Fuck rooting against it because of the date it falls on. .

Woke up to a beautiful scene during my travels for work here in upstate NY. WWA up for 3-5” locally I almost forgot what snow looked like for a moment. .

Keep the faith ladies. Have a pretty good feeling that we’ll be able to eek a win or two out of this upcoming pattern. My main concern is the duration of said pattern change. How long do we get the -EPO and some relief from the PAC onslaught? Do we get a couple of weeks? A few days? That’s my main concern. Any relief we’ve gotten from the PAC as of late has been very short lived. Hoping we can get at least 2-3 workable setups out of this. Nice to see the GEFS move toward the EPS / GEPS over the last couple of days and not the other way around. .

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I actually like the 25th. Storm #2 after #1 (likely) cuts west and (hopefully) provides us with a temporary 50/50 to push the boundary south. Another domino effect type storm, but that seems to be the best we can hope for right now with this threat. .

I actually don’t mind W/E overrunning type events. We tend to do well and even overperform with these types of setups. Give me a cold dome & some solid CAD with a trailing SLP coming from the Tennessee valley and I’ll gladly roll the dice. I cringe more when I hear the words phasing, redevelopment, ridge / trough axis, etc. That’s when you know we need things to be near perfect (particularly with a hostile PAC) The problem is that the PAC is not allowing any cold air to remain entrenched. There’s also virtually 0 snowpack to our N/NW to draw any cold air into the NW flank of storms that are otherwise taking nice tracks but still giving us cold rain. Generally speaking though, I don’t mind boundary setups. I just don’t like that being the only way we can score. .

They’re not meaningless, they just shouldn’t be relied upon. Ensembles have dozens of individual members - some of which show decent hits for some of these systems, which is why the mean / average shows a few inches. The problem is… we keep ending up verifying the snowless members of these ensembles. No model is meant to be fully leaned on, we know this. They are simply hypothetical outcomes and tools to use in conjunction with one another to assess the most probable outcome. If the GEFS mean shows 3”, but the EPS and CMC show 0”, it’s likely we end up at or near 0”. If the other models agree or show something similar, perhaps the GEFS mean is onto something. The issue is people find a model with a desirable outcome and hug it. They also don’t understand what a “mean” is or what ensembles are actually used for. .

It’s the GEFS, but yeah, desperate times mang. .

I like the 23-25th window for some potential wintry weather. At the moment it appears to be a back to back storm situation where we’re going to have to rely on the first storm (likely a cutter) to be a make-shift 50/50, which could in turn force the storm track south of us for storm #2 and keep enough cold air in place to make something happen. Another “we need the timing to be right” ordeal doesn’t sound great obviously, but it is our next “threat” nonetheless. .

EPS or bust .

That’s my take on it too. I don’t think we’ve lost the ability to get where we need to be. We’ve just seen an epically long period of the PAC overwhelming the living shit out of our climo. Can’t wait for this never ending niña to go away. .

Agreed. You’re definitely right about the TPV. When it displaced southeast in late December, we got some epic cold for 3 days and then it scoured out awfully quickly, which is of little help when we’re looking for snow. I’d much rather have it stay put and throw workable cold air our way (EPS) then overwhelm us and then scour out (GEFS) Being in the 30s with snow chances for a couple weeks sounds much better than a few days in the teens and being bone dry. .

Firm believer that the base state, and the resulting hostile PAC, is to blame for our woes. I don’t believe that we can’t do prolonged cold and snow in our parts anymore, but it is becoming quite clear that the PAC has a lot more influence than it used to. So long as it’s puking like a hungover college kid, we are sitting ducks tracking scraps via long range ensembles. We’ve primarily been dealing with niña conditions and an overwhelming PAC since 2016, outside of a few periods when it has “relaxed”. I do agree that if we can’t get more than a few days of relief from the PACs onslaught, it may be time to throw in the towel on tracking this season and pick back up next winter when it looks like we will finally be in a much more friendly longwave pattern. #modoki I’ll gladly enjoy a surprise snowfall or two if we can manage it in February, but it’s getting exhausting tracking these potential windows of PAC relief 14-21 days out, just to see them disappear as we get closer or only pan out for a few days at a time. .

The CFS has been pretty terrible though. If it were right in the 2-3 week range, we would have had an epic mid December into January. .

Lots of confluence between LR ensembles this go around. Obviously things can change, but we may finally get the pac relief we’ve so desperately needed .

The entire key to our snow issue. A prolonged base state (and therefor PAC ) issue. Simple as that really. Can’t get prolonged cold, entrenched 50/50s etc, when you’re dealing with an overpowering cross flow all the time. Once the pac gets beat down, it’s game time. .

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

YAWN

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Was that the OP? .

Never fails ^ - except the times when it does. .

This is the most insane clown map I’ve ever seen lmao. Clearly a stalled CCB band .

Sadly we’re like 3 days from Nam range [emoji23] .

Winchester to Union bridge death band babaaaay .

I like the boundary depicted here for our parts. Keep the coldest air to our NNW. We get shellacked with temps between 28-32F as multiple waves ride along the boundary ESE of our CWA. Hey, a dude can dream. .