Expecting about 2” up here with some help from elevation and colder temps. Same for PSUland mappyland and clskinsland. I’m sure local 3+“ reports will pop up, but I like a general 2” for our general tier.
Someone is going to see a very localized QPF max, as has been the trend all season (as Bob chill referred to above) Models have struggled to pin down that area all season long, but they appear to be honing in on the general area between CHO and Staunton this go around. We won’t know until game time.
The biggest question mark for me is the immediate metros (UHI areas) How do temps fare? Do they see heavy enough returns to overcome some of the temp issues that come with a marginal setup where precip and cold are in a foot race? Biggest upside and downside potential exists in this area IMO, especially DC.