jayyy

Agreed. Ensembles are way more important at this juncture anyway, which mostly show a workable setup. Glad that there will FINALLY be a snowpack in place in the mountains and points N/NW between now and next week, which we haven’t had most of the winter. Every bit helps. Let’s get some cold air nearby with a storm track to our south and the stars will align on one of these threats in due time.

Intensifying storm to our west… southerly flow… it was only a matter of time I’m afraid. .

Intensifying storm to our west… southerly flow… it was only a matter of time I’m afraid. .

SN+ Radar is juiced for NW zones. Let’s see how long we stay snow. .

34.5 and snow. Nice band moving through currently .

GEFS/GEPS around the 10th says the SER pumps to kingdom come. 540 line up to nearly Canada. Guess there’s some time for things to adjust but yeesh, we can’t get anything more than a 5 day window for snow these days and that window is looking progressively worse for the first week of February. Hopefully the mid to late month flip CAPE has been talking about is legit. .

Not concerned about exactly placement of digital blue at this range, but the Latest GFS tracks two consecutive storms south of us next week. Verbatim.. Wave 1 is rain and brings the boundary south enough to get us some snow out of wave 2. However, the biggest seasonal trend of underestimating the SER would very likely kill chance 2 also if this exact scenario were to play out. Wave 3? It’s an amped cutter. Obviously it’s an OP run, long range, and will change, but nothing about this run excites me. All I see are a ton of ways to fail.

At least this storm will create a snowpack to our NW for the threat next week.. [emoji2369] .

Over here waiting on the effects of the earths inner core not spinning anymore on our snow totals going forward [emoji23] .

Agreed! Very active storm track and cold air around to our NW with a building snowpack in places like PA NY and the Midwest. Wouldn’t take much to get something out of that pattern. We don’t need extravagant to get a workable pattern. Simple works best for us most of the time, especially during years where the SER is so dominant. .

Like so! Weaker wave meets cold air. Our levels don’t get torched and we get snow. This is what we need to kick off a potential window of wintry weather. Some snowpack and a storm to move the boundary south.

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Feels like I’m beating a dead horse at this point, but there’s a reason I’ve been hoping for this type of overrunning boundary pattern into a cold air dome. Yeah, we all want the KU, especially after a torturous last 24 months, but during a year where any semblance of amplification pumps the SER ridge up like a gym rat on roids and cuts storms to our west, I’d rather see weaker waves ride south of here and dump 2-4/3-6 than try to thread the needle with a stronger low approaching from the SW. It’s just not our year for strong Miller A’s and it’s pretty much never out year for Miller B’s given our latitude. Who knows, perhaps we get lucky with a blowup off the coast of VA with one of these weaker lows along the boundary. Let’s get some cold air in place and an active storm track to our south. The rest will sort itself out. I’m tired of praying we’re going to thread the needle because models 10-15 days out have a few runs where it works out that way, just to watch it fall apart in the 5-7 day range..

Meanwhile… in northern Texas and central Oklahoma…. [emoji849] .

Oklahoma City has a warning up for 3-6” of snow. We can’t spare an inch. This winters been rough man. NYC and BOS are also about to get the shaft on this next one.

I’m just going to stay in upstate NY at this point [emoji23] for fucks sake .

Such a beautiful area! I may or may not be contemplating staying until tomorrow. 6-12” watch up! .

Ended up with 7.5” in east Saratoga springs. Heading back home tomorrow. Hope to bring winter home to Maryland with me [emoji1696][emoji1696] .

Don’t worry, the 12z euro will probably reel you back in for a moment, just to pull the plug at 00z [emoji23] .

I’ll take your digital euro snow [emoji23] .

FAR better CAD signature there with snow into VA, instead of in SW PA. NAM alone on an island is suspect. NAM / Euro combo? Perhaps they are catching onto something. Gotta think it turns wet fair quickly with a low tracking that far west, but I’d gladly take a solid 2-3”+ inch front end thump. 0.25 - 0.4” of QPF falling as snow within a couple hour window in NW zones as depicted here would be fun to watch unfold. Euro at 60ish hours is right in its wheelhouse. If 12z & 00z tomorrow shows something similar and other models trend this way, then color me interested. Could just as easily be a hiccup run too. Watch the 6Z NAM paint something similar [emoji23] 6z seems to be when NAM spits out wild solutions.

The GFS tracks 4+ storms up the coast between 1/31 and the end of the run. All forming somewhere near VA and the Carolinas. Very active pattern coming up. Now we need that pesky cold air to have a legit press and be stubborn enough able to push back against these storms. Otherwise they all end up like today. IE: Taking nice offshore tracks with cold rain.

Is it true that 18z and 6z uses less data than 12z and 0z? Because those runs always seem to be most whacky with the craziest swings in output. .

33 / heavy snow in Saratoga Springs NY. WWA upgraded to a warning for 4-8”. Definitely glad I chased this one. My soul needed it. Hoping I can bring some good winter juju back with me to Maryland on Tuesday with a few models showing some glimmers of hope for Wednesday! Edit — beer is good.

Cold air source to our north with an active jet to our south…. Just in time for February 5th-10th. 2010 Redux anyone?! .