jayyy

Aye aye, Cap’n! .

I believe the 00z CMC did as well. A blend of this and the southern scrapers would be swell. ICON juices that wave up for sure Edit — yep, the 00z Canadian. Very similar outside of HP location

Feelings versus analysis .

It’s the icon, and it’s at range, but the low takes an unfavorable track, otherwise we likely get snow out of this. Plenty of time for adjustments. .

Exactly. It’s just snow. I apologize for the banter on my end. I just didn’t appreciate being called childish names and to f**k off for no reason. My town averages 22” of snow per year. His averages 21”. And I’m being yelled at as if I live in deep creek or at wisp. Was just trying to get some clarity on a comment that was made.

Oh for sure! The colder trend is definitely there. I’d take a 1-3” appetizer in a heartbeat. Some snowpack can only help our cause. I guess what I’m getting at is that the overall seasonal trend has been warmer / further north as we get closer and things already look marginal. Call it weather PTSD if you will [emoji23] .

Amen to that. .

The babiest of baby steps, but I’ll take it at range. Would much rather be hoping for a jog north than a jog south though given seasonal trends and the SERs inability to go away for more than a few days. .

As you should! Call it as you see it man. The signal isn’t great verbatim. No denying that. It’s a weak wave that mainly showing southern tracks, but we’ve got time to see this thing come north and at least get an areawide 1-3”/2-4” type deal to calm some nerves. .

Fringed to your north? It’s not like Virginia or the 95 corridor has scored and you haven’t via the fringe job. We just had a 40+” winter up this way in 2020. .

I totally get that and you’re just speaking to what you’re seeing - as you should. However, I’m not too worried just yet by what lower resolution ensembles are showing verbatim at range. They aren’t necessarily going to pick up on the specifics of a boundary wave at this range - IE: extent of how far north precip gets or the intensity of said precip. Plenty of time for things to change. If we get to D5 and OPs show no signal, I’ll move on. .

If we had a flush hit on the models at this range, we’d probably be saying there’s too much time for this to trend away and it’ll be snowing in PA and NY by the time we get to game time. Glad to see cold air around with snow to our south. That’s step one IMO. .

Oops. Not sure why that post doubled up. Editing it out. (Where’s delete on this dang app)

How many 7-10 day signals have panned out verbatim though? We’ve seen most storms end up going north of where they’ve been depicted at that range. Still in the game. Don’t need much of a change up top to get that heavy snow in VA up to these parts. We have a week to get that half inch+ precip blob to trend north. Not the worst place to be given seasonal trends.

I know it’s been rough the last several years around these parts (not for everyone - northern crew had a solid 2020), but you’ll have a great winter again. Hopefully sooner than later [emoji1696] .

I’m actually not mad about being on the northern fringe at D4ish. Could miss south but there’s time.

Weird. I didn’t know accumulating snow doesn’t count. [emoji23] .

You already lost that bet. It snowed here yesterday morning. Bi**h, pay me.

Not a horrible spread. Could be better of course, but nice to see some snow to our south on some of these members for a change! I’d rather see some suppression than a flush hit or the rain/snow line over us at this range.

Ok, now THIS is in range to pay attention to being around day 5 (1/31) with a second wave on its heels (2/2) The euro was obviously weenie porn for feb 5th, and an appetizer system (or two) to lay down snowpack around 1/31 would be ideal leading into that 2/2-2/5 window. Some models had a 1/31 threat some days back and lost it, but it appears the signal is returning. .

It’s ridiculous man. It’s 1/25, models can’t get anything right outside of D7-10 and waffle back and forth every 6 hours, yet people are like “welp… February and early March are a lost cause!” Perhaps our bad luck continues and the rest of the winter is a shutout, but let’s analyze as we go along and not fill this thread up with the doom and gloom talk 24/7. We have a place for that on this subforum. I know it sucks not getting snow, and yeah, it’s been bad before but “never quite this bad”, but I don’t fully buy that. It hasn’t been “quite this bad” since we began keeping records, and the periods that were awful during record keeping years were pretty damn close to being THIS bad. 6, even 10” of snow in any given direction when analyzing annual mean historic snowfall isn’t cause to jump off a bridge and say it’ll never snow again or say that we’ll never see a great winter again. That’s often the difference between hitting or missing on one nor’easter. Last year was also rough holistically, but like cape said… we could have just as easily seen a 25-30” winter along the 95 corridor with some very minor tweaks to any given setup. We actually had a sustained period of cold and snow chances, but many of them hit NW, NE, or E of 90%+ of this sub. We had a ton of very near misses. YES, let’s use this thread to analyze patterns and be brutally honest about what they mean for our weather, which as of late has typically meant no snow, but the incessant need to always say “we’re fucked” is speaking out of pure emotion. Let’s keep that talk in banter and the will it ever snow again thread. The doom and gloom is exhausting. I’m not talking about seeing an ensemble run and stating why a person thinks it means it’ll be hard to snow. That’s what this thread is for. I’m talking about the constant “it’s over” banter and talk of CC/AGW or how shitty the MA is for snow that follows that analysis. This thread thrives when we analyze and have good discussions about teleconnections, 500mb patterns, etc. Otherwise we end up having to make another new thread after 1,000 posts because it’s another train wreck. Apologies for the rant, but it’s frustrating trying to parse through all of the bullshit when you’re just trying to find useful analysis from members / METS in a thread that’s meant to be for analysis, not our feelings about lack of snow. I’m just as frustrated as the next guy about our luck the past 2 winters, but it’s the weather, and snow does still exist if peoples souls truly need to go see it. I took a long weekend to visit some buddies in upstate NY and saw a nice 7” snowstorm. It was refreshing. Just hoping February into early march brings some snow so we this forum can get back on track. I appreciate folks like Cape, Heisy, PSU, brooklynwx, and others who attempt to analyze what they’re seeing on models and keep this thread on the tracks.

There was no scenario where we had a sustained window of cold and snow chances coming. February was always progged to be a rollercoaster month 2/1-2/9ish, then we warm up. Should be more chances mid to late month, with warmth sandwiched in between. The nature of the beast in a progressive regime with no blocking. We have no pacific ridge and a +NAO. A -EPO alone was never bringing us a 2+ week period of cold and snow. The second half of Feb into early march may actually be our best chance at snow with señorita Niña finally fading to a more neutral state and the NAO forecasted to go negative (it’s been positive virtually the entire time since 12/15) If we get some blocking in place, perhaps we score a late season coup. Not holding my breath til I see it happen though. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml ^ ENSO synopsis: Feb - April niña fades to neutral

I’m just curious what the point of having a banter thread is when 90+% of it happens on our mid to long range analysis thread. .

This thread is an absolute fucking shitshow. [emoji23] .

PSU’s concerns are valid though. It’s been the same song and dance all winter. Ensembles look good around D15 while OP runs are all over the place. Things begin to cave around D7-10, ensembles included. Having no blocking in place to counteract a SER that refuses to go more than 3-5 days without flexing its muscles is troublesome. It’s hard not to be skeptical when models (ensembles included) don’t show a mechanism to counteract what’s been our Achilles heel all winter; a progressive flow and a flexing SER. We all hope you’re right. As pessimistic as PSU has been, he’s clearly rooting for a good outcome. But he’s been right about all of these threats that continue to fall apart - almost all for the same reason. .