jayyy

I know a lot of folks either focus on far NW areas or the immediate metro areas….but keep in mind that the area of best lift often occurs by the rain/snow line. Highly possible the jackpot ends up being somewhere between Winchester and Baltimore or DC. MoCo & HoCo could be in a prime position as far as being cold enough for snow and far enough SE for more intense precip. Fairly confident someone is going to successfully walk that tight rope and see 6-8 out of this.

FV3-Hires also gets it done.

WRF-ARW — add it to the list. Very similar outcome to other mesos

The @losetoa6 storm! We should be money for this one! Classic march setup for our latitude to cash in

At this point.. pretty much no major model shows MBY getting less than 4-6” in under 8 hours. I taketh.

Appreciate the inclusion in your personal 4-8” jack zone

Suspect we’ll be seeing WWAs in Baltimore and DC proper by 4 PM and WSW’s from Winchester to the Cotocins over though northern carroll county and northern Baltimore county if current looks hold or improve

Reeeeeally starting to like what I’m seeing for the corridor from MBY to yours. 4-6” looking likely.

HRRR NAM Euro RGEM - all on board. Probably the combination we want on our side at this juncture (sub 24 hours). Only “hold out” of importance is the GFS, which still paints a few inches over the entire sub forum tomorrow. Barring some wild swing back in the other direction at 18z and 00z, I’m definitely liking our chances here. NW folks should be getting excited, no doubt.

If I manage to get 4-6” of snow in 6ish hours with rapidly crashing temps and 30-40+mph winds out of this storm… a storm that looked dead 48 hours out… in march nonetheless.. that’d be a GREAT way to send winter off, no doubt.

Looking like a consensus around a solid 2-4” advisory event for the metros is building. Would like to see 12z and especially 18z continue this trend and it’s game on there IMO. Highly depends on rates once the transition occurs. For my area over to emmitsburg, Winchester, and on east to PSUland — this is shaping into a money march setup. Warnings looking likely for our tier by tonight.

HRRR RGEM NAM blend is a solid 6”+ storm here. I taketh. NWS is going to bust badly in Baltimore city if current trends hold.

3k nam 6Z - several hours of snow after the changeover

6z 12K NAM. Heavy snow in the bal dc metro corridor as it’s pouring rain in NYC and BOS. ps - where was this low positioning during the late January blizzard

HRR / Euro / RAP / CMC blend for $500 please honestly though… when do we begin to take this backend snow possibility seriously? I’d be elated at a backend 2-3” up this way.

It is indeed. You can see the warm pocket fairly rapidly making its way up into the Harrisburg metro. Appears folks near the MD PA border are seeing a burst of heavy snow before a quick switchover (makes sense with most intense precip usually near the rain/snow line) Emmitsburg just flipped back to rain and Gettysburg’s in the process of doing so now. My folks up in the nyc suburbs are all snow and have a SWS in place for 1-2” on grassy surfaces.

It’s changing back to mix / rain in northern MD as we speak. My son just reported heavy snow with rain mixing back in rapidly. Radar confirms

My sons reporting heavy snow just outside emmitsburg, but that it’s mixing back with rain again

Color me interested.

Nah. -2-4” of Snow in march doesn’t = 93 redux lol

Actually… 19 degrees in 6 hours is really not a huge deal. March, April, July. Doesn’t matter. It happens and happens pretty often. Especially up this way.

Curious to see if the NAMs hold suit at 00z and more importantly, @ 12z and 0z tomorrow. It is waaay more aggressive for Wednesday than other guidance

I think most guidance will ultimately trend colder over the next several days, but I’m still very skeptical we get much, if any, snow out of the advertised look at H5. Chaotic and progressive in nature, and it’s March. Color me skeptical for sure. Would love to be wrong but I’m going to keep my expectations very low and hopefully I receive a nice surprise come Saturday.

This comment deserves way more than one like. Nicely done. As it stands right now, I have no interest in the Wednesday event. Precip chasing marginal cold air after multiple days in the 70s? Non starter for me. Even up here in “snowy” Carroll county. Gonna need to head to buffalo for that one if you want to catch a few sloppy inches at best. The storm, if you can even call it that at this point, has continued to trend weaker. The QPF and precip intensity being advertised won’t get it done Saturday? That’s a bit of a different story. My interest is low to medium level for that timeframe. Doesn’t help that the GFS is the only model that is REALLY advertising such a quick advance of cold air (hmm.. where have we heard that before?) ahead of the storm and near perfect timing at h5. With the development of a coastal low and snow almost being entirely dependent on timing, phasing, etc… it’s not very comforting to only have the GFS honking. Good news is we are still a long way out so this is by no means set in stone. It’s hard to imagine us being able to pull this off in mid-March, when we couldn’t do it all winter long, but crazier things have certainly happened. Let’s see the euro and Canadian move toward the GFS in the coming days and then I’m in for the tracking

That’s the #2 ranked model right there!! Lock it in