jayyy

Only fitting that CAPEtown gets jacked as depicted for all of the hard work he’s done tracking this period. .

I’ll take it. 1-2” is better than nada .

doesn’t appear so .

Go Canada [emoji1063] .

Now I need to go look .

Beautiful home! .

From your experience, do ensembles or OPs tend to have a better handle on things in the D1-D5 range? I only ask because I wonder how using operating models in the very short term would impact those probabilities, if at all. .

It’s not like anything’s fallen apart that looked good from 10+ days out this season…. Oh wait [emoji23] .

Curious to see if GFS and Euro follow the seasonal trend and move things north over the next 48 hours. Still outside of NAMs

I’d take this run verbatim for your area over to time any day of the week - warning level snowfall and then some ice accretion on top, but I’m honestly rooting for everybody. Our chances are sparse as is, so it’d be nice to get as many people on board as possible (ALA moving that band east over the heart of the subforum) Probably a pipe dream, but I’m trying to be optimistic. .

That low gets to 970mb just NE of the benchmark with precip spanning from Maine to NC. Precip / temp details aside, that’s an impressive storm. If there was a high to the north to supply cold air and slow things down a bit… WOOF. It’s a quick mover, which limits its upside, but it packs a nice punch. .

Canadian also has a more robust wave and pushes precip way further north with a better placed High at the canadian border. .

euro pushes precip south of here .

RGEM is juiced and north .

It is interesting to see the GFS/Euro focus on the southern part of the area, while the ICON RGEM and Canadian focus things further north. Euro plops a HP in Ohio, which appears to push the wave south. I’m just as snow hungry as the next weenie, but being on the wrong side of a Euro/GFS vs. RGEM/Icon/CMC fight is probably not the place we want to be. NAM is a sheered out mess too. .

I’ll take what the RGEM is smoking for $20 please. .

06z GFS tries to being the 2/5 wave up the coast, but it skirts offshore too far south. .

0c down at the VA / NC border too. Plenty of cold air to work with with a 1037 high there. Come on baby, let’s reel one of these suckers in. Was hoping to cash in in some capacity on a couple of these waves, but it may be the final wave leading into a pattern shift which could produce our first legit areawide snowfall. Those are often the bigger waves too and we certainly aren’t foreign to pattern shift storms in these parts.

Oy vay [emoji88] .

28.5F. Crisp out there. This cold-dry / warm-wet pattern can shove it man. Hoping we cash in next week! Congrats to those finally getting some nice upslope in the mountains! Cam feeds looked awesome today. .

This formatted very odd on my phone. It’s all in a line. What ENSO state was 2010 Edit — nvm!

No worries man. It’s been a very frustrating past 6+ years all around. Sorry to hear you’ve got some personal stuff going on. Hope everything is alright. .

Looks really similar to me. Is it hanging back more energy? I’m looking on a mobile device too FYI so I may be missing something. .

It’s a forum. Meant for discussion. A discussion anyone is welcome to join in on, as long as they keep it civil and respectful. I’ll say it again. I sincerely apologize if you took what I said personally or as if I was “throwing it in your face”, but that was not my intention whatsoever. I’ve been here a long time and that’s not something I ever do. Sometimes I get lucky being further west, but my climo is nearly identical to yours. To me, it sounded like you made a very general statement. That’s all. If I misunderstood what you said, I apologize, but there’s no need to get so personal and attack me like you did. Let’s just keep it civil in here man. I’m done replying. It’s exhausting and I don’t want to piss off our awesome admin team.

Appreciate the thought you put into that. .