jayyy

Definitely a step back for the metros on the latest HRRR as far as precip totals after the changeover is concerned versus yesterdays runs. Not a huge difference up here in far N&W areas, but it’s a fairly sizable difference in Baltimore / DC from the naked eye. 00z HRDPS was similar to its previous runs. Gets the cold in there a bit faster than the HRRR and heavier returns hang back to allow some hours of very heavy snow around 14-17z with 5+“ totals near dc / bal proper …. We’re so close. We’ve got this.

The cold is there, @Ji

Can’t help but Iove that DC and Baltimore will likely fair better than NYC and Boston with this storm. In march nonetheless.

Latest HRDPS has almost all of us getting mauled between 14-17z

I approve. And euro is almost always drier than mesos right before game time. A blend of the euro NAM HRRR will do just fine

If 5-6” is drier, count me in.

Lmao right? Literally just happened.

It’s snowing in Pittsburgh and WV. Clearly not far away

Don’t think so. Why would they?

10” !? Uh. Yes please

Tornado watches on the southern flank, snow stretching from buffalo to Mississippi, and strong convection popping up off the coast in Virginia. Fuggin Smarch storms, baby!

Add it to the list of models printing 6” IMBY. Not sure I’ve ever seen so many models agree on me seeing WSW criteria while I have an advisory up. Oh well. It’s a good thing being under an advisory vs WSW vs blizzard warning means absolutely nothing as it pertains to the final outcome.

Definitely In line with ground truth and current OBS. Folks on Facebook and twitter down south are pretty much indicating a clean and quick transition over to heavy snow from rain. (Thunder snow reports as well) To me, likely means models like the NAM were overdoing the sleet aspect of this storm.

0z HRW WRF 2 (I know, not a great model blah blah) with roughly 6-8 hours of accumulating snow after the changeover depending on location. It and the HRRR have been extremely consistent all day

It was a watch until an hour ago

Wonder what occurred just over 6 years ago!

Here we go Here we go, what? The hi res FV3 uses the old GFS. Who cares if it stepped back a bit. It’s not a trend setter lol

Ground truth looks great so far. Evolution happening as expected. Perhaps a tad more robust than I expected at this juncture

Euro GFS NAM RAP HRRR HRDPS blend here is north of 6”. Sold. Go ahead. Keep my advisory up, LWX. We oddly (and obviously 100% coincidentally) tend to overperform when we have advisories hoisted during marginal events more often than we meet warning criteria during marginal events. I’ll take the advisory knowing we’ll likely exceed the upper end and could be upgraded mid storm. There’s something awesome about having your advisory upgraded mid storm with heavy paste falling

HERPDYDERP with a pretty decent cutoff. 6-8” north of 70 from carroll county and points WNW (with 10” lollies) and 1-3” near the metros along 95

Doubt that plays out as depicted, but that would surely suck for some. I personally dig this run for my area

You know it! looking like a classic setup for a #MoCoHoCoDeathBand

24 here. Based on OBS shared by my friends in central Ohio… it’s very much coming. They went from 60 to snow yesterday to this morning.

Huh? 0.5-1” for who? Lmao

I know a lot of folks either focus on far NW areas or the immediate metro areas….but keep in mind that the area of best lift often occurs by the rain/snow line. Highly possible the jackpot ends up being somewhere between Winchester and Baltimore or DC. MoCo & HoCo could be in a prime position as far as being cold enough for snow and far enough SE for more intense precip. Fairly confident someone is going to successfully walk that tight rope and see 6-8 out of this.