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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    A wise woman once said to enjoy it while you can!
  2. jayyy
    Sure was .
  3. jayyy
    Rapidly approaching nowcast time in tracking the actual wave and not models, outside of the HRRR or 3K NAM. Last second adjustments to get us an inch. Gotta love it. [emoji23] Someone just outside DC (cooler) to Columbia over to CAPE may get 2” out of this if all goes right. .
  4. jayyy
    Happening now! Light snow at 36 Edit - 35F
  5. jayyy
    Triple phaser or bust? .
  6. jayyy
    LOL, models this AM are terrible for 90+% of us. CAPEs area has the best shot at some snow as the wave hits the water and intensifies. Can’t even cash in on a few hours of snow. Yeesh. .
  7. jayyy
    Bingo .
  8. jayyy
    Helluva lot better than earlier today .
  9. jayyy
    Show me young Jedi .
  10. jayyy
    I’d argue that there are more hits on the GEFS than at 12z. The problem is that this can fail multiple ways. Temps, a poor track, or possible lack of moisture if energy gets eaten up by the Apps. Other models which show lackluster solutions have one or more of these scenarios playing out. Really hope we can thread the needle and at least get a wintry scene across the CWA .
  11. jayyy
    I assume he means because of the spread among ensemble members. They mostly show either a hit with a couple inches or zilch.
  12. jayyy
    Fixed. .
  13. jayyy
    There’s actually a decent # of members with pretty solid depictions on the GEFS. Issue is there are far too many strikeouts to balance the shit scale back to neutral.
  14. jayyy
    I think the creation of the “will it ever snow again” thread as a result of this epically shitty winter qualifies
  15. jayyy
    With the occasional dick joke.
  16. jayyy
    ensemble member 2 clearly will pan out. (The second member 2 at the bottom) NOT .
  17. jayyy
    No .
  18. jayyy
    RGEM 1-3/2-4 for many. VERBATIM, up to 5” in WV, with the second jackpot spanning from the DC ENE to CAPEtown and southern NJ. 2-3” in and around Baltimore. Some 4” totals just south of the city. Clearly the most juiced up model.
  19. jayyy
    The RGEM is so consistent. Really hope it scores a coup Bar set at 0.1” by NWS so we can’t be disappointed [emoji1787]
  20. jayyy
    RGEM has been insanely consistent, while other models keep waffling run to run, so I’m curious what its handling differently versus other models. Not saying it’s right.. especially being on an island with the ICON…but curious nonetheless. For you seasoned gurus in here, what leads to its better outcome for the area?
  21. jayyy
    RGEM / ICON say yes, GFS NAM Euro say no… what could go wrong [emoji23]
  22. jayyy
    First NAM run im paying attention to for wave 1 coming up here shortly. Would love to see it be near the RGEM .
  23. jayyy
    18z GFS was close initially and things slid south from here. Plenty of time for precip to bump north, but with this comes warmer temps - which are already dangerously borderline. .
  24. jayyy
    Creeping closer. P16 would make some folks happy for sure .
  25. jayyy
    It’s an oddly accurate model too .
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