jayyy

That’s 9 days out too. Yeah, I know, “it’ll likely fade as we approach” but no one cares to hear seventeen people say the same thing or that it’ll never snow again every time a possible threat pops up. And I don’t mean PSU, who gives us well thought out posts about WHY and the meteorology behind it, but all of the other banter.

Made this point the other day. I get it’s been a shitty winter but it’s annoying as shit to come in to LR thread to see analysis and all you see is “it’s the end of snow as we know it” banter. For fucks sake. We have multiple other threads for that. Thank you for continuing to analyze every day, as painful as it’s been. .

So was January 2016. It was 80 on Christmas and it was quite warm after too. You’re telling me you wouldn’t jump for joy if we scored a nice storm during a shit pattern?

It’s the first day of February. It didn’t barely avoid anything quite yet lol .

Fat flakes starting to fall. Mulch, car tops, and deck caving. Gotta love it. .

Precip in and around DC right now (SW of downtown) looks like it means business. .

Respectable returns overhead near DC and N VA.

Car tops caving [emoji23][emoji1787]

We’ve got snow folks!!!! Let’s get it. .

No sheer from the Apps yet. Game on. Bring that precip over here sucka

We’re supposed to get 1” of snow, and this looks meh? I’m confused. What exactly were your expectations for the radar given forecasted totals? The radar actually looks pretty good for a dusting to 1”

Bullshit lol. The days of KUs aren’t over, give me a break. .

So the radar looks both meh and juiced. Intereeeesting .

I’ll be in ellicott city at my brothers for this one. I have to be back at work at 4:30 AM and didn’t feel like driving all the way back to UB at 9PM tonight to have to turn around and leave at 3:30ish to head to work in Columbia as it’s snowing. Welcome to the area though!! I’ll laugh if MBY somehow ends up beating out EC despite guidance showing otherwise. Would be my luck [emoji1787]

Good point made above. Rain on and off all day should minimize the amount of virga seen from this. The atmosphere certainly aint dry as it’s currently shvitzing out there at 34 degrees. .

35/30 in ellicott city 34/26 in union bridge .

Hard to say the radar doesn’t look good. Certainly wetter than most models showed less than 24 hours ago. The precip shield appears to be moving ENE and not due east. All positive signs. I guess the ?? for me is how much does the shield get shredded as it passes over the mountains .

NAM EURO GFS show the possibility of up to 1-2” for many. Fucking book it. Time to nowcast. .

Hahaha of course it mini jacks my backyard .

I’m off work in Columbia at 9 tonight and have to be back at work at 4:30am, so it made more sense to stay at my brothers place tonight than to drive all the way back to union bridge and back just a few hours later. Kind of glad it worked out that way now that I think about it since he’s further south. Not often you say that but… it appears that’s the case this go around. Bring on the flizzard!

Models converging on a few hours of snow and the mood is so much better in here. All it takes is 1 inch….. (@ravensrule ) .

DP is 26 IMBY currently, so I’d say that’s probably accurate. Current obs: 36/26 with 70% humidity 30.20 inHg pressure .

It’s also showing hour 0.5 on HRRR versus the current radar. 30 min difference, so the systems a bit further east on the HRRR? Not [emoji817] on that though .

Agreed. It’s nearly identical. If anything, MAYBE a smidge more moisture than the radar shows but barely. Last run was also very close, but had a TINY bit less moisture than the radar was indicating. Perhaps a difference of virga? Not sure. But I’d call it pretty spot on overall. .

To the naked eye on my cell phone, the main driver of the differences between models / individual runs doesn’t seem to be track. All of the models show something pretty similar in that regard. The difference seems to be whether or not the low is more or less organized and whether the wave gets torn apart by the Apps. The solutions with a more organized wave have a more mature precip shield. Snow is definitely heavier and the extent of the precip shield is further north. CMC HRR ICON all look pretty decent for CMD and points S and E. The latest HRRR adjusted north with the precip shield, but the track itself remained pretty identical. 2-4 hours of heavy snow for the DC - BAL corridor per the HRRR would leave a lot of folks smiling - minor event or not. Would be really nice to see us come out on the winning side of a potential wave, even if it’s not a biggie. Loss after loss after loss when you’re tracking is just as depressing than the lack of snow itself. .