jayyy

I’d take 2” from a short duration pummeling and be happy. #ThingsSheDidntSay .

Wouldn’t be the mid Atlantic without having a flood watch hoisted as the rest of the country is under a winter weather alert of some kind. Hoping to squeeze out an inch or two up this way before we head into the freezer for 36 hours. Sucks that that is “best case” scenario, but it is December in the mid Atlantic. Snow is allergic to the Delmarva in December. .

Ahh, yes, the day after tomorrow analog. Never fails [emoji23] .

Probably the model I’m looking at least at this range when trying to analyze something as specific as timing of a cold front / changeover. Can’t discount it entirely of course, but this is where high res models *should* have a better grasp on details versus the euro. .

#FROPA’D [emoji23] .

Not really. We rarely see December snow anymore, especially significant snow. It’s not about the amount of daylight. It’s about the cold air masses and being in the heart of winter. Late January into February is our climo wheelhouse. Especially for a MECS/SECS/HECS

This is what “I don’t know what the fuck is going to happen” looks like in a visual representation. That low pressure spread is ridonculous!

Solid jump in the GEFS’s direction by the EPS .

We are a week away, which is in the GEFS’s wheelhouse. That’s all we really need to know for now. It’s consistency, to me, is encouraging. The surface depiction will change 100 more times between now and showtime on the operational. I know folks are salivating for snow, especially a significant event, but I really wish some peeps would chill out on the run to run bridge jumping from this far out. There were two “pattern wasted” and “winters over” posts already this morning and it’s only 8 AM [emoji23] Everyone needs to read Bob’s comment above. Most storms with complex evolutions end up sneaking up on us around the D3-D5 range on operational models. That’s the simple truth. And the reason truly is simple. They are not really capable of working out so much complex data from a week or more out. They are simply spitting out wide ranges of solutions - which is why there’s almost always everything from a massive blizzard to complete fails on any given run. There are just SO. MANY. MOVING. PIECES. in a complicated setup like this. Some folks thinking OP models can nail minute details from a week out which make all the difference between a 2-4” and 6-12” type storm are literally begging for a letdown. The only storms that really get sniffed out early, especially by all guidance, are simple / consolidated southern stream events - such as 01/2016. There’s not much to work out there. A favorable environment (usually around the Gulf) for low development and an entrenched dome of cold air? Check. Much more simple than worrying about splitting TPVs which have to round the base of a 50/50 block, stream phases, Miller b’s with coastal low redevelopment, etc. The sooner folks learn these truths, the less heartache they’ll feel. Tracking these storms 4 times a day for 7-10 days without understanding what bob mentioned above is quite literally BEGGING for a letdown.

Weren’t you just bridge jumping 3 comments ago? .

P21 please and thank you .

Solid improvements at 500MB on the 00z gfs versus the 18z and thus far the 0z NAM ICON CMC, while not where the GFS is whatsoever, all trended in its direction @ 500mb instead of the opposite way. Some more than others. If this was D3 or D4 I’d be pretty worried, but we still have a ton of time left for models to iron out what’s going to transpire with the TPV. The important part (as far as this storms evolution is concerned) is entering the GFS’s wheelhouse. And while we are WAY too far out to examine the end result on the NAM, we are entering the range in which it should begin to hone in on what’s going to happen out near Alaska as well. If it looks like the GFS @ 500mb at 00z tomorrow, that’s a great sign of things to come as we get closer. The fact that it looks much more like the GFS through 60 hours than the CMC can only be viewed as a positive. Have a feeling 0z tomorrow is when we start to see models eliminate the more extreme solutions and zero in on a tighter solution envelop. Perhaps it’s not a KU, but I’d sure as shit take a solid 3-6/4-8” area wide storm on Christmas eve - especially with arctic air and another threat - albeit smaller - right on its heels. .

I know the gfs is on an island right now, but it’s the new King, and to see the GFS OP and GEFS in line on a key feature 54ish hours out is enough for me to still feel there’s a decent chance it’s right. The euro’s wheelhouse is more in the mid range which is where it showed a similar evolution to what the GFS is currently showing in regards to how it handled the energy out west. If the euro is indeed doing its usual song and dance of hanging back too much energy out west in the 54-84 hour range, then it’s plausible that the result downstream at D7 (the final evolution of the storm) is incorrect. Of course, the GFS could end up being wrong and could eventually cave to the other “camp” in the coming 2-3 days, but if we’re strictly going off performance in the 48-84h range, I’d take the GFS over the Euro given it’s success over the past year since it was upgraded. The GFS’s consistency at 5h & 500mb from run to run has been pretty remarkable, and having support from its ensemble only bolsters it’s credibility IMO Anything’s possible, so we take this a day at a time. If the 00z gfs and tomorrows 12z gfs continue its current look, I have a feeling other models play catch-up in due time. .

Strictly speaking of those who expect a KU every storm. Not a ton of folks fall in this category, but there are enough. .

Exactly. That’s my only point. Gotta know your climo. Of course we all want big snowstorms all the time, but there’s a big difference between wishing and the reality of local climo. Even up here in the “highlands” where we get a decent amount more snow than the i95 corridor, I don’t expect to see lower Hudson valley to interior northeast type snowfall. That’s just not the reality of where I live is all. .

They’re living in the wrong area if they only want big snowstorms. .

It doesn’t look like it might not happen though? It is WAY premature to be saying that man. The 6z gfs showed upwards of a foot of snow over the course of a few days in your area close to I-95…. in the third week of December. The GEFS, which tends to be a bit too progressive, shows a low off the coast with lots of cold air to work with. Not exactly a terrible outcome. Living and dying with the exact surface details of each run a week plus out is a fools errand. Besides the Jan 2016 blizzard, which was impressively sniffed out by models over a week out and wavered very little in the week leading up the storm, how many significant snowstorms can you remember over the past 10-20 years where models showed a big snowstorm 8 days out and they remained that way the entire way leading up to the event? That rarely ever happens. Nothings changed since the model runs that showed 12” two days ago. We have a potentially good to great 500mb setup and plenty of cold air to work with, and every single model is signaling a storm in the 23rd-25th timeframe. That’s all that matters right now. We’ll iron out the details later. .

A combined 1-2 feet of snow from Maryland into Virginia from two storms while NYC sees 2-3”. What could go wrong [emoji23] .

Different outcome, but still a solid hit as you said. Doubt many of us would be upset if this played out verbatim with another shot at snow 3-4 days afterward - particularly along the I95 corridor. A foot of snow Christmas week with a very cold airmass in place for BWI. That’d be a huge win in my view. Nonetheless, some will still be like “damn, the phase was too late so we didn’t see a 1-2 footer”. If you’re living with a ‘KU or bust’ mantra living in the mid Atlantic in the year 2022, you’re literally begging for disappointment. .

Exactly mate. I’d take this look @ 500mb all damn day and roll the dice. We’re likely cashing in in some way shape or form by Christmas and new years, the question is do we hit the jackpot? Way too many folks getting caught up on differences in surface map outcomes on OP runs 8 days out. Just because the 12z GFS showed a foot of snow in our backyard and 3-6” a few runs later at 0z (due to fairly minute differences in timing / location / etc) doesn’t mean things are trending away from us. Not 8 days out. Folks deep down know better, but the emotions and anticipation get the best of em. Details such as timing, exact location of key features, the precise amount of western ridging and digging in the east, etc. will get ironed out as we get closer to the event. 5 days out or less is when these types of trends on OP runs should begin to either worry or excite us. There’s a reason these OP outcomes waffle so much at range. Ensembles are still very much the thing to lean on when you’re a week plus out from an event. Living and dying with each clown map from OP run to OP run is precisely why so many get let down. “But that one run 7-10 days out showed Frederick getting 30”, what a bust!” OY VEY, as my ancestors would say. The only thing we should be taking away from the last 24-48 hours is that pretty much the entire global suite has trended toward a strong signal for at least one SECS+ around Christmas, that there will be very cold air around, and that many in this sub will likely see at least an advisory level snowfall, if not more - in December - with at least another 2 chances on the heels of the 23rd-25th threat. We can’t ask for much more than that. The next 4 weeks could be special if the stars align. That’s the nature of living in this general area. I, for one, am not worrying about less digging from one run to the next 7+ days out, otherwise I’ll be burnt out long before the storm ever materializes. Let’s at least save the worrying about surface map outcomes for when OPs actually matter. So long as the GEFS and EPS are signaling a solid potential for a significant EC storm a week out, I am satisfied and will take each individual OP run with a grain of salt until the 18th or so. It’s all simply noise at this range.

My phone is channeling my inner snow weenie it appears. Heavy rain. Imagine it’d be freezing on surfaces if it wasn’t raining so hard. .

Talk about a gradient. 54” in orchard park. Less than 6” less than 20 mins away. Lol. .

That’s exactly why it will pan out. Sorry my friend .

Exactly. Give us a cold air source and an active pattern and let’s roll the dice. I’ll take that over last years warm and painful start any day of the week. .

What an incredible last 12 hours or so up here snow chasing in Buffalo. .