jayyy

38 and drizzly. Had a legit downpour roll through earlier. My folks who live about 30 miles NNW of NYC have 5” OTG with heavy snow falling. My mom texts me a picture of their backyard and says “I know you’re jealous”. NOT COOL MOM. NOT COOL. [emoji31]

But that’s not a foregone conclusion because of the date on the calendar. Our area has seen plenty of mid to late march snowstorms. And not just 3” storms which melt immediately, but legit 12”+ storms. Especially northern areas like ours. .

We haven’t had a legit block, 50/50, and suppressed SER all season though. The -NAO is looking like a lock. Should get a -EPO for a time too to supply cold air. A very active jet will drag the boundary south along the way. I get why people are apprehensive. This season has been god awful, but we aren’t going to fail simply because we failed before. The pattern is completely different and we finally have the mechanisms needed to overcome the PAC (which will be less hostile, especially with the decaying niña) instead of having to rely on ridiculously lucky timing. As PSU said, we have a legit reason to be excited this time around. The prior 10 day teases were Hail Marys where you could see how we fail from a mile away. Mirages, so to speak. The EPS and GEFS, while somewhat different in how they get there, are both honking. This is pretty much the first HECS signal we’ve had in years. I get the fear of getting burned. I feel it too. But I do think this the best chance we’ve had all winter, by a long shot. Go big or go home. Rooting for an absolute monster that brings us near climo in one shot.

Headed up there this weekend. Pretty pumped .

The difference is negligible though. Freezing temps and rates will win every time. Melting rate is really the only issue .

The pattern is completely different. -NAO -EPO a 50/50 low and a squashed SER. We have a much better shot at snow between now and march 20th than we have had all winter. People are just jaded. Hard to blame them. .

The Sun angle is the same in New York and they’re getting 2 feet between now and Friday. It’s nonsense. Same with the “it’s too warm leading in” notion. I’ve seen it snow in April (higher “sun angle” than now) and 1 day after it was 60 degrees. Both of those late season excuses are untrue. It isn’t harder to snow in late march because of the sun angle. It’s harder to snow in late march because it’s generally less cold and we’re out of peak climo. Longer days could have an effect (more hours of sunlight) but not sun angle. If it’s 30-33 and snowing hard enough, it’ll accumulate, no matter when it happens.

March 10-15th is the timeframe I’m eyeing for our potential biggie. If we can’t score there, I’m not sure we score at all. .

Yeesh. Rough past 36 hours models wise. Think I’m going to have to go up to New York a day earlier than originally planned though. No part of me wants to drive through a rager in my sedan. .

I’m headed up to NY from the 3rd-5th. Non storm related but excited that the timing lines up nonetheless. If you can make it happen, it’s good for the weenie soul. .

It’s encouraging the see both the EPS and GEFS annihilate the SER around the 10th. Just hope it holds. Combine that with legit blocking, and that’s how we overcome the PAC.

Imagine that. It’s the weather. Minute details matter immensely during a marginal event. .

IF this pans out in the timeframe depicted above, we’ll likely get one shot at a biggie. It’s early enough to make some magic happen. If it’s kicked down the road to the end of march, maybe not, and we watch nyc to Boston have an epic backend.

This isn’t “much warmer” and it’s the best look we’ve had all season outside of December’s -NAO -AO +PNA regime (which was still a fail) It’s cold enough and workable for snow. There is a very major difference here versus what we’ve been dealing with. Notice the southeast ridge is non existent? Can thank the feature out in the pacific for that. It causes just enough of a reaction in the SW that the SER ends up getting squashed entirely, allowing the boundary to finally settle further south. This should be the best window of the season with an active STJ, suppressed SER, an eroding Niña, and a legit -NAO. . Feature X is what I’m referring to. Causes Y, which then squashes the SER (Z) IF this look pans out, we could get that long awaited KU

6z nam inbound. Little out of range but curious to see how the setup looks leading in around 72hr .

It’s a good thing we’re still 5 days out .

Driving up to the NYC area with my wife Friday morning to see my folks for a few hours before heading upstate in the late afternoon. Have a surprise bday party slated for Saturday morning. Not very excited about going to the bday party (my wife’s friend isn’t my cup of tea) but if I can be in a winter wonderland, count me in. Between Monday’s storm and next weekend, they could have two feet OTG by Saturday night. Nonetheless, rooting for the storm to hit our area. We need it. One more sizable shift south and we’re in the game for a few inches at least. Cards are undoubtedly stacked against us though. Liking the setup for the following week better as the boundary will be further south

Cmc and NAVGEM are the only two models that currently show a favorable outcome. What could go wrong .

00z ICON for shits and giggles. What a bomb .

Models have honed in on general solutions around day 5 all winter long. Especially at h5. The problem is that every threat has trended the wrong way in that timeframe and eventually failed. This time we’re seeing the opposite (aside from the GFS) occur, where most models are getting more bullish as we get closer. The euro and CMC at D5-6 getting significantly better is a good sign, especially with ensemble support. It is nice to see the hit camp be bigger than the fail camp for a change. Still about 72 hours out from getting too excited about this though given our propensity to fail this winter.

Nope .

Models were never really depicting very cold air. Just a workable pattern with blocking, the boundary dragging south, and the SER suppressed for a window of time. Timing has always been paramount for this window to work. It’s march… we’re not going to get heart of climo type departures when we’re banking on the NAO with a suppressed SER to do most of the dirty work for us.

There is something to be said here. We often get the “biggies” (6-12+) on the tail end of mature blocks as the NAO heads toward neutral. PSU is also right about needing some luck to score when we see a -NAO initially take hold. There’s a week or so lag downstream (often takes a storm or two to drag the boundary south) We don’t typically see snowstorms within the first few days of a block setting up, and the biggies often occur on the tail end. Would be nice to also score a moderate event as the block is entrenched If we can manage one biggie plus an advisory to low end warning event over the next 3 weeks, the metros could manage a 50-60% climo year despite how awful this winter has been. That’d be an absolute win given how stacked the cards have been against us. The problem is we still have to overcome a hostile PAC, which could limit our chances. .

Looks pretty much as depicted. Zoom out. Plenty of precip to our SW

It’ll drop with precip .