jayyy

Most of the time, the OP GFS will hang onto the SE Solution longer than others. December was the perfect example. We’re still too far out to know where the GFS will land on next weeks threat. The GEFS doesn’t match the OP whatsoever, which to me means the GFS will waffle a bunch more before it hones in on a general solution around D5. This is all pretty standard given the range we’re in right now (D9-d10) My guess is the GFS waffles back toward a more SE solution over the next few days, which is it’s typical bias in a progressive pattern. It looks completely out to lunch given the wide array of outcomes it’s spitting out from run to run. At this range, I’m looking at the GEFS and EPS. Using the OP GFS is a fools errand 10 days out. I’ll start looking at the OP Euro in the D5-D7 range. Until then, OP runs are meaningless to me. Sticking to this general schematic leaves me heartbroken a lot less frequently than most weenies… Days 8-10 (GEFS / EPS ensembles) Days 5-7 (euro, with a lean on the CMC/Ukie for similarity confirmation) Days 3-5 (GFS / Euro - less euro as we approach D3) Days 1-3 (NAM / GFS - outcome typically splits the two in some way shape or form) It’s not perfect, but it utilizes the strengths of each model @ a given range, while leaning on a few other models to see if they show similar evolutions at H5/500 for some semblance of confirmation that the outcome could have some weight to it. A lot of folks look for the coldest / snowiest solution at any given range, which is a method that’s equivalent to begging for heartbreak. Any model out on its own island, especially in the long range, should be a red flag. Details aren’t very important at range. Yesterday, we had several models showing the general idea of a storm in the 175+hr range - which is enough to peak my interest. I don’t truly get excited for a potential threat until we enter the D5’ish range. If the OP Euro at D5 generally shows what the EPS/GEFS combo was showing prior, that’s typically a pretty solid signal that something is on the horizon. For me personally, anything before that is simply noise and the models doing their jobs - which is to calculate all possible outcomes. That’s why the GFS jumps from a multi foot blizzard to a warm / rainy cutter every damn time from the D10 range. It’s simply establishing the envelop of outcomes. .

I don’t think this is true whatsoever. The midatlantic doesn’t do complicated well. Complicated setups often result in things coming together too early (cutter) or too late (NYC to BOS special) Some of our best patterns (feb 2010 for instance) were simple setups with a cold high entrenched to our north and a storm track that took storms off the NC VA coast. The “geography of our area” is exactly why we typically need simple for things to work. When we start talking Miller b’s, triple phases, bomb cyclones, yada yada… the likelihood of failure goes up exponentially. There’s a reason we typically do better with overrunning events and Miller A’s than we do with Miller B’s. The former is simpler than the latter. .

Absolutely not. The GFS has always had a SE / progressive bias. Not sure how much that’s changed since the upgrade but that’s always been the case pre upgrade. If a storm is cutting well NW of us on the GFS in a relatively progressive pattern, that’s usually a failure in the making. .

I’ll take flat and progressive this far out (system sliding south) over seeing flush hits 9-10 days out any day of the week. The trend this years been fairly consistent. Things tend to look more amplified as we get closer. D5 has been the sweet spot for when models begin to converge on the details. Flat and out to sea to our south at D9 sounds fine to me. Plenty of room and time for things to trend our way. I’d be more concerned if it was showing a big storm this far out, knowing full well it won’t hold for a week and a half. .

Or… it’ll show a workable pattern again at 0z tonight [emoji23] The GEFS dropped 40” for the DC - Bal Corridor between now and February 3rd less than 48 hours ago. I don’t trust any model from 384 out, ensemble or otherwise. All of the waffling we’re seeing day to day on long range models indicates a pattern shift is definitely coming. I wouldn’t read much into the specifics until we get closer, as we’ve seen a crazy spread in outcomes over the past few days alone. Remember, ensembles like the GEFS showed us getting a MECS+ during last weeks outbreak only 7 days out, only to see the storm run 1,000 miles west of here. Hard to say models have a grasp on much of anything, especially in the 384hr timeframe. IMO, models have been struggling pretty hard with how they’re handling the PAC. The difference day to day, even run to run is pretty stark.

It can snow from late October through April, which is the wild part about that area. I was a freshman at UB the year of the ‘October storm’. I also witnessed it snow around 18” during finals week (the last week of April) one year; a day after it was nearly 60 degrees. The temp swings up that way are pretty wild. Never saw an event quite like “snownovember” (2014) or last week’s storm during my time up there, but saw plenty of 2-3 footers from LES and some fantastic synoptic snows as well. Most people don’t realize that they do synoptic snowfall well up there too. LES is the larger early season punch as the lakes are much warmer in November - mid January, but once you get into late season (feb into late march when the lake is mostly frozen) they also still cash in on powerful Low Pressure systems as spring and winter air masses collide over the plains and Great Lakes. They perform well during App runners, and clippers also serve them quite well. They even fail well, because there’s typically a backdoor cold front and an LES chance behind any storm that runs to their WNW so long as the lake isn’t frozen over. Can’t tell you how many times I witnessed rain to heavy snow events during the 5 years I lived in the Buffalo area. I love it here in the higher elevations of carroll county near the Fredrick cty line - but man, do I miss some of those epic winters up in the Great Lakes too. .

I’ll take p16 on storm 3 too. .

We take! And would you look at that, it all spawns from a simpler setup than we had in December too. Never fails. .

Most of the events we see come from workable looks and not epic looks, tbh. Epic setups at 500 (PNA NAO AO EPO, etc) leaves NYC buried more often than us. Our area seems to like setups that produce sneaky events - overperforming on WAA, clippers that slow down and bomb out, etc. Give me a sneaky low riding along a cold front that just passed south of us a day or two earlier over trying to thread the needle on a Miller B or having to bank on enough ridging out west to allow a storm to bomb out in the right spot. Idk why, but we seem to do best when we least expect it. Our latitude likes simple. Give me some help in the pacific and a high up north and I’ll gladly roll the dice.

Jeez, this thread went down the shitter. Let’s move the back and forth about average snowfall and global warming elsewhere please. There is a banter and panic room thread. Please use it if you’re going to going into defcon mode 7 days into winter. There is zero evidence that the days of seeing solid winters in the MA is over. The mid Atlantic to northeast had a pretty epic run from the mid 90s into the early 2000s and again from 2010-2015, minus a handful of truly crummy winters. To all of a sudden say the “long term trends are alarming” isn’t a sincere analysis based on fact. It’s mainly based on feelings about a lackluster past 6ish years. And even that depends on location. Northern MD has actually fared pretty well during some of those winters. Does it suck that DC didn’t get in on the fun? Of course it does. But that’s the nature of living in a marginal climate where your average snowfall for any given season is roughly 20”. Sometimes you’re going to have an extended period of bad luck / outcomes when a degree or two and 50 miles makes all of the difference. Meanwhile, Buffalo is at 100” for the winter and it’s December 27th. The weather is unpredictable like that. Where I’m from in the lower Hudson valley had an awesome stretch of above average seasons (snowfall) from 2000-2015, minus a few duds, with a good number of the past century’s top KUs occurring in that timeframe. We can’t honestly look at the past 20 or so winters and say “welp, guess we’re screwed forever”. That’s nonsense. Can’t wait to flip back to +ENSO state and to get our mod. Niño so this crapola about it never snowing again can finally stop.

Before the #reload ?! [emoji23][emoji23] .

Shoutout to @Cape for all of the mid to long term ensemble analysis! If we do get snow by the 10th, it’s because this gent willed it into existence. .

Would have been a bad place to stay for sure. When there are SW winds forecasted, staying in between downtown Buffalo and the airport is the best place to be. WNW winds aloft is more ideal for orchard park / west Seneca areas. That’s the norm, so they tend to see more LES throughout the winter over areas NE of the lake (downtown up to Niagara falls) but when the SW fetch DOES line up, downtown Buffalo and 15-20 miles north gets crushed due to an elongated fetch over Erie. SW winds happen less often, but they produce the heaviest rates. I lived up there during the “October storm”. Very similar setup. Unreal event to witness.

Not a huge ask. But we honestly don’t even need all of that to see a solid snowfall or to have an above average winter. The problem for us the past few years is that pretty much every single setup has been a wild game of chess which requires threading the needle— phases, TPV splits, perfect ridging, Miller B’s, etc. The MidAtlantic doesn’t do complicated well. How many fails do we need to experience for folks to understand this? If ONE piece of the puzzle doesn’t evolve exactly as needed, it’s over for 90+% of the CWA. Storms either cut west or come together too late for our latitude, and weenies are left heartbroken because a few runs 7-10 days out showed flush hits. All we really need in these parts is the Bob Chill setup: An entrenched cold dome with energy sliding W to E (even NW to SE) underneath us. Some of our best wintry periods in the past 10-20 years have come from simple setups during peak climo (late Jan thru late feb) Give us a nice cold dome (preferably bleeding down from north of here — Quebec for instance - not the Midwest) and an active jet that brings energy from the west coast to the Delmarva, and let’s roll the dice. Snowmaggedon in feb 2010 is an easy example. It evolved from a pretty simple pattern. Pt 1 evolved from energy that moved from Baja CA to Delmarva which overran a fresh cold airmass, and part 2 evolved from a clipper that intensified off the coast. All made possible by an entrenched cold air mass and a jet that pushed storms just south of here. I’d take the simple BCP (bob chill pattern) over the pattern we just had any day of the week. We just had what many would call the “ideal setup” -NAO/AO, +PNA, -EPO and it resulted in nothing more than snow tv for a few hours for most of the sub. Too many moving parts - so we need a near perfect evolution at 500/H5 for areawide snowfalls to materialize. That setup is typically great for NYC to BOS, not DC to PHL. It’s pretty clear that marginal events go our way less often nowadays - whether its a result of GW or not is anyone’s guess. Because of this, we don’t really want complicated. Complicated typically means marginal. Keep it simple, and snow will come in due time. I’d rather rack up several easy 3-6/4-8” type storms from a simple pattern to reach or exceed climo than try to bank on seeing a KU to save winter because we’re attempting to thread the needle for 3 straight months. There’s a reason we do well and over-perform during simple overrunning (WAA) events and fail most of the time when we expect a big storm to evolve from a ton of moving pieces — our latitude prefers simple.

I’d take P27 at this point honestly if it meant something would materialize for majority of folks! A few inches would make anyone happy after a big dry spell (insert joke here)

Exactly! I lived through a few blizzard warnings in the lower Hudson valley that called for 1-3 feet PLUS the strong winds (typically in the 35-40mph range) from some of the epic nor’easters of the 90s and early 2000s, but certainly never 4-5 feet and 70 mph wind gusts. Down here in the MA, we tend to get either WSW’s for heavy snow accumulations, or blizzard warnings for the wind but rarely do we see BWs for both the winds AND heavy snow accumulation - and def. nowhere near that magnitude of either.

4 degrees with a -16 real feel. Unreal. .

My buddy has lived there his entire life and said to me quote, I have never seen it snow this hard in 42 years. Their blizzard warning has been upped to 4-5 feet for downtown and the immediate suburbs .

Traced! At least it’s not 0.0” [emoji41] .

Unreal lake effect coming off Erie right now with lake shore flooding. What a scene. My buddy just sent me a video from his house in Cheektowaga NY. Can’t see at all out his windows. 3” per hour rates with winds near 50mph. 2-3 feet of snow PLUS this bitter cold and wind is as wintry as it gets. .

My friend near Saratoga springs NY, north of Albany, was at 54 less than an hour ago while it’s 10 here in union bridge. What a weird front .

Couldn’t disagree more considering it’s an airmass that’s coming in before Christmas. Not in late January. It’s unimpressive in terms of the airmass sticking around, but the temp drop and winds are legit. DCA could set a Christmas low record. That’s noteworthy in its own right. The fact that it’s 22 here and 45 where my parents live in the lower Hudson valley in NY is pretty rad. .

My power just went out for about 10 minutes. The winds are whipping up this way!

Gotta love HCPSS closing tomorrow! .

Show us young Jedi .