jayyy

There is almost ALWAYS going to be a rise in heights ahead of a trough that big swinging east. That’s how the physics works. So long as the progression continues east, it’s precisely what we want to see at this range from the ensembles. Two frames later, the block and 50/50 helps annihilate the SER. It’s literally gone. The success rate of this is certainly nowhere near 100%, but we’ve gotten our hopes up all winter long during patterns that were 10% as good as this. Praying for perfect timing and threading the needle when the 500mb setup screamed no chance in hell (PSU has gotten shit for pointing it out all winter) Tracking til the bitter end despite the writing being on the wall a week beforehand. I don’t think anyone’s saying we’re guaranteed to see a HECS. BUT this is sure as heck the best 500mb setup and chance we’ve had in a LONG time. We don’t need perfect to score a nice storm. You rarely get a perfect setup. There’s always one or two factors that could potentially throw a wrench in the outcome, but the most important deterministic factors are on our side for once. This warrants excitement. No problem with being cautious though. It’s understandable given how this winter has gone for us.

Dry isn’t a worry right now. That jet is very active and will only get more active. .

Whew. Glad it was just due to a bit of a delay in timing. .

Stop it with these LR clown maps Ji. Funny to see that 31” inch total right over my parents house in Rockland county NY though just NW of NYC [emoji23] probably won’t turn out that way, but considering just how awful this winter has been for them, if that were to pan out, they’d be above 40” for the season including Monday’s storm.

00z EPS vs 12z in the same timeframe.

Yeah, this weekends storm isn’t it for the NYC metro or really any area within 100 miles of the coastline. It makes perfect sense too given where we are in the progression of the pattern change. I commend some people’s optimism that it’ll somehow trend south at the last second, but where we are in the progression of the 500mb pattern is not conducive of such a trend. A newly formed -NAO alone won’t get it done. The prime window is from the 10th onward with the western trough finally pushing east, a more established Greenland block, a squashed SER, and the MJO pushing into phase 8. This weekend’s storm becomes a bombed out ocean low (hello 50/50) which alongside the Greenland block forms a textbook rex-block around the 10-12th timeframe. That progression is the key to the KU kingdom. This weekend is simply too early on in the process to deliver the goods.

https://www.weather.gov/media/crp/Ensembles_Anomalies_Analogs_Buchanan.pdf Nice resource from NWS discussing ensembles and how they operate. (Biases, strengths, challenges, etc) Had no idea there was an ensemble that’s a GEFS / GEPS combo. Unsure how reliable it is, but new info for me nonetheless.

The 10th is a specific threat I’d argue. But… I do think the 12th-14th’ish onward has a higher probability of producing what we’re all craving. Late season aside.

Man, this hobby is truly fucking exhausting. I’m just going to focus on my weekend trip to Albany and enjoy and hopefully when I get back, we’re all rejoicing. I definitely can’t take 10-14 days more of this back and forth shit lol I say we ban any screenshots of OP runs past 7-10 days - whether the outcome is good or bad. It’d probably save us all a ton of anxiety [emoji23]

The 00z GEPS squashed the living shit out of the SER and even attempts some ridging along the WC. I really want to see the 00z EPS for the 10th onward at 500mb. Not the OP. Zero shot we were going to see the OP show and hold a snowstorm setup 10+ days out. Now.. if the EPS took a big step in the wrong direction, that’d be worrisome .

Meh.. that’s the OP. I call bullshit. Curious what the ensemble has to say. We’re 10+ days out. As PSU said earlier, the difference between a storm off the coast and a cutter at this range is noise. Especially on an OP run 10+ days out. If the EPS looks like shit too, I’ll begin to worry.

Rexblock FTW. If that trough ejects east off the west coast, we’re in the game. With the Greenland block looking as advertised, I don’t see how that energy doesn’t boot east. It’s already starting to move east as depicted above (on the 9th) and by the 12th, it should be in the Midwest. Few kinks to iron out here, but boy… this is by far our best chance since December. Señorita niña sure picked the right time to keel over, finally allowing the MJO to both strengthen and head into phase 8. If it remains there for 3-4 weeks like the Euro is currently showing, I’d be pretty surprised if we dud. It’d truly be the ultimate kick in the ole gonads to see suppression be the reason why we fail if this pattern indeed unfolds as the euro is depicting.

EC and GFS have the MJO in phase 8 (very strong) for the entirety of the month of march. Heads into phase 1 by April 1st or so. Composite analogs for march neutral ENSO phase 8 is tasty. No denying that. It all sounds fantastic in theory. Just hoping the ingredients come together for our latitude and we don’t watch PHL to BOS get buried all month. .

I loathe him but it’s a solid video. I’ll give him that .

Come on euro. Do your thang Remember way back when, when it used to snow? [emoji23]The Euro and Canadian would sniff the biggies out early, the GFS would be completely out to lunch and then get dragged on board in the D5-6 range… perhaps were seeing a throwback this go around. One can hope!

lol, if I see another D10 control mean snow map… [emoji23] .

Me likey the trend on the GEFS tonight. The storm in question may be 10+ days out, but the progression at 500 mb that will make or break our chances for a biggie is only about 5-6 days out. GEFS taking a big step toward the EPS/GEPS (as they hold steady) was encouraging to see. Now let’s see a solid 00z eps and keep this train rolling.

Sweet. Now @Heisy can breathe .

Plenty of sub 980, multiple 950s, and a 948 mixed in there. Talk about a bomb

12z EPS had some insanely strong lows off the east coast for the 10th. We may be too far south for that one, but man… a sub 950 low would be something alright.

00z GFS 10:1 map for this weekends storm. This one isn’t ours but the 10th onward should hopefully be game time with a much a more favorable boundary setup, legit. blocking, and a -EPO in place. Screw it. I’m going to try to be optimistic. It’s our last window of opportunity (a good one at that) and we have quite literally nothing to lose. .

New and improved chuck is the man! .

Plenty of areas in Rockland, northern westchester, orange, Putnam and SW CT all will verify their 6-8” warnings. NWS did a great job actually. 6.5” in the northern part of new city

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But prior failures occurred for specific reasons, none of which should be in play this time around. I get why you’re skeptical of us getting snow. But none of the forecasted patterns featured THIS combination of teleconnections. A legit west based NAO with a TPV underneath, a 50/50, a -EPO/WPO and suppressed SER. The niña is also decaying with a phase 8 MJO. These factors should keep the reasons we previously failed at bay. It’s not like we were projected to see legit blocking and a —EPO previously and they just didn’t pan out. We were banking on timing and small windows where things were somewhat workable with a handful of shitty teleconnections still in play. We also have shorter wavelengths now, which will also help. I get why folks are skeptical / jaded from this winter. But I don’t buy the whole we failed before so we’ll fail again mantra. We failed for very specific reasons, mainly the PAC and SER and a complete lack of blocking to attempt to overcome those factors. Perhaps we get unlucky and we don’t see snow, but this is by far our best pattern of the winter season. There’s a reason PSU shrugged off every single one of those potential windows and is optimistic for this one.