jayyy

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Was that the OP? .

Never fails ^ - except the times when it does. .

This is the most insane clown map I’ve ever seen lmao. Clearly a stalled CCB band .

Sadly we’re like 3 days from Nam range [emoji23] .

Winchester to Union bridge death band babaaaay .

I like the boundary depicted here for our parts. Keep the coldest air to our NNW. We get shellacked with temps between 28-32F as multiple waves ride along the boundary ESE of our CWA. Hey, a dude can dream. .

Ended up being a disjointed mess. 2 pieces of energy instead of a decent shield of precip. Eek

Definitely a colder look there than we saw a day ago. Hmmm! Tomorrows runs will be interesting. .

I think we all got burnt pretty badly by that ordeal! You’re not alone there. That was honestly the final straw for me on looking too closely at any threat outside of D5ish. Ill look at ensembles through D10 or so to get a general idea on the overall setup being depicted at 500mb (even that changes a lot of the time) but trying to decipher details such as phase timing, surface low track, exact position of a high up north, energy transfers, ridge axis, etc? ON OPERATIONAL MODELS? Heck no. Why get so emotionally invested in something that will change literally 100x between then and game time. I’m getting too old for all of that anxiety. Have a decent feeling about someone seeing a solid couple inches out of this Sun night ordeal between my area and yours the way things are trending atm. Nothing crazy, but 1-2” sounds good to me.

Hook a brother up with a snapshot (if you’re able!) I’m currently driving home from WV .

That’s what I’m talking about! If I can squeeze an inch of snow out of this and see flakes fall for a few hours, I’d be happy. I swear, most of our snows seem to happen when we least expect it or when we’ve written a threat off and moved on to the “next potential”. Tracking storms D10 and beyond is for the birds. Idc how much models have improved over the years.. no one can convince me that models fully know how to decipher a given setup when most of the players in question are nowhere near being onshore. Models depend on data - and until they have that data, they are simply guessing how things will shake out to the best of their ability. Certainly that ability has improved over time, but it’s nowhere near perfect. We see booms on the regular in these parts - especially during overrunning events Models can’t even agree on this Sunday ordeal (48 hours out) yet folks are committing weenie suicide run to run over the 15th ordeal. Makes no logical sense to me. Let’s reel this sucker in! .

I’ll go with p26. P30 from earlier smoked the northern tier but left the cities with a smaller, yet still respectable snow. If this is going to pan out and be a biggie, I hope as many of us as possible get smoked. .

Sure, I’ve “seen worse” too, but we need the high way SW of where it is given the lack of cold air in Canada to have any shot with a marginal airmass. Just north of NY/CA border would be much better. .

That high pressure in Canada is in a shitty position for starters. .

LOL, just as I post this… we get another huge change in a subsequent run. Point = proven. Precisely why we shouldn’t care about minute details this far out. It’ll probably lose it at 18z and get it back at 0z

All we need is the ICONs temp profile (which is on its own island) with the GFS’s track (basically on its own island too). What could go wrong? [emoji23] - joking. In all seriousness, not a great set of runs so far today, but again, we’re mainly discussing OPs from 8 days out. They’ll change at 18z, 0z, and then again tomorrow, etc. No use in getting too worked up about it. Yesterday we saw the cash in side of the outcome envelop. Today we’re seeing the opposite. I also don’t love the idea of analyzing a secondary storm which partially depends on what an initial storm does from this range - especially when neither piece of energy is onshore yet. Models are missing far too much data to get an accurate picture of the players on the field for a storm over a week out. They aren’t even in agreement on the 8th-9th small ordeal yet [emoji2369] Peeping at the 6z GEFS, which I give far more weight to than the GFS or ICON at this range, there’s still a shot. Timing needs to be near perfect though, otherwise there’s virtually no cold air to work with…. which is a tall ask in these parts. A full phase could also do the trick. A few of the individual members get it done with proper timing, but most panels are a swing and a miss. Can’t say I like the way things look at this point, but I also can’t say with any semblance of confidence that this is the way things will look by the time the 8-9th rolls around. We could see a situation like last January where the storm sneaks up on us in the D5 range once models get a better grasp of what we’re dealing with up top.

Wonder if it’s attempting a Miller b’esque transfer to a coastal there .

I’d take this all day. 2-4” for many would be a welcome sight. Our VA brethren wouldn’t be thrilled though. .

0.4” of QPF from an ensemble is weak sauce? Interesting. .

@Ji you probably hate the GFS because you start hugging it 5+ days before you should ever start taking it’s outcomes with anything more than a grain of salt. The main system we’re all tracking as the potential “biggie” is what, 9 days out? And depends partially on what the first system does. Until models - especially OPs - get that data, they are simply spitting out a wide envelop of outcomes - which is their literal purpose. Analyzing slight differences in the heights out west or the strength of the 50/50 low in SE Canada is also a waste of time this far out. Are the players still on the field? Yes. Is there still a storm? Yes. That’s all that really matters right now. We won’t get meaningful details nailed down until we are closer to the 9th-10th timeframe, and even then, we are simply shrinking the outcome envelope. Stick with a blend of the ensembles this far out (heaviest lean on EPS) to get a general idea of the setup at 500/H5. Parsing details any farther than that is a complete waste of your time. They will change 50 times between now and the 14th. What looks crappier now may very well look good tomorrow, and then back to crappy the run after. When the outcome for us is dependent on so many factors, there is literally NO USE in obsessing over the details at D9. .

That’d be quite the NYC screw job - hypothetically speaking. .

It’s too far out for BC to get invested. He doesn’t track storms outside of the D5-7 window nowadays. .

Let’s get into the D7ish range with that look on the ensemble and we may be in business! After that, we look for the Euro OP to show something similar in the D5-D7 range and the GFS inside D5. That’s when we know things could truly be coming together. All of that aside, if we’re just analyzing THIS run, it doesn’t really get much better than that. That’s likely a slow mover too. .

I’d rather have the low tracking too far to our SE at this range than it show a flush hit given the 500mb evolution. Plenty of room for things to work out with this setup. Maybe it’s not a KU, but it’s likely somethin’. Now let’s get some ensemble support. .