jayyy

Helluva signal for New York and NE. I guess if this time period were to fail, which who knows if it will, it would be because we’re too far south and NYC to BOS sees an epic to historic winter finale. Think that’s always been the far more likely fail scenario than suppression.

Also, side question… and I know it tip toes near the “don’t talk about this” topic, but do the effects of AGW make it harder for these storms out west to stay relatively weak as they attempt to traverse east? Making it harder for them to swing under the block?Larger temp gradient = more amplification = we’re in trouble. Just a random thought. I know it’s silly to correlate such a topic to specific weather events, but the trend has been undeniable all season, which is a larger sample size. These SW out west just strengthen and dig and refuse to slide east, which inevitably screws things up @ H5 on our side of the country. Or is that more of a product of the Niña, unhelpful PAC, Aleutian situation, etc?

Just read a shit load of posts / poo-poo’ing about the GEFS and EPS, but what did the GEPS have to say today? I’ve been at work. .

But the niña isn’t what it was earlier this season. That bitch is all but dead. It’s a tough emotional rollercoaster when everything’s failed us all winter. I get it. Im there too. But we’ve also failed over and over in the midst of a MISERABLE longwave pattern. Outside of a few 2-3 day windows where we had a potential thread the needle opportunity arise, that pattern has persisted since January. PSU hammered down on that point all winter long. We failed because the setup was god awful and we were praying for things to work out in a setup with a near 0 success rate for our region. For the first time in 5 months, we are heading into a strong MJO phase 8. We have blocking, a 50/50 low, etc. La Niña is also finally dying out. The atmosphere is going through a complete overhaul, so I REALLY think we need to be patient with models at this range. There is little chance they are going to be able to nail down these details at range or be consistent in how they analyze them. Initialization is pretty crucial to any given models output, and they are initializing in a completely different pattern. This all matters. Which is why we need to step back and analyze the teleconnections and the evolution at 500mb, and allow the OPs to figure themselves out along the way. Even the fail solutions are WILDLY different from run to run. This gives me near zero confidence that their outcomes are correct either. Not saying we HECS, but I see zero consistency, which means we need to be patient.

I suspect he may have a life to live outside of calming down weenies. He also does so in two forums.

Ensembles do look good. Some look VERY good. Saying otherwise would be a flat out lie. Your inability to not live and die by snowfall maps and OP runs at 10+ days isn’t Brooklyn’s problem. Don’t be a jabroni.

I know your name is stormtracker, but I didn’t mean you [emoji23]

We haven’t had the mechanisms in place to kick the WC trough east all season though. We all have PTSD. That much is very, very clear. .

Thank you. I get people are snow starved but FFS, if folks can’t handle the run to run fluctuations on OPs, stop tracking 8-15 day threats 4x a day. We’re talking day 1 stuff here; not living and dying by OP runs and controls at long range, or getting mad at a 240+ hour clown maps. There is NO world where the euro, Canadian, gfs or any other model’s OP (at long range) shows a consistent solution. The fact that the EPS / GEPS have held strong and the GEFS has trended in their direction is all we need to know. It takes very small changes up top to completely change the outcome of an OP run. The difference between a bomb off the coast or a bomb running through PA is noise at range on an OP. IF the ensembles start trending the wrong way and deterministic players start looking unfavorable, THEN we can start worrying. Considering how complex the setup is, the consistency of the EPS & GEPS has been pretty remarkable. Breathe y’all.

This is why I said last night that I’m pissed cmc showed a massive dead hit blizzard. Any OP run that shows otherwise will have people freaking out. Wait. For. The. Ensembles. Fuckers.

Can we get the other Ji back?

PSU just literally said otherwise [emoji23]

Hopefully that slug drops thermals. I know I know, noise details at range but I want my model porn damn it

Going to be pretty cool to drive north through this storm later on. Should be all rain here this afternoon, a mix as we get to the lower Hudson valley, and a paste bomb in upstate NY. Edit — sleet pingers are so loud I can hear it bouncing off the roof at work

Nice!! Enjoy that front end white .

What’s your location?

Pingers at work in Columbia looks like light snow at home in Union bridge on the cams, but it could be sleety

When the OP doesn’t match the Ensemble whatsoever… ya toss that shit. .

Differences seem pretty negligible at this range. Those two maps are nearly identical. At least it’s digging a tiny bit more.

WWA for 5-9” where I’m heading this weekend. Man, must be REAL nice to have climo where 5-9” is considered advisory level. Fuckers. Alright, @brooklynwx99 , let’s reel this sucker in. The sanity of snow starved weenies depends on it! (Myself included) .

Show us damn it!

Do you understand how a mean works? Stop obsessing over snow totals on clown maps man. You know better.

Can’t wait for tomorrow when the OP CMC doesn’t show 3 feet of snow (which is completely fine and normal this far out) and people have major meltdowns saying it’s “caving” and falling apart. [emoji58] I, for one, kinda hope it shows a more suppressed storm over the coming few days, so it can make the inevitable jog north to jackpot us come game time. I’d actually be more worried if it showed us jackpotted over the next few days, as we know that look won’t hold for a week and we’ll end up watching NYC get buried. The important thing is that the GEFS has taken a major leap toward the EPS and GEPS. Now let’s reel this baby in. We have two legit threats to track over the coming two weeks. Amen!

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What a thread @stormtracker .