jayyy

The ICON tries to make something happen with wave #2. Boundary doesn’t push far enough south on this run for most of us verbatim (mainly an interior special) but minute details this far out are pretty irrelevant. The chance is definitely there, but we’ll need a lot to go right to cash in.

??? .

Don’t think that’s true actually. .

Pics or it didn’t happen .

I’d take a giant ass trough parked over the EC for all of March with winter / spring air masses battling it out nearby. We’d likely get snow out of that. April is probably what you’re referring to, which is when we’ll be 10 degrees below average with above average rainfall. [emoji23] .

The pronouncement of the SER is going to waffle more than Ji over the next week and change on guidance. .

Agreed. Sure, it’s the worst period ever, but a given period has to hold that title. The fact that it’s happening now sucks, but that doesn’t mean that we’re stuck in this rut forever. It took 50 years for the worst period of all time to change from the 70s to the current period. To me, that has zero bearing on whether or not 2023-2040 will be a good or bad period from a historical standpoint and it doesn’t give us the WHY. If it was true that a historically bad period means we’re doomed forever, then 2000-2015 wouldn’t have been as epic as it was. I don’t see a cause and effect there. We won’t have a hostile pac, or AMO, or some of these other factors in place forever. We can’t make blanket predictions about the future based on what we’re seeing right now. The longwave pattern has been trash for the better part of 6 years. Sure, we’ve had periods of relief from a hostile PAC and some of these other shitty factors (NAO, AO, SER) but they’ve been short lived. A week or two of relief at a time isn’t going to cut it when we’re talking about SO MANY factors working against us. We need a prolonged period of change, otherwise we’re left needing to see everything go right to MAYBE squeeze an event or two out a favorable 500mb setup. When a -EPO, -NAO, +PNA forms, we don’t see an immediate effect. It doesn’t get cold and snowy the next day. It takes some time for these patterns to affect us downstream, and by the time it does, things are already beginning to falling apart. When it doesn’t pan out, we’re left waiting for another period of “relief” That’s no way to achieve a sustained change back toward the norm. Here’s to hoping this our last historically shitty winter for a while. This board needs an epic winter. .

Winter quite literally ends during the 3rd week of march, so yeah, it’s a winter month. Living in the lower Hudson valley in NY most of my life, we had plenty of late march into early April snows. Some of which stuck around for multiple days. When I was in Buffalo for college, I experienced a 18”snowfall during the last week of APRIL and it was just as wonderful as December snow. I guess it’s a mindset thing, but for me - snow is snow. Fuck rooting against it because of the date it falls on. .

Woke up to a beautiful scene during my travels for work here in upstate NY. WWA up for 3-5” locally I almost forgot what snow looked like for a moment. .

Keep the faith ladies. Have a pretty good feeling that we’ll be able to eek a win or two out of this upcoming pattern. My main concern is the duration of said pattern change. How long do we get the -EPO and some relief from the PAC onslaught? Do we get a couple of weeks? A few days? That’s my main concern. Any relief we’ve gotten from the PAC as of late has been very short lived. Hoping we can get at least 2-3 workable setups out of this. Nice to see the GEFS move toward the EPS / GEPS over the last couple of days and not the other way around. .

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I actually like the 25th. Storm #2 after #1 (likely) cuts west and (hopefully) provides us with a temporary 50/50 to push the boundary south. Another domino effect type storm, but that seems to be the best we can hope for right now with this threat. .

I actually don’t mind W/E overrunning type events. We tend to do well and even overperform with these types of setups. Give me a cold dome & some solid CAD with a trailing SLP coming from the Tennessee valley and I’ll gladly roll the dice. I cringe more when I hear the words phasing, redevelopment, ridge / trough axis, etc. That’s when you know we need things to be near perfect (particularly with a hostile PAC) The problem is that the PAC is not allowing any cold air to remain entrenched. There’s also virtually 0 snowpack to our N/NW to draw any cold air into the NW flank of storms that are otherwise taking nice tracks but still giving us cold rain. Generally speaking though, I don’t mind boundary setups. I just don’t like that being the only way we can score. .

They’re not meaningless, they just shouldn’t be relied upon. Ensembles have dozens of individual members - some of which show decent hits for some of these systems, which is why the mean / average shows a few inches. The problem is… we keep ending up verifying the snowless members of these ensembles. No model is meant to be fully leaned on, we know this. They are simply hypothetical outcomes and tools to use in conjunction with one another to assess the most probable outcome. If the GEFS mean shows 3”, but the EPS and CMC show 0”, it’s likely we end up at or near 0”. If the other models agree or show something similar, perhaps the GEFS mean is onto something. The issue is people find a model with a desirable outcome and hug it. They also don’t understand what a “mean” is or what ensembles are actually used for. .

It’s the GEFS, but yeah, desperate times mang. .

I like the 23-25th window for some potential wintry weather. At the moment it appears to be a back to back storm situation where we’re going to have to rely on the first storm (likely a cutter) to be a make-shift 50/50, which could in turn force the storm track south of us for storm #2 and keep enough cold air in place to make something happen. Another “we need the timing to be right” ordeal doesn’t sound great obviously, but it is our next “threat” nonetheless. .

EPS or bust .

That’s my take on it too. I don’t think we’ve lost the ability to get where we need to be. We’ve just seen an epically long period of the PAC overwhelming the living shit out of our climo. Can’t wait for this never ending niña to go away. .

Agreed. You’re definitely right about the TPV. When it displaced southeast in late December, we got some epic cold for 3 days and then it scoured out awfully quickly, which is of little help when we’re looking for snow. I’d much rather have it stay put and throw workable cold air our way (EPS) then overwhelm us and then scour out (GEFS) Being in the 30s with snow chances for a couple weeks sounds much better than a few days in the teens and being bone dry. .

Firm believer that the base state, and the resulting hostile PAC, is to blame for our woes. I don’t believe that we can’t do prolonged cold and snow in our parts anymore, but it is becoming quite clear that the PAC has a lot more influence than it used to. So long as it’s puking like a hungover college kid, we are sitting ducks tracking scraps via long range ensembles. We’ve primarily been dealing with niña conditions and an overwhelming PAC since 2016, outside of a few periods when it has “relaxed”. I do agree that if we can’t get more than a few days of relief from the PACs onslaught, it may be time to throw in the towel on tracking this season and pick back up next winter when it looks like we will finally be in a much more friendly longwave pattern. #modoki I’ll gladly enjoy a surprise snowfall or two if we can manage it in February, but it’s getting exhausting tracking these potential windows of PAC relief 14-21 days out, just to see them disappear as we get closer or only pan out for a few days at a time. .

The CFS has been pretty terrible though. If it were right in the 2-3 week range, we would have had an epic mid December into January. .

Lots of confluence between LR ensembles this go around. Obviously things can change, but we may finally get the pac relief we’ve so desperately needed .

The entire key to our snow issue. A prolonged base state (and therefor PAC ) issue. Simple as that really. Can’t get prolonged cold, entrenched 50/50s etc, when you’re dealing with an overpowering cross flow all the time. Once the pac gets beat down, it’s game time. .

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

YAWN