jayyy

See you all at 0z for @stormtracker ’s PBP .

The GFS has been Good For Shit this winter. NAM and ICON had a setup closer to the Euro / Ukmet for wave 1. Let me see that 00z Euro & Ukie tonight. If they look like the GFS, I’ll lower my already small expectation for wave 1. If the euro looks good, we live to fight another day on the initial wave One thing we know for sure is that the evolution of wave 2 will be pretty dependent on how wave 1 unfolds. Not interested whatsoever in the current surface depictions of wave 2 at this juncture. Models haven’t yet honed in on what wave 1 will do. Zero shot I give any credence to what they show for wave 2. Euro / Ukie are really the only major OP models with any semblance of credibility that are in their prime range for wave 1. And while the NAM at 84 and beyond is WAY outside of its wheelhouse, it may be catching on to the first 48-60 hours most accurately, which arguably looked best of any model for our area at 500mb. I’m curious to see how it looks at 00z tonight. If it shows a similar first 60 or so hours, perhaps it’s onto something.

The mere existence of a SER isn’t a game ender. If it’s squashed, we can still fair okay. Ya deb. .

Or a 384 OP GFS run .

Christmas 2015 - 80 degrees January 2016 - 4 feet of snow! We need some more amnesia in these parts! [emoji6] .

Bingo. Mid to late December isn’t the dead of winter or prime climo season. February is our snowiest month, incase anyone forgot. .

He’s somehow extrapolating surface temps from 500mb charts, which is as noob of a move as it gets. .

Yeah, I’ve heard of “atmospheric memory”, but when the setups are entirely different at 500mb, there’s no “memory” to tap from. I’ve experienced 60 and rain to 25-30F and snow within days of each other numerous times in my life. Ive seen rain in January and snow in April. If atmospheric memory is legit, how did that happen? Did the atmosphere develop temporary amnesia? If atmospheric memory was legit, we’d see one weather type or pattern all season long. It’s pretty much nonsense, as any reasonable analysis of our weather over the years would tell you. How many times have you seen drastic weather changes within days of each other living in this area? How can you possibly say atmospheric memory is a thing.

It would probably do your weather driven mood swings some good to keep your focuses on 1 wave at a time Ji. Excited to depressed to posting 384hr digital blue for comfort [emoji23] .

Desperate times call for extrapolation. .

Because how December turned out has any bearing on how late January will turn out? Not saying it will come to fruition, but December is irrelevant as to whether or not it does. If that were the case we’d exclusively see either see wall to wall snowfest winters or 0” winters. Both of which rarely occur historically.

2 of the 3 waves in question are within 7 days, but who’s counting? [emoji23] I understand his skepticism though. My brother lives right by him and they’ve gotten shafted pretty hard over the past several years. Bomb cyclones missing to the east, a 50” winter 25-30 miles to their north in 2020… it’s been a rough stretch for those parts. Their time will come, but it’s no surprise that people living in that area are extremely skeptical. OSU will also be the first one to act like a little school boy on their first snow day once something pans out lmao .

00z tonight (euro, ukie, and to a small extend the GFS - mainly as a means of comparison) will be pretty telling as far as where things are possibly headed for wave 1. I’m typically blending the Euro and UKMET at this range, analyzing the 500mb setup and the storm’s general evolution. Less worried about verbatim temp profiles and snow output on individual OP runs or ensemble means. The 500mb/h5 evolution will tell us everything we need to know about how this 1st wave will turn out from a snow perspective. If it’s a continued improvement and move toward a coastal solution due to delayed NS interaction, we’re still in the game. Especially in NW areas. If it bounces back toward phasing the NS early, then meh. The air mass is just SO marginal leading in that we really cannot afford any phasing to occur to our west. The only way this works out to be a legit snowstorm for most of the subforum is if it phases south of our area - a needle that’s going to be hard to thread. If there’s no phase at all, a dominant southern stream driven feature could yield a good track, but it’s likely primarily rain for anyone within 40 miles of 95 due to a lack of cold air to tap in to. This is why having snowpack to our N/NW is so crucial. Lack thereof makes marginal that much harder. The trend over the past 60-72 hours has been undeniable, but sometimes we get a move back the other way as we approach D5 (medium range) as models tighten the envelop. The wide array of outcomes among individual members means this thing is nowhere near locked in. That isn’t necessarily a good or bad thing at this juncture, but it’s why I’m not getting overly excited at the Euro printing a foot plus between now and the 26th IMBY. There’s still a ton of unknowns. Same goes for ensembles when it comes to looking at the overall pattern from the 23rd on. Day 5 has been where the various desired pattern changes we’ve been hunting have started to unravel - mainly because they’ve underestimated the SER. If the GEFS GEPS and EPS hold strong with their positive trends over the next 48 hours, I’ll start to get legitimately excited for the 7-10 day window starting around 1/23. We could REALLY use a -NAO to keep things locked in and to throw a wrench in the progressive regime that keeps ruining our setups. Would go a long way towards giving us a legit coastal threat late next week into early Feb (the Canadian ensemble was right on queue showing a near perfect -NAO [emoji23])

Ensemble mean* and the first threat is in the D5 window, Señor Deb. Really hope you get some snow soon man. You need it. .

Very much so. Not typically one for clown maps, but it shows a foot plus for my area and points WNW - which I’ll round down to a solid 4-8” threat if I’m being responsibly conservative. The window is just opening, so there’s plenty of room to get places like Western HOCO, western MOCO and northern Baltimore county in on the action with continued improvements. I’d be lying if I said I see wave 1 trending to a mostly snow solution for the 95 metro corridor. It’d have to take a helluva track, and even then, we’re talking about a pretty shitty airmass preceding it - temps in the mid 40s all week - and not much cold air to draw in from the north with a lack of snowpack anywhere within a 200+ mile radius of here. If this exact storm evolution occurred with a potential wave 2 (after an initial wave dragged the boundary south and laid down snow cover to the NW) I could see the pathway for the immediate metros. Certainly a long way away from a final solution, but you can’t fully discount the euro at D5. My interest = on the rise. My skepticism remains fairly high, however. Especially with this first wave. There’s a lot of timing that needs to go right here. Amplify / phase too early and our levels get scorched by a strong southerly component. Amplify too late and it’s a strung out mess. However… we’re due and all that, so maybe we can thread that needle as far as the NS and SS are concerned. Certainly seen crazier things happen. .

P21 would be a shutter-upper. .

Very curious to see what some of the OP runs show at 00z tonight, mainly the euro. We are beginning to enter the OP euro’s wheelhouse (D5ish) for Monday. Going to be the hardest wave to cash in on, but there’s a chance the northern crew finally sees a respectable event if current trends toward a coastal solution hold. As PSU said, the following 2 waves have a much better shot at producing snow - especially for the metros and nearby suburbs - as the airmass gets better with each passing wave. There is a *chance* that the northern crew could cash in on all 3 waves in some way shape or form. I feel pretty decent about our chances to get something out of 2 out of the 3. If the move toward a coastal for wave 1 continues over the next 48 hours, my interest in it will certainly increase. I’m definitely most intrigued by waves 2 and 3. Besides having more cold air to tap into and there being snowpack to the NW from wave 1, they also have the best shot at slowing down and blowing up along the coast. If wave 1 ends up being a coastal wave like many ensembles are now trending toward and blows up to our NE, that has implications in dragging the boundary further south - which gives us a much better shot for the subsequent 2 waves. Proper spacing between waves and a good eventual track for wave 1 - even if it’s a slop fest as it rolls through here, could provide us the Atlantic side help we’ve so desperately needed. If wave 1 ends up blowing up somewhere near SE Canada, wave 2 and 3 could be cash ins. If wave 1 acts as a mechanism to slow things down a bit and not allow the cold air to scour out so quickly, we’re in business. Still a long way to go, but it feels good to at least be tracking the 5+ day window and not the 10-14+ day window. .

Storm #2 was the bigger storm for my area being up near NYC. Def one of my favorite storms from my time up in NY, alongside the 96 blizzard and PD 1&2. We all remember the 2/5 and 2/9 back to back storms, but many forget that we actually got hit by 3 nor’easters within a 15 day window and 4 for the season. EPIC winter. 2000-2010 was an incredible decade for the DC - BOS corridor. .

Gotta love seeing all of that flattening and confluence in New England popping up on ensembles the last few days. Seen a pretty epic shift in our direction over the past 48 hours. As PSU said, show me that same look at 0z Friday (Thursday night’s runs) and my interest will skyrocket. .

Not actually true. 2/9/10 (storm #2 of snowmaggedon) was an Alberta clipper which reintensified off the NJ coast. But who’s counting [emoji23] I very much miss the days of Alberta clippers. We used to get a solid amount of snow each year from them in the lower Hudson valley in NY. Each season, you’d usually see one or two blow up off the jersey / LI coast. Many would jackpot eastern Long Island to cape cod, but every so often we’d get a solid 4-8” jack just north of NYC if it bombed out in time.

Which clown cares more about digital snow than real snow? [emoji23] or gets completely deflated by a clown map printed by an OP model 9 days out? We REALLY need some snow out of this next window to bring the sanity back to this forum. It’s depressing AF in here. Glad to see models converging on the idea of a Bob Chill setup for the final week of January. Been saying this all winter long - it’s our best hope to see snow. Overrunning patterns are going to work out more often than banking on 8 variables to break our way. Cold air dome + an active jet out of the SW riding waves underneath us = key to success. If we can get some blocking to slow things down, perhaps we see one of these storms blow up along the coast.

I’m actually pretty intrigued by the 23rd potential for my latitude. I know the 95 and metro crew isn’t going to be thrilled, but the northern crew definitely has a shot at some snow during that appetizer storm. .

Perfect spot to be 9 days out honestly? .

Been saying this all winter long. We’re not going to win out 9/10 times with complicated setups. There’s just been so much working against us in the longwave pattern. We need a window where the PAC chills out (our advertised -EPO) which would in turn relax the constant W-E flow which keeps eroding every cold air mass we get. This would in turn allow the boundary to get pulled south and for us to score a win or two with an active jet. Models seem to be converging on the idea of us seeing a period where we have a relaxed PAC, a cold air source, and an active southern jet. If these all line up, we could see a few light to moderate events from storms riding the boundary south of us. IF we can also get a -NAO, as CAPE pointed out, that’s how we potentially get a more significant snowstorm out of this. .

Decent amount of agreement among models regarding there being snow chances in the window from the 23rd thru end of the month. Nice to see the potential within 7 days, instead of 10-14+ Could see a scenario where wave 1 (mostly rain) drags the boundary south, creating snow cover to our NW, with a possible second wave tracking shortly behind it with a fresh airmass to tap into. Especially if wave 1 acts as a quasi-50/50 to slow things down with proper spacing between waves. The expected -EPO and resulting relaxation of the hostile PAC could be the key ingredient we need to finally see a legit chance at snow as we’d finally get a small break from the very progressive flow we’ve dealt with all winter. I’m also not entirely sold on this idea of a wall to wall torch in February either. I’m fairly positive we see a warm up early on, as the PAC has ultimately won out all season long, but you can also see how we could get a “reload” of the pattern if a few things were to break our way. It’d be an uphill battle though and the chance of failure would certainly be pretty high leading in, as we’d have to bank on a mixture of good timing and some luck to make it work. This winter has been ROUGH, but a decent second half would go a long way toward bringing some sanity back to this board.