jayyy

General rule of thumb the last 2 winters…. if LR ensembles show a great pattern, it’ll likely fizzle as we get closer. If they show garbage, they verify [emoji23] in all seriousness…. If it is true that Señorita Niña is finally dying out by around late Feb into march, then perhaps we get lucky with a 3 week window of winter weather on the backend. We all know the affect that two very different air masses clashing has on producing large storms. While snow is generally tougher to come by late in the season, the big boy storms come out of the woodwork in that period as well. Who knows. I’ve learned not to discount anything at this point. .

Meanwhile it’s thunderstorming at my friends place in Toledo OH in mid January. Tells you everything you need to know about this shitshow of a Fall 2.0 we’re in. .

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Agreed. I know it’s not a perfect science and technology is improving as we go along… but my god. 45 and rain and 33 and 2-3” of snow IMBY is a pretty big spread 3 days out. Really hope 00z tonight into 12z tomorrow brings some clarity. .

GFS / NAM showing some snow for my area. Therefor I keep some hope alive I see an inch or two out of this. Any accumulating snow would be nice at this point honestly. I need some snow in my life. That 4-5” I saw up in Rochester NY held me over, but I need some hometown snow. Would I prefer an advisory to warning level snow? Of course. Will I celebrate a slushy 2” out of a low chance threat? Fucking right I will. .

Really hoping to see improvements at 00z tonight as we get closer to the 72 hour window. Especially on the GFS. Models should be beginning to line up over the next day or so. Pretty decent spread remains considering it’s D3ish

Shit, I’d take 2-3” and run with it. Especially out of the storm thats the least likely to pan out next week. Doubt the NAM scores a coup here, but it’s happened once or twice before. Likely another storm where it’s too cold / wet bias is skewing output.

My area and your area? Or Baltimore and DC? Because I feel like there’s a massive difference between our areas and the metro 95 corridor when it comes to December snow. I may be mistaken, but even in NYC, the immediate coast / 95 corridor struggles in December versus places 30-50+ miles inland. Can recall a good number of December storms where we got snow / mix in the lower Hudson valley (2-4/3-6” type storms) and they’d get rain SE of the NYS thruway (87/287 tends to be the fall line up there) Can also recall a few biggies where we saw a foot and they saw zilch. The Atlantic is just such a snow-killer that early on in the season. Even if all things line up correctly, getting a 2-4” storm or two in December still feels like a tough battle. Being near the coast is just a tough place to be for December snowfall. It’s just so hard to avoid that SE component, especially during storms that track close to the coast. The few metro December snows I remember in NYC were either clippers that dragged the boundary way south by tracking off the central NJ coast or coastal scrapers, which took a more offshore track but close enough to throw precip back into the area.

I think my area over to emittsburg and points WNW could catch some snow out of the Sunday - Mon event. The odds of a significant event are fading quickly, but I’m not ruling out a couple inches at this juncture. It’s too early to throw in the towel for my area. .

I didn’t forget December. 2-3 weeks of blocking isn’t much help in the grand scheme of the entire winter season. We also rarely get snow in December in these parts. That’s just our climo. Anyone who was expecting December to pop off had their expectations set way too high. It’s a rarity that we get snow before winter actually starts (12/21) over the past few decades. NYC? Sure. I saw a ton of December winter storms where I grew up. Many of them were very borderline. Many of them were also upstate specials and left the coastline wet. So much has to go right that early in the season for it to snow along the 95 metro corridor. The Atlantic is still so warm in December versus late January thru February. Any semblance of a SE fetch and we’re toast. These days were talking about record warmth in the Atlantic going into winter - which makes it even harder to snow in an already marginal climo setup.

Baltimore had a snowless winter in like ‘49. NYC has had them too. It happens man. It sucks donkey balls, but it happens. Some of it is just pure bad luck. The timing of cold and precip just isn’t there. When the southern jet gets active, there’s no cold air. When it shuts down, cold air arrives. Sometimes the odds just never work out. The odds of that happening are very slim, which is why it’s a rare occurrence, but it happens. The PAC is part of the problem, but we’ve gotten virtually zero Atlantic side help either this winter, which is why even Boston and NYC have gotten the screw job. IMO, this upcoming pattern screams NYC to BOS special. Likely not enough blocking for us, but they don’t need it as much as we do. The 0z cmc from last night was a perfect example. Wave 2 next week was a Miller B that hit NYC to BOS corridor pretty good - develops too late for us. We REALLY need a block. And not one that scours out in a day or two.

That’s wholly incorrect. Guarantee some of us see some snow out of this. Remember where some folks live in here. Don’t be salty man come on. Let’s keep it to tracking. .

NAM trio, RGEM, and FV3 all have 850s quite cold leading in on Sunday. NAM trying to spin up a low along the gulf coast at the end of the run with a HP over the Rockies. . Come on euro… do the damn thang!

GEFS will cave. .

Wave 2, part 2 Secondary takes over, intensifies into a 984 low along the NE coast. Too late for our area for the goods verbatim, but the NW crew does see some snow. Wave 2 is 7-8 days away however, so things will shift a ton between now and then. Never a good idea to worry too much about surface details from this far out. Could just as easily see the primary track further east and therefore see the secondary pop further east. Expecting a bunch of waffling over the next week, especially once wave 1 comes and goes and models begin to pick up on it’s impact on wave 2. Really hoping we see wave 1 lay the groundwork for wave 2 with it being only 2 days prior. Need that sucker to drag the boundary south [emoji1696]

Wave 2…. Part 1 Primary tracks into the OV with secondary beginning to take shape .

Wave 1 CMC .

00z CMC = close but no cigar for wave 1 with a low that tracks directly over Baltimore to NYC (slightly inland) Wave 2 is a Miller b - primary tracks to Ohio as a secondary low forms over the Carolina’s. Phasing happens too late and is an interior NE special Plenty of time for both to adjust a bunch of times, but that’s the verbatim outcome on tonight’s run. .

Come onnnn 00z Euro. Give us the goods .

That death-band over my parents house just outside NYC is insane on that run. .

Isn’t there a panic room thread? Jesus Ji. Get it together. .

228 OP surface depiction… what could go wrong .

Think we’ve got a shot from my area over to yours to see some decent snow with this Sunday storm. Yes, it’s the NAM at range, but I’m zeroing in on the look at 48-60 hours, which is well within NAMs wheelhouse. I like what I see so far. Hope to see the trend continue. .