jayyy

18z EPS, wave 2. 144 = day 6. Bring it.

Day 6 too. I’ll be damned.

Even hits my area with 5”+ in the elevations of N MD. Nice shift for wave 1 for sure. Day 4 is a great range to see improvements pop up on the EC. My folks live in Rockland county (new city) so I’m always in here and rooting for you guys as well. We all need some love these next 2 weeks.

I believe I read that Phase 8 transitioning into Phase 1 is best at the tail end of a niña (it’s all but dead) But a very strong phase 8 is far superior to the phase 5,6, and especially 7 horseshit we’ve been dealing with for so long . Phase 7 is a catastrophe for our area during a niña. Niña = dead, so the impact of each phase is slightly different. Ideally, we get to 1 (models say we should get there) but a strong 8 is the second best we could ask for. .

We can call that run Lieutenant Dan

Samsies. Perfect range for it to start swinging our way. I’d take 5”. Yeah, I said it. .

Perfect place to be? Just a bit too progressive at D8ish. .

lol, it’s ok Ralph. No need to get defensive. You’ve certainly been one of the few alongside me, PSU, cape and Brooklyn who’ve been optimistic. .

Depends on rates for sure. I watched it snow a foot this weekend with temps just above freezing. Rates overcame. Sure, it melted quick, but I’d take 1-3” up here from wave 1 in a heartbeat. Especially with wave 2 right on its heels. Rates would be a concern for sure. No models are showing the thump we’d need to overcome.

It was from NYC, and the frame before isn’t exactly a death sentence for our forum either. Plenty of lows in positions we can score in. I get what you’re saying, but that’s not really the case with what I shared.

Comparing means in completely different patterns. We had a garbage pattern all winter outside of a week or two in December. I get your pessimism. We all do. But saying it won’t play out simply because it didn’t before isn’t exactly a legit reason to downplay the possibility. I get it though man. It’s rough out here.

Trend is slowly being our friend for a change. Certainly not going to see the big hit JMAs been teasing us with for wave 1… but there’s enough time IMO for a 1-3” type event to come together like euro is depicting. Things coming together a bit too late / east at D4 isn’t an awful place to be given the seasonal trend of things amping up as we approach game time. Wave 2 and 3 are by far our better chance at something significant, but as a Highlander, I am certainly not going to write off wave 1 entirely at this range. No way.

Except the frame before is fine for us I’d say at this range. .

Who gives a shit where it comes from [emoji23] .

Waves 1&2 are officially now within 7 days

Storm 2

Storms 1&2 per 12z euro Love seeing pink and purples over my house here in northern MD. I am under 2” for the entire season. .

Still in phase 7. Not ideal for our snow chances. Hopefully we transition to 8 very shortly.

It’s rarely right, but fuck it’s been consistent for DAYS. .

Wave 2 per the CMC. Better look than wave 1 with the boundary setup further south. Wave 1 kickstarts the pattern and wave 2 follows on its heels with better conditions in place.

This was the 18z eps ensemble mean MSLP map. 0z coming soon. .

I think wave 2 is the one to really watch. One ushers in the cold air and ushers in the pattern, wave 2 gets it done. It’s far out, but some LR models are also showing a wave 3. Wave train coming. .

lol already calling the pattern a fail and the period in question hasn’t happened yet. Perhaps wait for the futility posts until the end of the month Like our chances on 2/3 waves in question before the 21st

Close (18z) Let’s see what 00z has in store

Too far east but same idea applies for me