jayyy

Not a horrible spread. Could be better of course, but nice to see some snow to our south on some of these members for a change! I’d rather see some suppression than a flush hit or the rain/snow line over us at this range.

Ok, now THIS is in range to pay attention to being around day 5 (1/31) with a second wave on its heels (2/2) The euro was obviously weenie porn for feb 5th, and an appetizer system (or two) to lay down snowpack around 1/31 would be ideal leading into that 2/2-2/5 window. Some models had a 1/31 threat some days back and lost it, but it appears the signal is returning. .

It’s ridiculous man. It’s 1/25, models can’t get anything right outside of D7-10 and waffle back and forth every 6 hours, yet people are like “welp… February and early March are a lost cause!” Perhaps our bad luck continues and the rest of the winter is a shutout, but let’s analyze as we go along and not fill this thread up with the doom and gloom talk 24/7. We have a place for that on this subforum. I know it sucks not getting snow, and yeah, it’s been bad before but “never quite this bad”, but I don’t fully buy that. It hasn’t been “quite this bad” since we began keeping records, and the periods that were awful during record keeping years were pretty damn close to being THIS bad. 6, even 10” of snow in any given direction when analyzing annual mean historic snowfall isn’t cause to jump off a bridge and say it’ll never snow again or say that we’ll never see a great winter again. That’s often the difference between hitting or missing on one nor’easter. Last year was also rough holistically, but like cape said… we could have just as easily seen a 25-30” winter along the 95 corridor with some very minor tweaks to any given setup. We actually had a sustained period of cold and snow chances, but many of them hit NW, NE, or E of 90%+ of this sub. We had a ton of very near misses. YES, let’s use this thread to analyze patterns and be brutally honest about what they mean for our weather, which as of late has typically meant no snow, but the incessant need to always say “we’re fucked” is speaking out of pure emotion. Let’s keep that talk in banter and the will it ever snow again thread. The doom and gloom is exhausting. I’m not talking about seeing an ensemble run and stating why a person thinks it means it’ll be hard to snow. That’s what this thread is for. I’m talking about the constant “it’s over” banter and talk of CC/AGW or how shitty the MA is for snow that follows that analysis. This thread thrives when we analyze and have good discussions about teleconnections, 500mb patterns, etc. Otherwise we end up having to make another new thread after 1,000 posts because it’s another train wreck. Apologies for the rant, but it’s frustrating trying to parse through all of the bullshit when you’re just trying to find useful analysis from members / METS in a thread that’s meant to be for analysis, not our feelings about lack of snow. I’m just as frustrated as the next guy about our luck the past 2 winters, but it’s the weather, and snow does still exist if peoples souls truly need to go see it. I took a long weekend to visit some buddies in upstate NY and saw a nice 7” snowstorm. It was refreshing. Just hoping February into early march brings some snow so we this forum can get back on track. I appreciate folks like Cape, Heisy, PSU, brooklynwx, and others who attempt to analyze what they’re seeing on models and keep this thread on the tracks.

There was no scenario where we had a sustained window of cold and snow chances coming. February was always progged to be a rollercoaster month 2/1-2/9ish, then we warm up. Should be more chances mid to late month, with warmth sandwiched in between. The nature of the beast in a progressive regime with no blocking. We have no pacific ridge and a +NAO. A -EPO alone was never bringing us a 2+ week period of cold and snow. The second half of Feb into early march may actually be our best chance at snow with señorita Niña finally fading to a more neutral state and the NAO forecasted to go negative (it’s been positive virtually the entire time since 12/15) If we get some blocking in place, perhaps we score a late season coup. Not holding my breath til I see it happen though. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml ^ ENSO synopsis: Feb - April niña fades to neutral

I’m just curious what the point of having a banter thread is when 90+% of it happens on our mid to long range analysis thread. .

This thread is an absolute fucking shitshow. [emoji23] .

PSU’s concerns are valid though. It’s been the same song and dance all winter. Ensembles look good around D15 while OP runs are all over the place. Things begin to cave around D7-10, ensembles included. Having no blocking in place to counteract a SER that refuses to go more than 3-5 days without flexing its muscles is troublesome. It’s hard not to be skeptical when models (ensembles included) don’t show a mechanism to counteract what’s been our Achilles heel all winter; a progressive flow and a flexing SER. We all hope you’re right. As pessimistic as PSU has been, he’s clearly rooting for a good outcome. But he’s been right about all of these threats that continue to fall apart - almost all for the same reason. .

Agreed. Ensembles are way more important at this juncture anyway, which mostly show a workable setup. Glad that there will FINALLY be a snowpack in place in the mountains and points N/NW between now and next week, which we haven’t had most of the winter. Every bit helps. Let’s get some cold air nearby with a storm track to our south and the stars will align on one of these threats in due time.

Intensifying storm to our west… southerly flow… it was only a matter of time I’m afraid. .

Intensifying storm to our west… southerly flow… it was only a matter of time I’m afraid. .

SN+ Radar is juiced for NW zones. Let’s see how long we stay snow. .

34.5 and snow. Nice band moving through currently .

GEFS/GEPS around the 10th says the SER pumps to kingdom come. 540 line up to nearly Canada. Guess there’s some time for things to adjust but yeesh, we can’t get anything more than a 5 day window for snow these days and that window is looking progressively worse for the first week of February. Hopefully the mid to late month flip CAPE has been talking about is legit. .

Not concerned about exactly placement of digital blue at this range, but the Latest GFS tracks two consecutive storms south of us next week. Verbatim.. Wave 1 is rain and brings the boundary south enough to get us some snow out of wave 2. However, the biggest seasonal trend of underestimating the SER would very likely kill chance 2 also if this exact scenario were to play out. Wave 3? It’s an amped cutter. Obviously it’s an OP run, long range, and will change, but nothing about this run excites me. All I see are a ton of ways to fail.

At least this storm will create a snowpack to our NW for the threat next week.. [emoji2369] .

Over here waiting on the effects of the earths inner core not spinning anymore on our snow totals going forward [emoji23] .

Agreed! Very active storm track and cold air around to our NW with a building snowpack in places like PA NY and the Midwest. Wouldn’t take much to get something out of that pattern. We don’t need extravagant to get a workable pattern. Simple works best for us most of the time, especially during years where the SER is so dominant. .

Like so! Weaker wave meets cold air. Our levels don’t get torched and we get snow. This is what we need to kick off a potential window of wintry weather. Some snowpack and a storm to move the boundary south.

.

Feels like I’m beating a dead horse at this point, but there’s a reason I’ve been hoping for this type of overrunning boundary pattern into a cold air dome. Yeah, we all want the KU, especially after a torturous last 24 months, but during a year where any semblance of amplification pumps the SER ridge up like a gym rat on roids and cuts storms to our west, I’d rather see weaker waves ride south of here and dump 2-4/3-6 than try to thread the needle with a stronger low approaching from the SW. It’s just not our year for strong Miller A’s and it’s pretty much never out year for Miller B’s given our latitude. Who knows, perhaps we get lucky with a blowup off the coast of VA with one of these weaker lows along the boundary. Let’s get some cold air in place and an active storm track to our south. The rest will sort itself out. I’m tired of praying we’re going to thread the needle because models 10-15 days out have a few runs where it works out that way, just to watch it fall apart in the 5-7 day range..

Meanwhile… in northern Texas and central Oklahoma…. [emoji849] .

Oklahoma City has a warning up for 3-6” of snow. We can’t spare an inch. This winters been rough man. NYC and BOS are also about to get the shaft on this next one.

I’m just going to stay in upstate NY at this point [emoji23] for fucks sake .

Such a beautiful area! I may or may not be contemplating staying until tomorrow. 6-12” watch up! .

Ended up with 7.5” in east Saratoga springs. Heading back home tomorrow. Hope to bring winter home to Maryland with me [emoji1696][emoji1696] .