jayyy

“I’ve done a shit load of research and have come to the conclusion that no matter how many favorable teleconnections are setup, there will always be something to fuck it up for us” - winter 22-23 .

On the bright side, UKMET says sorry to NYC and Boston as well. Rough 36 hours for the NYC metro sheesh. Places just inland around 287 went from 40” to 2” within a day and a half on this model.

Other models drive a primary up into freaking Ohio… then we see a coastal low up too far east for us that bombs out south of NE. Appears that the JMA says nope, we’re going to keep the primary show to the south and ride it up the coast. GFS gives most of us a paltry .1 QPF. I know JMA is trash, but what the actual fuck lol Only 48-72 hours out

The above QPF map is the result…. .5”-1” QPF from North Carolina through DC, Baltimore, philly… 1”+ in ENJ, NYC, and SNE and damn near 1.75” for LI Completely different evolution than every other model. I know it’s a trash model but good lord. 6z GFS by comparison gives the mid Atlantic near Virginia and Maryland 0.1 of QPF. Crazy how it can be so wrong only 2 days out. Perhaps it’s a lack of data.

At hour 72 (12 hour intervals on the JMA) we have a tucked in low south of Long Island. One can only infer that the JMA tracked that low in Georgia up the coastline. (Miller A style)

The JMA is almost laughable at this point. We’re talking about being a mere 48-72 hours out from the most important part of the evolution of the 14th storm. Check this out… here’s 48hr. We have a low down along the GULF states

.5 - 1” of QPF happens. Lmao.

Frame 2…. 72 hours. What happens in the 12 hours in between?

LOL, is the JMA serious? 48-72 hours out from the storm’s evolution and it’s showing a Miller A? Frame 1 @ 48

Only 240 hours out. What could go wrong? [emoji38]

If the 17th and/or 21st waves pan out, they’ll be dubbed the PSU storms

Complete bust coming for my folks area (new city). 3-6” advisory lowered to 2-5” but I doubt they even see 1-2” at this rate. RGEM was spot on.

Yep. Of course the chances are lower than in January - February… but it’s certainly not impossible. The setup is much better for us for the 17th and 21st waves for the reasons PSU has been laying out for the past week or two. A SS driven storm versus a NS driven storm gives us a much better shot at seeing an earlier coastal develop. Late season makes it hard, but not impossible. I’ve seen plenty of late march / early April snows before. Location of course helps, but I won’t be fully tapping out until after the 25th or so.

Pretty big bust tonight for my parents area NW of NYC. NWS had an advisory up for 3-6” earlier, but they’re at 39 degrees with rain currently. If they manage to flip, they MAY get an inch or two if they get lucky.

Now let’s look at the wave around the 20th… VERY similar longwave setup, except there’s no NS feature to over-complicate things. Instead, we are left with a robust SS wave that can run underneath and blow up early. What you’re left with is tonight’s 00z Canadian. A storm that develops and blows up off the SE coast and runs up the coastline. It seems like a small difference in the grand scheme of things, but it has massive implications downstream. If the 17th and 21st waves have the above setup at H5, we’re in business. The fail risk is the timing (late march versus early to mid march) but it’s feasible. The NS is destroying this 14th threat for NYC and points SW.

The setup for the 14th…. A Pacific trough, some riding popping out west, -NAO, and a 50/50. Prime setup right? Yes…. except for one thing. That pesky feature marked X. It ruins things. Why? It’s a NS wave running nearly parallel with the SS wave. For this to work, X needs to lead Y in the flow and dig. X was not present on most models over the past week (like on the GFS / GEFS,) and that’s why it showed the desired outcome for NYC. It’s now catching up the the reality of a NS driven Miller B sadly.

It’s snowed in late march before. Over a foot in DC actually. And my area can certainly get crushed in late march. Not everyone lives where you live bud.

If this storm unfolded as depicted… originating over FL and riding the coast like that with a 50-50 and blocking in place, we’d be talking more than 3-5”

FRAME 2…. BOOM

This is why a SS driven storm is MUCH better. This evolution would bring respectable snow to the entire DC to BOS corridor Frame 1 ….

Tracks right up the coast. Absolute prime setup .

This is a prime example of the Euro’s bias providing NYC with a heartbreaking mirage in the mid range (D4-5) We have seen this song and dance before over the years with these setups. This setup mimics almost every other previous Miller B fail for NYC proper and points SW. It’s not impossible, but so much needs to go right for DC BAL PHL and NYC to score big in a NS driven Miller b setup. A NS driven miller B plays directly into the Euro’s over-amplification bias. It’s tendency to blow up lows too quickly / far west is why it showed a biggie, even for the lowlands. In reality, a NS driven Miller B is more likely to develop just too far east due to how far north the primary gets and the angle at which the NS digs leading in. If this were a SS driven setup, BAL to BOS would be getting crushed with a metropolis wide foot +. The wave 3 threat (St Paddy’s) and wave 4 (march 20-22nd) has always been the better window due to the NS’s influence being quelled. The ensembles showed this pretty clearly earlier today. The longwave pattern is nearly identical as the 13-14th, except those 2 waves form in a SS driven regime, allowing the coastals to develop earlier and the precip shield to expand / strengthen in time for the metros to cash in. It’s not impossible to cash in, but the NAM GFS Euro RGEM etc. are trending the wrong way for a reason.

But it’s not just the NAM or GFS. Euro also isn’t good for the metro.

They’re falling apart up there. Ukmet was the peak last night showing insane totals

Our latitude will probably get 2 shots at something relatively significant. Waves 3 and 4, and perhaps a bomb at the tail end of the pattern as blocking breaks down. Give me two 3-6” type events and I’ll be happier than a pig in shit all things considered