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jayyy

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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. jayyy
    The RGEM is so consistent. Really hope it scores a coup Bar set at 0.1” by NWS so we can’t be disappointed [emoji1787]
  2. jayyy
    RGEM has been insanely consistent, while other models keep waffling run to run, so I’m curious what its handling differently versus other models. Not saying it’s right.. especially being on an island with the ICON…but curious nonetheless. For you seasoned gurus in here, what leads to its better outcome for the area?
  3. jayyy
    RGEM / ICON say yes, GFS NAM Euro say no… what could go wrong [emoji23]
  4. jayyy
    First NAM run im paying attention to for wave 1 coming up here shortly. Would love to see it be near the RGEM .
  5. jayyy
    18z GFS was close initially and things slid south from here. Plenty of time for precip to bump north, but with this comes warmer temps - which are already dangerously borderline. .
  6. jayyy
    Creeping closer. P16 would make some folks happy for sure .
  7. jayyy
    It’s an oddly accurate model too .
  8. jayyy
    Only fitting that CAPEtown gets jacked as depicted for all of the hard work he’s done tracking this period. .
  9. jayyy
    I’ll take it. 1-2” is better than nada .
  10. jayyy
    doesn’t appear so .
  11. jayyy
    Go Canada [emoji1063] .
  12. jayyy
    Now I need to go look .
  13. jayyy
    Beautiful home! .
  14. jayyy
    From your experience, do ensembles or OPs tend to have a better handle on things in the D1-D5 range? I only ask because I wonder how using operating models in the very short term would impact those probabilities, if at all. .
  15. jayyy
    It’s not like anything’s fallen apart that looked good from 10+ days out this season…. Oh wait [emoji23] .
  16. jayyy
    Curious to see if GFS and Euro follow the seasonal trend and move things north over the next 48 hours. Still outside of NAMs
  17. jayyy
    I’d take this run verbatim for your area over to time any day of the week - warning level snowfall and then some ice accretion on top, but I’m honestly rooting for everybody. Our chances are sparse as is, so it’d be nice to get as many people on board as possible (ALA moving that band east over the heart of the subforum) Probably a pipe dream, but I’m trying to be optimistic. .
  18. jayyy
    That low gets to 970mb just NE of the benchmark with precip spanning from Maine to NC. Precip / temp details aside, that’s an impressive storm. If there was a high to the north to supply cold air and slow things down a bit… WOOF. It’s a quick mover, which limits its upside, but it packs a nice punch. .
  19. jayyy
    Canadian also has a more robust wave and pushes precip way further north with a better placed High at the canadian border. .
  20. jayyy
    euro pushes precip south of here .
  21. jayyy
    RGEM is juiced and north .
  22. jayyy
    It is interesting to see the GFS/Euro focus on the southern part of the area, while the ICON RGEM and Canadian focus things further north. Euro plops a HP in Ohio, which appears to push the wave south. I’m just as snow hungry as the next weenie, but being on the wrong side of a Euro/GFS vs. RGEM/Icon/CMC fight is probably not the place we want to be. NAM is a sheered out mess too. .
  23. jayyy
    I’ll take what the RGEM is smoking for $20 please. .
  24. jayyy
    06z GFS tries to being the 2/5 wave up the coast, but it skirts offshore too far south. .
  25. jayyy
    0c down at the VA / NC border too. Plenty of cold air to work with with a 1037 high there. Come on baby, let’s reel one of these suckers in. Was hoping to cash in in some capacity on a couple of these waves, but it may be the final wave leading into a pattern shift which could produce our first legit areawide snowfall. Those are often the bigger waves too and we certainly aren’t foreign to pattern shift storms in these parts.
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