jayyy

Hahaha of course it mini jacks my backyard .

I’m off work in Columbia at 9 tonight and have to be back at work at 4:30am, so it made more sense to stay at my brothers place tonight than to drive all the way back to union bridge and back just a few hours later. Kind of glad it worked out that way now that I think about it since he’s further south. Not often you say that but… it appears that’s the case this go around. Bring on the flizzard!

Models converging on a few hours of snow and the mood is so much better in here. All it takes is 1 inch….. (@ravensrule ) .

DP is 26 IMBY currently, so I’d say that’s probably accurate. Current obs: 36/26 with 70% humidity 30.20 inHg pressure .

It’s also showing hour 0.5 on HRRR versus the current radar. 30 min difference, so the systems a bit further east on the HRRR? Not [emoji817] on that though .

Agreed. It’s nearly identical. If anything, MAYBE a smidge more moisture than the radar shows but barely. Last run was also very close, but had a TINY bit less moisture than the radar was indicating. Perhaps a difference of virga? Not sure. But I’d call it pretty spot on overall. .

To the naked eye on my cell phone, the main driver of the differences between models / individual runs doesn’t seem to be track. All of the models show something pretty similar in that regard. The difference seems to be whether or not the low is more or less organized and whether the wave gets torn apart by the Apps. The solutions with a more organized wave have a more mature precip shield. Snow is definitely heavier and the extent of the precip shield is further north. CMC HRR ICON all look pretty decent for CMD and points S and E. The latest HRRR adjusted north with the precip shield, but the track itself remained pretty identical. 2-4 hours of heavy snow for the DC - BAL corridor per the HRRR would leave a lot of folks smiling - minor event or not. Would be really nice to see us come out on the winning side of a potential wave, even if it’s not a biggie. Loss after loss after loss when you’re tracking is just as depressing than the lack of snow itself. .

A wise woman once said to enjoy it while you can!

Sure was .

Rapidly approaching nowcast time in tracking the actual wave and not models, outside of the HRRR or 3K NAM. Last second adjustments to get us an inch. Gotta love it. [emoji23] Someone just outside DC (cooler) to Columbia over to CAPE may get 2” out of this if all goes right. .

Happening now! Light snow at 36 Edit - 35F

Triple phaser or bust? .

LOL, models this AM are terrible for 90+% of us. CAPEs area has the best shot at some snow as the wave hits the water and intensifies. Can’t even cash in on a few hours of snow. Yeesh. .

Bingo .

Helluva lot better than earlier today .

Show me young Jedi .

I’d argue that there are more hits on the GEFS than at 12z. The problem is that this can fail multiple ways. Temps, a poor track, or possible lack of moisture if energy gets eaten up by the Apps. Other models which show lackluster solutions have one or more of these scenarios playing out. Really hope we can thread the needle and at least get a wintry scene across the CWA .

I assume he means because of the spread among ensemble members. They mostly show either a hit with a couple inches or zilch.

Fixed. .

There’s actually a decent # of members with pretty solid depictions on the GEFS. Issue is there are far too many strikeouts to balance the shit scale back to neutral.

I think the creation of the “will it ever snow again” thread as a result of this epically shitty winter qualifies

With the occasional dick joke.

ensemble member 2 clearly will pan out. (The second member 2 at the bottom) NOT .

No .

RGEM 1-3/2-4 for many. VERBATIM, up to 5” in WV, with the second jackpot spanning from the DC ENE to CAPEtown and southern NJ. 2-3” in and around Baltimore. Some 4” totals just south of the city. Clearly the most juiced up model.