jayyy

Watching it snow to our south from a dynamic 850 as it primarily rains up here is the grand finale fuck you from old man winter lol. The euro lays down 1-1.5” out this way, but we’ll see. PS - I really dislike the idea of having to bank on march to salvage any part of this god awful winter, but LR models are showing a very solid look for early march and have been quite consistent with it. Problem is it’s still 3-4 weeks away and that could also go poof I also wouldn’t be terribly shocked if we saw an epic march if the niña dies out as forecasted and the PAC becomes much more favorable, especially if we get some much needed blocking. Why the fuck not right? We get a god awful meteorological winter and then it snows when people are ready for spring [emoji23]

NAM extrapolation, especially the 12k nam.. = useless .

Gfs has been very consistent since 18z. Can’t discount it entirely but we should definitely be proceeding with extreme caution with such an extreme island solution being depicted. Curious to see if it carries this solution through 0z and whether or not the euro trends this way today. We’re entering its prime range around D5, especially 00z tonight.

I’ll be in Ohio from 2/10-2/13 for Super Bowl weekend. It’s a yearly tradition where a bunch of my childhood friends get together just outside Toledo. That will be the weekend it finally snows here, watch! I got lucky when I went up to Albany and Rochester a few weeks back. Doubt it happens a third time. So, book it, between 2/10-2/13 we see an east coast snowstorm. .

We’re still in prime season for snow. All of February is wide open. Lets get through the next 4 weeks first, which appears to have at least 2 windows for snow chances.

Pretty confident we’ll get one nice storm to hang our hats on this winter over the next 4-5 weeks, even if it’s been a disappointing season wholistically. If BWI sees a foot of snow between now and April, it’d end up 8” shy of its annual average. In 2010, BWI saw 70+” of snow on the season. BWI only averages around 20” because shitty winters happen with a fair amount of regularity in these parts. Yeah yeah. It’s not been “this bad”, but it’s been awfully close plenty of times. Perhaps we do get shutout the rest of the winter, but to pretend like we know that because we’re salty about how December & January unfolded is a bit ridiculous. If the base state begins to turn less hostile toward mid to late month, as is being forecasted, we could certainly score a win or two on the backend of what’s been an otherwise awful winter. Weirder things have happened than getting a snowstorm or two in an overall shitty winter. See January 2016 for reference.

Sure is. I’m really not trying to be a dick, but that’s exactly what this thread is for. Analyzing the mid to LR pattern… good or bad. We all have the same feelings about this god awful winter, and we have a banter and an end of snow forever thread so that people can vent their frustrations about it. I honestly don’t get why some people come in here just to complain if they’re so certain it won’t snow again. It’s annoying to parse through all of that BS when attempting to read posts made by CAPE and others analyzing the LR.

That’s 9 days out too. Yeah, I know, “it’ll likely fade as we approach” but no one cares to hear seventeen people say the same thing or that it’ll never snow again every time a possible threat pops up. And I don’t mean PSU, who gives us well thought out posts about WHY and the meteorology behind it, but all of the other banter.

Made this point the other day. I get it’s been a shitty winter but it’s annoying as shit to come in to LR thread to see analysis and all you see is “it’s the end of snow as we know it” banter. For fucks sake. We have multiple other threads for that. Thank you for continuing to analyze every day, as painful as it’s been. .

So was January 2016. It was 80 on Christmas and it was quite warm after too. You’re telling me you wouldn’t jump for joy if we scored a nice storm during a shit pattern?

It’s the first day of February. It didn’t barely avoid anything quite yet lol .

Fat flakes starting to fall. Mulch, car tops, and deck caving. Gotta love it. .

Precip in and around DC right now (SW of downtown) looks like it means business. .

Respectable returns overhead near DC and N VA.

Car tops caving [emoji23][emoji1787]

We’ve got snow folks!!!! Let’s get it. .

No sheer from the Apps yet. Game on. Bring that precip over here sucka

We’re supposed to get 1” of snow, and this looks meh? I’m confused. What exactly were your expectations for the radar given forecasted totals? The radar actually looks pretty good for a dusting to 1”

Bullshit lol. The days of KUs aren’t over, give me a break. .

So the radar looks both meh and juiced. Intereeeesting .

I’ll be in ellicott city at my brothers for this one. I have to be back at work at 4:30 AM and didn’t feel like driving all the way back to UB at 9PM tonight to have to turn around and leave at 3:30ish to head to work in Columbia as it’s snowing. Welcome to the area though!! I’ll laugh if MBY somehow ends up beating out EC despite guidance showing otherwise. Would be my luck [emoji1787]

Good point made above. Rain on and off all day should minimize the amount of virga seen from this. The atmosphere certainly aint dry as it’s currently shvitzing out there at 34 degrees. .

35/30 in ellicott city 34/26 in union bridge .

Hard to say the radar doesn’t look good. Certainly wetter than most models showed less than 24 hours ago. The precip shield appears to be moving ENE and not due east. All positive signs. I guess the ?? for me is how much does the shield get shredded as it passes over the mountains .

NAM EURO GFS show the possibility of up to 1-2” for many. Fucking book it. Time to nowcast. .