There is something to be said here. We often get the “biggies” (6-12+) on the tail end of mature blocks as the NAO heads toward neutral. PSU is also right about needing some luck to score when we see a -NAO initially take hold. There’s a week or so lag downstream (often takes a storm or two to drag the boundary south) We don’t typically see snowstorms within the first few days of a block setting up, and the biggies often occur on the tail end. Would be nice to also score a moderate event as the block is entrenched If we can manage one biggie plus an advisory to low end warning event over the next 3 weeks, the metros could manage a 50-60% climo year despite how awful this winter has been. That’d be an absolute win given how stacked the cards have been against us. The problem is we still have to overcome a hostile PAC, which could limit our chances. .